(03-14-2011 01:52 AM)I45owl Wrote:  And yet, I predict that less radiation is released in this accident than is released in the normal operation of coal power plants on a daily basis.

The safety of these nuclear plants is "defense in depth". The explosions are due to hydrogen gas and the destruction is outside the containment vessels of the reactors.

This is among the worst confluence of conceivable disasters that you would expect a nuclear plant to go through. I think this quake has been described as the worst - or perhaps one of the two worst - in modern history.

The environmental damage from cars being swept into the ocean is probably far worse than the nuclear plant.

The industrial plants that are burning in Japan will release pollution that may well reach across the Pacific.

The immediate neighborhood around these plants *may* be at risk of some contamination, but that remains pretty unlikely.

This is about the worst one-two punch that you can throw at any industrial plant of any kind and it is likely that the outcome will be nothing of real consequence except fear, uncertainty, and doubt. At least two of the reactors will probably never be operational again, with no real impact on the environment, even if there is a core meltdown.

Have fossil fuel plants fared as well?

Let's talk more about magnitude and scale in a week or so... both the magnitude and scale of what was thrown at these plants and the negative environmental and health outcomes of the nuclear industry through the horrible events on the other side of the world. We will probably have a very good idea of how bad the final outcome will be by that time.

Should there be mushroom clouds that envelope the plants and spread the radioactive waste from the plants across Japan and northern asia, I will certainly change my tune. If whatever radioactive waste that is released into the environment turns out to be insubstantial, will you continue your hysterical fear?

Also, let's introduce the basics of risk analysis into the discussion. Your outcome is governed by Probability multiplied by the Negative Consequences. To date we have (very unlikely times nil). How does that rate?

Incidentally, Chernobyl was the most serious accident since TMI. The Soviets could pretty well **** anything up in grand scale.

Seriously? Do you REALLY believe all that crap you just wrote?

I do agree with your second to last sentence though. He did forget about Chernobyl.