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College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
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TOGC Offline
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Post: #21
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 11:39 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 11:32 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 11:21 AM)TOGC Wrote:  This is step one towards a full championship tournament. People have said forever that we'll never have a playoff. Now, it's pretty much a done deal.

Step two will be increasing it to eight teams, then sixteen. The SEC will be on board because they think they'll get five teams in a 16 team playoff. Expansion will happen and it will be a good thing.

Eh, we'll see how much "bracket creep" occurs. The big difference between football and basketball is that football *regular season* TV money is completely dominant (and why conference realignment has been such a rampant issue) compared to the postseason and even the mighty SEC wants to keep it that way. That's where the power conferences really have the advantage as opposed to number of teams that they could send to a hypothetical playoff.

A larger playoff could certainly happen down the road (and frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing an 8-team playoff at all), but you're likely seeing a 10-year or more TV deal coming out this in order to make sure that we don't have reassessments of the system in the near future.

I agree.
The longer you make the football season with extended playoffs the more underclassman will leave early for the NFL. If I am 1-2 round NFL lock, and we just finished 12-13 game season, then I have 4 more games to play...............screw that, I develop a faux injury.

1) I doubt we see a 10 year deal. They will want to get a raise before 10 years are up.
2) FBS is the only sport in college athletics that doesn't have a playoff. Even FBS has a playoff that runs several weeks, and they have quite a few players who get drafted as well.
04-27-2012 11:46 AM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #22
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 11:46 AM)TOGC Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 11:39 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 11:32 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 11:21 AM)TOGC Wrote:  This is step one towards a full championship tournament. People have said forever that we'll never have a playoff. Now, it's pretty much a done deal.

Step two will be increasing it to eight teams, then sixteen. The SEC will be on board because they think they'll get five teams in a 16 team playoff. Expansion will happen and it will be a good thing.

Eh, we'll see how much "bracket creep" occurs. The big difference between football and basketball is that football *regular season* TV money is completely dominant (and why conference realignment has been such a rampant issue) compared to the postseason and even the mighty SEC wants to keep it that way. That's where the power conferences really have the advantage as opposed to number of teams that they could send to a hypothetical playoff.

A larger playoff could certainly happen down the road (and frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing an 8-team playoff at all), but you're likely seeing a 10-year or more TV deal coming out this in order to make sure that we don't have reassessments of the system in the near future.

I agree.
The longer you make the football season with extended playoffs the more underclassman will leave early for the NFL. If I am 1-2 round NFL lock, and we just finished 12-13 game season, then I have 4 more games to play...............screw that, I develop a faux injury.

1) I doubt we see a 10 year deal. They will want to get a raise before 10 years are up.
2) FBS is the only sport in college athletics that doesn't have a playoff. Even FBS has a playoff that runs several weeks, and they have quite a few players who get drafted as well.

If it is as "successful" as I think it will be they would be once again leaving $$$$ on the table.

Look, @ long last they have "uttered" the word "Playoff". A huge scab is now pulled and now the "Genie" is out of the bottle.

You will have "some traditionalist" but in the $$$$ this is gonna pull in and since the public wants a playoff and with this and with the $$$$ this is going to generate Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl whatever this is a free market society and that is what is going to win in the end.
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2012 11:55 AM by Maize.)
04-27-2012 11:53 AM
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TOGC Offline
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Post: #23
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
Yep, follow the money. There is a lot more money out there for a full-blown playoff than for an outdated and bloated bowl system.
04-27-2012 11:56 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #24
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 11:46 AM)TOGC Wrote:  1) I doubt we see a 10 year deal. They will want to get a raise before 10 years are up.

The new NCAA Tournament contract is 14 years long and most conference TV contracts are 10 years or more in length. Since cable money is driving this (even in the case of the NCAA Tournament - CBS would not have won the latest bid without Turner's cable dollars), they need long-term TV contracts in order provide enough time to recoup the rights fees via increased cable subscriber fees. I'd actually be very surprised if we see anything less than a 10-year deal. It may end up being closer to a 15-year deal.

Quote:2) FBS is the only sport in college athletics that doesn't have a playoff. Even FBS has a playoff that runs several weeks, and they have quite a few players who get drafted as well.

True, but that hasn't stopped the powers that be in college football from completely ignoring that fact for decades.

Like I've said, the fact that they have agreed to a 4-team playoff means that it's certainly possible that they can agree to an 8-team playoff down the road. However, the SEC/Big Ten/etc. aren't going to do that for the benefit of the little guys in order to give them auto-bids a la the NCAA Tournament. The one constant is that they want to keep 90% of the revenue just like today, so saying that "A 16-team playoff is worth a billion dollars per year!" is irrelevant compared to how that money is actually split. (And if the question is about whether the SEC and Big Ten get enough, the answer is that, no, they can never get enough.)
04-27-2012 11:56 AM
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TRest3 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 10:06 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  I think the Rose is in. They don't want to be left off of the gravy train that the BCS is almost certain to become. The bowls that need to be shaking in thier boots are the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, etc. While the 7-win bowl eligibility isn't set in stone, it's still on the table.

My guess is that the four BCS bowls survive and add the Cotton to the rotation (Big XII vs BE?) so there will be five games that would rotate the semifinals with one site hosting an additional NCG (like they do today), but also, an additional 3 bowls added to the BCS to fill out the 20-team event (Capital One, Outback, and Chik-fil-A perhaps) with teams somewhat selected by contracts, but maybe more by a BCS committee. Note that McMurphy was talking the next rotation would be either a 5-year or 10-year contract, not the 4-years the BCS has previously been on.

