This is not a UMass perspective but my personal opinion. UMass Football affiliation will not happen until the 2020’s and affiliation will be the result of various factors. First let’s take the most important scenario that the Big 12 expands and UMass is not invited to the AAC, leaving the MAC or Independence as the most viable options.

Let’s discuss the MAC or Independence option. Will UMass actively seek a MAC invite or stay independent. Going down or dropping football is not on the table for a top major research institution and state flagship university.

The decision not to accept the MAC all sports invite was made by past leaders as AD, Chancellor and President. So what are the conditions that would lead to UMass chose/ask for a MAC sports invite. The present UMass leadership need to be in place or at a minimum be pro FBS Football.

Our current AD is pro FBS and has not hesitated on firing non performing coaches after giving them an additional year or two. So far he has fired the men’s basketball and women’s basketball coaches along with the men’s hockey coach. He has the fortitude to go against the pro basketball camp and do what he considers is best for UMass. Meaning that staying independent has hurt recruiting and we need to be in a conference.

Then next condition that would help is the A10 does not strengthen and perhaps further weaken. I believe there is a good chance that the A10 becomes a two bid conference as the strength at the top has weaken. Looking at VCU schedules, they play at Dayton and have URI at home and are probably the two strongest A10 teams. Neither of these match-ups are on ESPN but on ESPN2. Perhaps the consolidation of the NCAA dance is influencing ESPN slot choices.

It will help that the MAC basketball strength stays steady or improves where they can have the second best team regularly earn an at-large NIT bid. It will also help if UMass football donations increase as a percentage relative to basketball.

Why would the MAC invite us is very debatable. We are talking in the future the 2020’s and the MAC is more than half way through its present media contract. UMass would need to show it's commitment to FBS as having an IPF, along with some improvements to McGuirk. There would need to be an attractive pairing team. The only way it would make financial sense and has been done with other conferences is that the new teams do not get an equal share of the pie. That UMass sports improve and makes us more attractive. Perhaps the next contract would be significantly less than 10 million and adding two attractive teams would offset it. It’s true splitting the CFP pie would still be a sore sport as well. Will add, we are playing Ohio and Akron will be on the schedule for 2019. Obviously we have to have some MAC teams strongly lobbying for our admission.