(11-13-2017 01:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:42 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Big 12 more likely than not will have 2 more teams teams eligible.

100% UT or Tech. Then would need a losing sweep in the other 3 games (two KSU and other game of loser of Tech and UT) to prevent a second team. Using FPI, KSU is 16% to win at OSU, 49.3% to win at home against ISU. Just for KSU, it is 58% chance of bowling. When you add in the chance the loser of UT and Tech gets a win is it a 71% chance the Big 12 will have 2 more teams eligible.

Just looking-
Texas is a 46.5% chance @ West Virginia(frankly feels a bit high)
TT is a 27.0% chance vs TCU(also feels a bit high)
Texas is a 69% favorite vs Texas Tech

Odds really good that Texas beats Tech. And Tech has much less of a shot vs TCU.

Then you add in the KSU chances for a win which around 57%. For only 1 B12 team it would be .43 (chance KSU goes winless) times combined chance for a TT loss/loss (.69 x .73) plus a Texas loss/loss (.31 x .535). That equals only a 29% chance KSU losses twice and either Tech or Texas loses twice, according to FPI.