(06-19-2012 11:09 AM)MWD1001 Wrote:  UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.

You could make this same post about Penn State, or FSU, or pretty close to any school for that matter.

There are very few Alabama's (on one end) and UAB's (on the other end) that just consistently win or lose. Most programs go in cycles, that over the course of 15-20 years look just like how you described UCF. This could be the year we lose all our OOC games against AQ opponents, drop a non-AQ OOC game, and lose 75% of our conference games. We could also win most of our OOC games and win our conference.

My guess for this year is 11-3 give or take 2 win (yes, I believe at worst this team gets 9 wins this year).