(02-25-2012 08:23 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  

Quote:A traditional line for predicting bowl eligibility is a Sagarin rating of about 80, of which only 6 alliance programs qualified last year. That is a major issue if only 5 of 16 alliance schools (31.3%) are strong enough to finish with a bowl eligible record. Five of the schools (Colorado State, UAB, UNLV, Tulane, and New Mexico) were rated below 140 in the Sagarins. The MAC by contrast only had one (198. Akron) below the #140 threshold.

http://www.ubbullrun.com/2012/2/17/28041...k-or-treat

Let's take the Sagarin numbers as gospel, and pretend the Alliance starts next year with the 16 existing MWC-CUSA members, 7 division games and one crossover. No upsets, no improvement no slippage. What are the 2012 records?

Nevada, Air Force, USM and Tulsa all have at least 6 conference wins, so they're bowl-eligible without looking at their non-conference schedules or their MWC-CUSA games.

C-USA side
3. Marshall(79) 5 division wins, OOC @WVU, Western Carolina (217), Ohio(68), Purdue(65). 6-7 wins.

4. Rice (89) with 4 division wins, OOC UCLA, KAnsas, @LaTech(48), UTSA(200) 5 wins, 6 if they win their MWC vs C-USA game

5 UTEP(92) with 3 division wins, OOC Oklahoma, Ole Miss, New Mexico State(133), Wisconsin. Not happening.

MWC
3 Wyoming(85), with 5 division wins and OOC @Texas, Toledo (40), Cal Poly(109) and Idaho(141). 7-8 wins.

4 Hawaii (97) with 4 division wins, OOC @USC, @BYU, Lamar(220), South Alabama(181). 6-7 wins.

5 Fresno State(105) with 3 division wins, OOC Weber State(136), @ Oregon, Colorado(107), @Tulsa. Add, say, North Texas(121) and you've got 6 wins.

So, by the Sagarin ratings and the 2012 schedules, you'd have 7 teams with 6 or more wins, plus Rice and Fresno State as possibles. Of course, if the new rule is 7 wins, then you're looking at 5 teams plus 2 possibles (Hawaii and Marshall).