(01-15-2012 06:05 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  11-7 and I don't care if the RPI is over 100. Lead pipe lock. Only question would be the seed.

This is dead on.

(01-16-2012 08:07 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  We still have a TON of games to play in the Big East (against lot of ranked teams).....everyone relax. If we win those games we are in. We win 11 or 12 Big East games and nobody will care we played Southwest Central Tech in November.

just reporting the rankings, not worried one bit

Here's where the RPI is flawed.

Team A beats the following teams OOC
Oral Roberts
Morehead St
Akron
Tenn Tech
Mizz St

Team B beats the following teams OOC
Alabama St
Jacksonville St
Northwestern St
Radford
Ark Pine Bluff
Chicago St

In either scenario those are all wins in any normal year for both teams. Some of those games might be only 15 point wins while others are 35 point wins but the bottom line is those are basically guaranteed wins.

Team A - RPI 101
Team B - RPI 278

That's HUGE on your RPI number but meaningless when it comes to reviewing the level of competition you beat this year.

The issue comes down to either fixing the RPI or fixing your schedule and the only thing in UC's control is fixing the schedule. Mick needs to stop scheduling less Chicago St's and start scheduling more Oral Roberts. This problem falls in UC's hands cause there's no way to change the media and how they'll continue to pimp the RPI number.

(01-16-2012 09:02 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  Here's where the RPI is flawed.

Team A beats the following teams OOC
Oral Roberts
Morehead St
Akron
Tenn Tech
Mizz St

Team B beats the following teams OOC
Alabama St
Jacksonville St
Northwestern St
Radford
Ark Pine Bluff
Chicago St

In either scenario those are all wins in any normal year for both teams. Some of those games might be only 15 point wins while others are 35 point wins but the bottom line is those are basically guaranteed wins.

Team A - RPI 101
Team B - RPI 278

That's HUGE on your RPI number but meaningless when it comes to reviewing the level of competition you beat this year.

The issue comes down to either fixing the RPI or fixing your schedule and the only thing in UC's control is fixing the schedule. Mick needs to stop scheduling less Chicago St's and start scheduling more Oral Roberts. This problem falls in UC's hands cause there's no way to change the media and how they'll continue to pimp the RPI number.

The media cannot rip the Bearcats more than our "fans" already do.

Whether you think the RPI is flawed or not (it is) and whether you like the way the committee focuses a ton on non-conference SOS for bubble teams or not (they do), is not important. If UC gets to 11-7 will I think they are good enough to make the tournament, yes, yes I will. That said, will I have any problem with the committee leaving them out...I most likely won't (I say most likely because you cannot look at these things in a vacuum, depends on the other teams around them). Last year I thought Alabama clearly had the better tourney resume than Georgia...same number of quality wins, but Bama beat Georgia twice, and won the SEC West. They did not make it because of a horrible non-conference SOS. The committee sent the same message to Colorado and VT (to a lesser extent, their non-conference SOS was bad, but not horrific like the two teams I mentioned and ours is this year). Instead the committee rewarded teams like VCU and UAB. Over the years the committee has been pretty consistent in this form. When you are a bubble team non-conference SOS as judged by RPI plays a very big role. YOu have to do something significant enough to overcome it.

Last year we went unbeaten out of conference and then 11-7 in an historically deep Big East. That was more than enough to overcome it. This year I think we'll get to 12-6 or 13-5 in the Big East and it won't be an issue either, but at 11-7 I still feel we'll be in the danger zone.

I'm not stressing over it now, because play on the court hopefully will make it a factor only in terms of NCAA seeding, BUT 110 is a LONG way to climb and 11-7 would assume we essentially play .500 ball from here on out, so I'm not sure how high that would get us. I'd guess in the 80s.

