(07-09-2017 09:15 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

<snip>

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.

Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....

I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts

so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.

Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.

Why are you expecting Kluber to have a 2.26 ERA? He'd have to be AMAZING the rest of the way. Like peak Kershaw

He would have to finish the season with about a 1.80 ERA in the 2nd half.

I look at the 2014 season where Kluber won the Cy Young.
1st half- he had a 3.01 ERA in 20 starts.
2nd half- he had a 1.73 ERA in 14 starts.

my point is simple. If he puts together a 2nd half like in 2014, Sale will have to be pretty damn good to beat that. Sale would have to pitch better than he has so far this year to be able to top that.

I think the race right now is pretty easy. If either Sale or Kluber has a great 2nd half, they're going to win the award.