I responded to a post in another thread with an extended analysis of Southern Miss, which effectively provides most of the info I include in my previews. So, rather than repeat myself.....

Quote:Now I'm totally perplexed. Given today's game is meaningless to USM, why in the world would they start their Sunday starter? I would think LHP Drehoff is burned as he went 6.0 innings and threw 87 pitches in yesterday's win over the Coogs. They can certainly go back to Pierce tomorrow (he only threw 4.2 IP and 83 pitches on Wednesday)-- and he is their 3-year ace and Friday starter who helped get them here, BUT, as ShiftyEagle posted, he's been dreadful his past 2 - 3 starts and may be hiding an injury. (He's throw 108 innings already this year.) Perhaps they start Jr RHP Myrick, who despite not starting any game this year, has been their bullpen workhorse (19 app, 42.0 IP, 4-0, 1 save, 2.79 ERA, .203 BAA, 21 BBs, 42 Ks). Quite honestly, Myrick has the best across-the-board stats of anyone on the staff who has thrown 20+ innings. And they do have four other quality relievers-- all with ERAs under 3.00-- who could pick up the slack if Myrick starts. The way we've pounded left-handers the past two games (as hard to believe as that is), I can't imagine USM would start a southpaw against us (unless it was Drehoff, and he should be unavailable). Clearly, the strength of the USM pitching staff this year has been it's bullpen.

Either way, for the first time this year, I'm confident our offense will come to play tomorrow and will put up runs. The key is going to be for our pitching and defense to slow down the red-hot USM offense, which has now (prior to tonight's game) post 11 double-digit hit games over their last 15 games. I'm also a bit concerned by their lefthanded laden lineup, with four of their top 5 hitters left-handed (Fowler, Roussell, Robbins, Day) and all hitting over .315. Their leading hitter, Isaac Rodriguez (.355/.446/.462, 2 HRs, 15 doubles, 30 RBIs) may be right-handed, but he's the leading hitter in CUSA during confereince-only action.

Their only real power threat is Blake Brown, but he's very much an all or nothing type power hitter and he's right-handed (.247/.329/.460, 10 HRs, 12 doubles, 32 RBIs, 50 Ks).

They don't walk much, but aside from Brown, they don't strikeout at a high frequency either (only one other batter has more than 30 Ks). This would indicate that they are very aggressive, first pitch hitters, who can be had if we lead with our breaking balls and off-speed pitches.

Defensively, they're solid, with a .969 fielding percentage. Their strength is at catcher with all-conference selection, Chase Fowler, who has thrown 58% of attempted basestealers (that's even better than Perrott's 52% caught stealing rate) and who has allowed just 4 passed balls and 28 wild pitches. I don't see us attempting to run tomorrow. Similarly, their RF (Marty Robbins) has thrown out 10 baserunners, which is a very high number of assists for a college outfielder. (Note-- Byrd has 8 and Cook 7 on the year.) USM's one defensive vulnerability appears to be at 3B, where Bradley Roney has committed 15 errors.

And there you have my preview!

Prior to tonight's game vs. ECU, USM's overall record is 30 - 25 (17-9 in CUSA, 8-11 on the road, 5-12 vs. Top 50, 11-19 vs. Top 100), and they currently have the #101 ranked RPI. (A win tonight would get them back into the Top 100, and further help our resume.) For those interested, here's USM's schedule/results and individual/team stats YTD...

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/sch...thern-Miss

http://www.southernmiss.com/sports/m-bas...mcume.html

And here's the preview I prepared prior to our March 22nd series in Hattiesburg, in which Pierce dominated in Game 1 (on an off night by Kubitza), but both Stephens and Simms delivered strong performances in securing the weekend series...
http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=625717

Aside from adding the tournament championship to our regular season championship, and extending our winning streak yet another game, tomorrow's championship game means very little to us from the big picture perspective. We've already locked up a #2 seed in the post-season and reached the 40-win milestone. Our RPI has already moved into the "safe" range at #39. A win tomorrow will not improve our post-season positioning. Conversely, it's a MUST WIN game for USM (after playing a meaningless game this afternoon against ECU), as they need to get the automatic bid of the conference championship to receive a post-season invitation. Having said all that, let's not let up at this point, as we're playing our best ball of the season. Let's win tomorrow and head into post-season play on a roll, with all the momentum and confidence. Yes, we'll be sent packing-- likely to one of the national seeds, but we should still be a confident lot given our 17-6 road record, the way we've been pitching the past 2+ weeks, and with our current win streak. I can assure you that come Monday morning, which ever regional host sees us in their bracket is going to be letting out a loud groan.

Let's take home the championship tomorrow afternoon and cap off a pretty fantastic final two weeks of the season. Go Owls!

Note-- correction from my original post: it now appears that USM did hold back their usual Sunday starter for our game tomorrow. Consequently, the likely USM starter will be...

Connor Fisk (Jr RHP): 11 starts, 4-3, 66.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, .250 BAA, 22 BBs, 50 Ks, 11 extrabase hits

Those are pretty strong across-the-board stats for a #3 Sunday starter...and he has pitched well in each of his last four starts (against Memphis, UAB, Houston and SIU Edwardsville). In his earlier start against us on March 24th, he pitched a "quality start", despite getting a no decision...
http://www.southernmiss.com/sports/m-bas...m2313.html

7.0 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs, 3 BBs, 5 Ks, 113 pitches

I would love to our pitchers dominate again and make us the scariest 2 seed in the tournament.

According to JD's article in today's Chronicle, Blake Fox is expected to get the start this afternoon...

http://www.chron.com/sports/rice/article...548849.php

Given his recent arm soreness, I wouldn't expect Blake to go more than 3 - 4 innings. However, with USM's left-handed laden lineup, it appears The OG wants to improve the chances we get off to a solid start today. Also, should we face a strong left-handed hitting team in the regionals, Fox could slip into the starter's role (just as CSC used to do back in the day).