(02-17-2017 12:53 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 12:34 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 11:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 10:55 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.

Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.

1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.

I don't think that many schools will follow LU.

Lets move through them.

1) Montana. Could try for it. But it would be terribly expensive. And they wouldn't get in the MWC. Idaho is committed to moving down. Barring a massive move out of FCS, there will be no FBS WAC or Big Sky.
2) Jacksonville State. Wants to jump. Badly. But they're poor and they're not in an economically or demographically growing area. Small enrollment. And there are THREE P5 programs and FIVE FBS programs within two hours of the school. And all of those schools have better media access than JSU. I don't see them being successful at jumping. Also, their current conference will probably kick them out.
3) Ivy league schools will not be jumping. Period
4) JMU might jump, but seeing as they turned down the Sun Belt, which will probably have better scheduling, will have more money, and will have better bowl access, I don't see them jumping now. Possible, but unlikely.
5) Montana State - See Montana
6) Liberty - They're jumping.
7) NDSU - Could jump. Probably the best team on the table.
8) SWAC teams aren't jumping
9) Delaware appears to be not interested at this time
10) MEAC teams aren't jumping.
13) Possible but its really expensive for them to do so. They would be the EIGHTH FBS program in Ohio.

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Guys, this comes down to money. Without the CFP money, and with the extra (and more expensive) coaches and scholarships involved with moving up, and without a conference or a scheduling alliance of nearby teams, moving to FBS gets really expensive really quickly. And that's before facilities come into play.

Good analysis.
What I believe is that only wealthy private schools could make the jump to FBS Indy who have facilities already that are FBS level or can get there with little effort and have had the attendance to support.
That puts the list at:

Villanova - While looking into FBS with the Big East, being Indy gives them more flexibility to meet their own needs instead of a conference.

Lehigh - has a 16k seated facility but has bowl in the endzone for additional berm seating. Could easily add with minimal $$.

Lafayette - While having 13.5k seating, they have additional room to add for expansion. Would be a mid $$ to improve, but they have the fan support to go along with it.

Both Lehigh and Lafayette could move up at the same time and have the oldest rivalry in the college football. Both have good football facilities and are able to expand or improve with minor $$

Holy Cross - Already has a nice 24k football facility.

These 4 are probably the best that could jump to Indy status. While there are others like Richmond, they don't have the facilities or support to make a big jump to FBS.

Some other thoughts. Enough independents could form a conference. 2020 is the new bowl deals, so Liberty could work out deals like Army and BYU. Also, Liberty does have enough money in the bank to hold out but the new CFP will be renegotiated so new FBS schools will be included. So schools can start transitioning in from 2019-2021 and will be part of the new deal.

Just saying I have a feeling there will be some sort of clause allowing a new conference to be be part of the G5 in the next contract. Remember, P5 wants to avoid any appearance of anti-trust. This is the reason the CFP was setup different than the FBS. All it needs to do is appear inclusive and provide paths. Why you have the all in commercials showing every conference. Also see Independents grouped with the G5 for NYD bowl game in the next deal. Hey, I will just be happy to be alive to see the next deal.

Regarding the bold comment, there is no way for a group of Indy schools to form a new conference. The FBS can't form a football only conference.
Same rules apply to forming a new conference out of a rag-tag group of schools. The 8 year continuity would still need to be met and then after that, they would need to get approval from the D1 council and give up an at-large spot in the NCAA tourney.
Since these schools would be part of an existing D1 conference, they don't need a new conference. What they will have is a group that can be able to schedule each other as a loose group association.