(02-07-2018 02:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Creighton may be going to the dance, but they're going to get absolutely dinged for a bad OOC schedule. And that could easily cost Creighton getting a 2nd or 3rd game in the tourney- instead of a 4 or 5 seed, they could easily be looking due to the bad OOC schedule a 7 or 8 seed- and a de facto road game in rd 2 of the tourney.

The reason why Providence has a chance of going to the tourney this year is that they did have a pretty decent OOC schedule- projected at 68. If they had Creighton's OOC schedule, they'd be in pretty bleak shape right now.

Is it possible that if Creighton had a tougher non-conference, the record would have them barely in or simply not in the conversation, taking more losses (because it's not like they're that good)? The 7-10 seeds may be death sentences for at-larges and over-achieving single-bid conference AQ's, but the idea is that while they aren't meant to get past the first weekend, no other seed pairings are such pick'ems.

We're not supposed to envy the last-in-type at-large's at 11 or 12 lines, though they tend to reside in pairings where surviving the first weekend could be better than the 7-10s' chances. Anyone in that 7-11/12 swath is blemished and imperfect, but, it seems like being the non-conference soft but conference-tested team is better than the one beating and beaten in both.