(04-18-2017 10:40 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:59 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.

good call, forgot his ERA was 2.95. I guess when I take another look at it, things don't appear to be in his favor. The BB rate will go up and the strand rate will worsen too. Without a big improvement in his BABIP he's going to have trouble. I'm thinking 4.00 ERA is more likely, with a WAR of around 2

forget BABIP, if he doesn't improve his BABOP, he's going to struggle. can't continue to channel his inner Bert Blyleven and expect success.

What's amazing about the hr problem is he used to be a great pitcher at limiting the homers. 2008-2014 he was in the top 10 each year in hr/9 allowed. For his career he's #6 active

didn't they recently move the walls in at Safeco? That could explain some of the difference

so brought in for the '13 season... http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/sea/ball...nsions.jsp

so that's fine but doesn't explain why he got worse starting after the '14 season. You saw a bit of an uptick from 0.5 in '12 to 0.7 in '13 and 0.6 in '14.