(11-07-2013 09:21 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  H1,

You're correct and I'm not ignoring the relationship the B1G with ESPN. Clearly the WWL is #1 and with the distribution the Mouse can leverage, Delaney is not so prideful to alienate that partnership.

JR,

You don't think 2.65 million is enough viewers for ESPN to leverage? FOX seems to be making inroad on the West Coast with only the 2.1 million you mentioned.

Vandiver, the PAC couldn't enhance anyone's payouts so far this year with what the PAC network is producing, which is very little. It is mostly due to viewership. I think in the end that is why Texas is reticent for a move to the West, but a big reason that the networks may relent on that move eventually. You can't do anything with the PAC. They are too remote to break up and parse out and the only conference out there that could help them in ratings is the Big 12. Which at 2.3 million viewers for such a small footprint could help the PAC achieve some semblance of parity with the Big 10 should the two be essentially merged. While the business model in the Big 12 is totally different from that of the PAC the network involvement is essentially the same. FOX and ESPN are fairly close to 50/50 involvement in both. I can see the networks leveraging such a move into partial ownership of the PAC. I strongly suspect that each detests the self ownership that the PAC has to a certain extent, and due to their low numbers may conversely be glad they don't currently have ownership.

As to the ACC they have the greatest footprint in the U.S. and can't do much with it. ESPN is trimming overhead. Eventually they will package their best product in the ACC with the SEC and Big 10. They'll do that to leverage waning control in the Big 10 and cement the best product in the nation not by adding football strength per se as much as basketball credentials for the SECN that they are heavily invested in.

As much as I would love to see a 4 x 16 model it would always have 1 conference significantly weaker than the others. I still think that within a matter of 5 - 8 years we will see the beginnings of a shift to a 3 x 20 model in which one or two of the conferences could go to 3 x 24.

I know it's huge but the upper level control over college football is in place through the networks. In that regard we are becoming more NFL like albeit very slowly and we will never, because of the diversity of schools, be exactly like the NFL which is a good thing. But with management at the top structuring college ball into a more marketable product we are nevertheless going to see bigger conferences in which our old version of conferences will become divisions. If there is a 24 team conference it will happen in the SEC or PAC, especially should the PAC make a bold move like simply merging with the Big 12 and then inviting to market additions like Nevada and New Mexico. (I think taking 7 Big 12 schools is more likely should they make this kind of move and therefore a 20 team PAC is more likely). 24 in the SEC is likely because we have too many state schools that don't fit into the Big 10 and the PAC is to remote to be an option. West Virginia, Louisville, and Miami are three such schools that may need a home in a 3 x 20 world.

But none of this is being driven by conference presidents, commissioners, or pride. It is all being driven by colleges who need new revenue streams and networks who are taking advantage of a window of opportunity to provide that revenue in exchange for restructuring the product into a more marketable and profitable product.