(10-31-2016 09:23 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  

(10-31-2016 08:47 PM)gsloth Wrote:  Following on this, Bill Barnwell gets into some of the unofficial game situation rules that have ossified over the years, but that may not really be good guidance anymore. There's a section on rules around the 2-point conversion, though he glosses over the timing question.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17899...s-nfl-2016

For a stat-heavy writer (normally), this article was lacking in pointing to good studies in many of his discussions. But...

Taking that 2-point conversion study he points to (it's NFL specific in how it evaluates game situations, but can be used to at least take a lense to college football situations), it says that if you have a 2-point conversion play you believe can succeed at least 22% of the time (with at least 21 minutes left in the game, and your team down by 2), you should attempt the 2-point play. Clearly, Bailiff doesn't subscribe to that thought process.
source: http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm

Seems like most coaches, college and pro, do not subscribe to that thought process.

It's not easy to know it off the top of your head. But it should be easy to color code, or have someone upstairs radio down what the call should be. Shoot, as a head coach, if you reach the red zone, you should already be anticipating getting a TD and know whether it's time for a kick or try.