(01-16-2012 10:45 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Whether you think the RPI is flawed or not (it is) and whether you like the way the committee focuses a ton on non-conference SOS for bubble teams or not (they do), is not important. If UC gets to 11-7 will I think they are good enough to make the tournament, yes, yes I will. That said, will I have any problem with the committee leaving them out...I most likely won't (I say most likely because you cannot look at these things in a vacuum, depends on the other teams around them). Last year I thought Alabama clearly had the better tourney resume than Georgia...same number of quality wins, but Bama beat Georgia twice, and won the SEC West. They did not make it because of a horrible non-conference SOS. The committee sent the same message to Colorado and VT (to a lesser extent, their non-conference SOS was bad, but not horrific like the two teams I mentioned and ours is this year). Instead the committee rewarded teams like VCU and UAB. Over the years the committee has been pretty consistent in this form. When you are a bubble team non-conference SOS as judged by RPI plays a very big role. YOu have to do something significant enough to overcome it.

Last year we went unbeaten out of conference and then 11-7 in an historically deep Big East. That was more than enough to overcome it. This year I think we'll get to 12-6 or 13-5 in the Big East and it won't be an issue either, but at 11-7 I still feel we'll be in the danger zone.

I'm not stressing over it now, because play on the court hopefully will make it a factor only in terms of NCAA seeding, BUT 110 is a LONG way to climb and 11-7 would assume we essentially play .500 ball from here on out, so I'm not sure how high that would get us. I'd guess in the 80s.

like you said....this isn't done in a vacuum. For example, if we go 11-7 but one of those wins is #1 Cuse on Monday night, we are in. So 11 wins in BE "could" get us a lock depending on who the 11 wins are against.

(01-16-2012 10:45 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Whether you think the RPI is flawed or not (it is) and whether you like the way the committee focuses a ton on non-conference SOS for bubble teams or not (they do), is not important. If UC gets to 11-7 will I think they are good enough to make the tournament, yes, yes I will. That said, will I have any problem with the committee leaving them out...I most likely won't (I say most likely because you cannot look at these things in a vacuum, depends on the other teams around them). Last year I thought Alabama clearly had the better tourney resume than Georgia...same number of quality wins, but Bama beat Georgia twice, and won the SEC West. They did not make it because of a horrible non-conference SOS. The committee sent the same message to Colorado and VT (to a lesser extent, their non-conference SOS was bad, but not horrific like the two teams I mentioned and ours is this year). Instead the committee rewarded teams like VCU and UAB. Over the years the committee has been pretty consistent in this form. When you are a bubble team non-conference SOS as judged by RPI plays a very big role. YOu have to do something significant enough to overcome it.

Last year we went unbeaten out of conference and then 11-7 in an historically deep Big East. That was more than enough to overcome it. This year I think we'll get to 12-6 or 13-5 in the Big East and it won't be an issue either, but at 11-7 I still feel we'll be in the danger zone.

I'm not stressing over it now, because play on the court hopefully will make it a factor only in terms of NCAA seeding, BUT 110 is a LONG way to climb and 11-7 would assume we essentially play .500 ball from here on out, so I'm not sure how high that would get us. I'd guess in the 80s.

Well said, mark.

UC's projected non-conference SOS is 319. The committee is going to have a huge issue with that.

If they go 11-7 in the East, their final record would be 21-10. That would result in an expected RPI of 74.8.

The best case scenario (realistic) is they finish a few games better than that and have an RPI in the 45-55 range. Worst case is they finish with 9-10 BE wins and have an RPI in the 85-100 range.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Cincinnati.html

RPIforecast, undervalues UC's SOS because it projects teams to finish worse than I think they will finish.
Xavier 19-11, NW. State 12-15, Wright 12-17, and those are just a few think they will be off with; however, I am concerned that Radford, Pinebluff, and Chicago State will not win the amount of games they are projected to.

(01-16-2012 11:22 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  RPIforecast, undervalues UC's SOS because it projects teams to finish worse than I think they will finish.
Xavier 19-11, NW. State 12-15, Wright 12-17, and those are just a few think they will be off with; however, I am concerned that Radford, Pinebluff, and Chicago State will not win the amount of games they are projected to.

Given how Xavier's played since the Cincinnati game, I don't think it would be that surprising if they finished their season 7-5. I don't know (or care) much about NW State or Wright State, but it's not like there's going to be a huge shift in the OOC SOS. It'll still suck, perhaps just a bit less.

Someone help me out. Won't our RPI and SOS jump big time just by playing our next 3 games even if we lose all of them?