(08-01-2013 02:36 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(08-01-2013 01:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-01-2013 01:10 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  I guess the issue I have with dividing up the B12 is that I don't think you could get the 4 remaining conferences to determine equal value. The drop-off from TX and OK to the other eight schools is just too great. And if FOX and ESPN are willing to increase the revenues to the other four conferences to accept teams they really don't want, then why not just promise to keep the distribution levels the same for B12 teams if they expand the conference?

For instance, let's consider KSU-->SEC and ISU-->B1G. FOX and ESPN might give both conferences enough to where current distributions don't decrease plus a kicker for taking teams with marginal value. We're talking about $42-47 million for both schools in such arrangement. With those kind of numbers I just think it would be more cheaper if the networks just got together and told the B12 that the cost of inclusion into the new division would be to pick 4-6 more teams.

I thought that way for a while, but then I realized, as He1nous has been saying, that Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Oklahoma State all pay for themselves in the PAC. They don't do that as brands, they do that as 4 shots at games in the central time zone that the PAC doesn't presently have. They offer venues in a time slot the PAC hasn't been able to capitalize on. Now, sure the PAC would rather have Texahoma to do it, but without Texas or Oklahoma, 4 new states as opposed to two does offer a bit of a buffer against the loss of the national brands. If they sell 24 games in those slots during the course of the year and expand the PAC network into those states it is still a win for the PAC. Now with those four taken care of, and Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, and Kansas you have the 8 votes necessary for dissolution.

I too think that the best brands will be divided up. At first I thought that might happen between the surviving 4 conferences with each of them taking 2, one brand & one state school (except the ACC), and the PAC taking 4, 2 brands and two state schools. Now I think the division will be between the networks (Texas and West Virginia to ESPN = Oklahoma and Kansas to FOX). How it plays out there will be up to the networks.

I get the value of the slots for the PAC, but I question the vehicle to get to that point considering that the P12 is a (mostly) FOX property while the B12 is jointly owned. IMO, dissolving the B12 has to meet the following parameters:

- No network can be perceived as having an advantage over the other
- The PAC & ACC must have appear to close to gap with the SEC & B1G
- All 10 teams have to find a P4 conference home

Without meeting these three conditions, I just think the two networks would simply go with the 'no build' option and let the B12 hang around. Does the value of the CST Zone slots offset the perceived brand hit the PAC would take? A perceived hit the FOX will claim they should be compensated for via either TX and/or OK? Would ESPN go for that? (answer: no)

I think you miss-perceived what I wrote. I said Texas and West Virginia to ESPN and Kansas and Oklahoma to Fox. The value of those would be as close to a wash as you could probably get. In that scenario I would look for Texas to go to the ACC under a ND type arrangement and take either Texas Christian or Baylor, or perhaps both with them.

I would think Kansas would be on its way to the Big 10 and Oklahoma with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State to the PAC.

The SEC would likely be interested in West Virginia for the markets.

The Big 10 has been in talks with Buffalo. How serious that is remains to be seen but Buffalo and Kansas could round out their 16. If the SEC insisted on Oklahoma State as a travel partner the 10th team could be placed in the PAC in their place probably making Larry Scott happier for not having to double down on Oklahoma. Iowa State slips into the PAC.
But I think you see the thinking here. Placement of all ten is possible. If the ACC gets Texas and the PAC gets Oklahoma in the process then the strengthening your refer to takes place. Anyway it will be something like that that has to happen if we are to work our way down to four conferences and ameliorate the differences that exist now. Plus, it would be a wash for the networks.