(12-16-2015 07:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 06:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 06:02 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

Notre Dame will just rejoin the AAC or similar league, and stay indy in football. They are the white whale and appear to have a shot at getting into the CFP without a conference championship. If anything, their schedule would have greater flexibility without 4 or 5 ACC required games to play.

White whale or not, should the ACC go away I think their options for the CFP goes with them unless they go all in somewhere.

If the P5 becomes the P5, I would expect ND to try and get in via the selection committee for a few years before re-accessing their situation.

The P5 is the P5. The only question is whether it becomes the P4 or P3. Time, monetary disparity, and the pressure to compete will decide that issue.

Maybe Texas fancies itself as Snow White (surrounded by dwarfs), but OU does not. Therein lies the fuse that could blow the Big 12 apart.

Florida State and Clemson will not be content to sit idly by and let the gap grow in revenue with their in state rivals. Couple that with the shenanigans at UNC academically and you have a volatile mixture within the ACC. If Notre Dame or another big draw school like Texas refuse to join the ACC in full and therefore the national audience is not in the bag for an ACCN then therein lies the fuse that can ignite that simmering mixture within the ACC.

The Big 10, SEC, and PAC might have some minor issues but nothing that can blow them apart. In that regard all 3 are extremely stable. More importantly all 3 need only do nothing as the present momentum each has will only build pressure within the other two. Time is truly on their side.