What 20 team event are you referencing? Will there be 10 "BCS" bowls, including the playoff games?
04-27-2012 12:17 PM
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CommuterBob Offline
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Post: #26
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 12:17 PM)TRest3 Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 10:06 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  I think the Rose is in. They don't want to be left off of the gravy train that the BCS is almost certain to become. The bowls that need to be shaking in thier boots are the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, etc. While the 7-win bowl eligibility isn't set in stone, it's still on the table.

My guess is that the four BCS bowls survive and add the Cotton to the rotation (Big XII vs BE?) so there will be five games that would rotate the semifinals with one site hosting an additional NCG (like they do today), but also, an additional 3 bowls added to the BCS to fill out the 20-team event (Capital One, Outback, and Chik-fil-A perhaps) with teams somewhat selected by contracts, but maybe more by a BCS committee. Note that McMurphy was talking the next rotation would be either a 5-year or 10-year contract, not the 4-years the BCS has previously been on.

What 20 team event are you referencing? Will there be 10 "BCS" bowls, including the playoff games?

The one proposed by the BCS at their meetings this week. They have two scenarios they are contemplating in addition to the 4-team playoff: a 10-12 team event where they will have spots for 6-8 additional teams to play in upper-tier bowls, or (what I believe could happen) a 20-team event where they will have spots for 16 additional teams in upper-tier bowls.
04-27-2012 01:05 PM
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TOGC Offline
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Post: #27
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 11:56 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(04-27-2012 11:46 AM)TOGC Wrote:  1) I doubt we see a 10 year deal. They will want to get a raise before 10 years are up.

The new NCAA Tournament contract is 14 years long and most conference TV contracts are 10 years or more in length. Since cable money is driving this (even in the case of the NCAA Tournament - CBS would not have won the latest bid without Turner's cable dollars), they need long-term TV contracts in order provide enough time to recoup the rights fees via increased cable subscriber fees. I'd actually be very surprised if we see anything less than a 10-year deal. It may end up being closer to a 15-year deal.

Quote:2) FBS is the only sport in college athletics that doesn't have a playoff. Even FBS has a playoff that runs several weeks, and they have quite a few players who get drafted as well.

True, but that hasn't stopped the powers that be in college football from completely ignoring that fact for decades.

Like I've said, the fact that they have agreed to a 4-team playoff means that it's certainly possible that they can agree to an 8-team playoff down the road. However, the SEC/Big Ten/etc. aren't going to do that for the benefit of the little guys in order to give them auto-bids a la the NCAA Tournament. The one constant is that they want to keep 90% of the revenue just like today, so saying that "A 16-team playoff is worth a billion dollars per year!" is irrelevant compared to how that money is actually split. (And if the question is about whether the SEC and Big Ten get enough, the answer is that, no, they can never get enough.)

The big conferences will drive expansion of the playoffs when they realize they can get four or five teams in there and make more money as a result.
04-27-2012 02:21 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #28
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 02:21 PM)TOGC Wrote:  The big conferences will drive expansion of the playoffs when they realize they can get four or five teams in there and make more money as a result.

The big conferences get most of the NCAA Tournament bids, too, but "only" 60% of revenue, whereas they current get 90% of the postseason college football revenue. So, it's not about the total money of a playoff. What the power conferences care about is (1) how such money is split and (2) how much financial impact there is on the regular season TV contracts.

You know why basketball became completely irrelevant in conference realignment? It's because the NCAA Tournament sucked up all of the basketball TV revenue where the regular season is worth only pennies on the dollar now. That's what the power conferences absolutely and positively completed MORTIFIED of happening to football. This is something that I see way too many people miss when they're just focused on how much the playoff is worth. Unlike basketball, the value of the football regular season means a ton more to the conferences than the postseason, so you have to net out how any increase in playoff money might result in a decrease in regular season money.

Now, I personally believe that 8 teams can be accommodated without devaluing the regular season. 16 teams, though, will definitely impact it (and that's really the tipping point for the powers that be).
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2012 04:31 PM by Frank the Tank.)
04-27-2012 04:30 PM
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TOGC Offline
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Post: #29
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
90% doesn't mean anything. Total dolllars mean something. If the Big conferences can increase their VOLUME of income, that's all that matters.
04-27-2012 04:58 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #30
RE: College Football Post Season Changes just killed the Bowls
(04-27-2012 04:58 PM)TOGC Wrote:  90% doesn't mean anything. Total dolllars mean something. If the Big conferences can increase their VOLUME of income, that's all that matters.

Yes and no. If the SEC receives $30 million under today's system and goes up to $35 million in the new system, yes, they get more money. However, let's say that the Sun Belt gets $1 million under today's system and then they shoot up to $35 million in the new system, too (or let's even just say the Sun Belt gets $20 million). Why would the SEC be cool with that? Believe me - they wouldn't be. The SEC is taking a risk in devaluing their regular season position while the Sun Belt is realizing all of the upside of the expanded playoff.

The SEC and Big Ten firmly believe that they are the ones driving revenue in college sports, so they LOATHE the NCAA Tournament revenue distribution model. If they could change basketball to have a BCS-type model, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
04-27-2012 05:28 PM
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