(03-18-2017 01:48 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(03-18-2017 10:53 AM)former guest Wrote:  

(03-18-2017 08:24 AM)jgardne Wrote:  The way tubby has coasted into the NCAA tournament at Minnesota and then at Texas tech won't work here. He beats some crap teams out of conference to make record look good. He loses a lot of conference games but due to being in a strong conference his rpi and strength of schedule get dragged up by conference affiliation. He then gets several quality wins because he gets 8-9 chances for a quality win at home and takes maybe 3-4. Gets 8-9 chances for "quality win" on the road and takes 1-2 of them. That's enough to skate into the tournament most years. Except it won't work here because you have to win 12 games in conference and take the 3-4 chances you get. Tubby got to take free shots at Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas state, Oklahoma state etc etc. if he lost it never counted against him for NCAA tournament selection. If he won it was a huge boost.

That formula doesn't work in the AAC. He doesn't win consistently enough to be successful here. 23-10 is going to get you CBI here. You have to go 26-7 or better probably

Good info there. I hadn't thought about it in that light. People that keep saying "Memphis is on the level of other big names" aren't looking at it from this angle. We are at a large disadvantage because of our conference affiliation.

You have fewer chances to get quality wins in conference. This year we had only 2 NCAA teams. Usually UConn is better. In the end, you should be able to have a better record than 23-10 when playing in the AAC if you are a NCAA team. We have done an awful job scheduling out of conference for years. It helped a Pastner leave with a pretty nice winning percentage.

I'm not sure playing in the AAC is a big disadvantage. Just win more games. You aren't playing Kansas, West Virginia, OSU, K State(etc) in conference. 23-10 in the P5 is gonna get you in the tourney practically every year. It's easier to go 26-7 in the AAC and that will get you in the tourney.

We need to schedule better OOC for more opportunities for quality wins and play a little more for RPI. Play more Monmouths (and hopefully win) and less Houston Baptists. Keep a few perennial top 25 teams in there too.

The NCAA does a decent job (not great) of picking the teams. We just need to show we are one of them. Unfortunately, that may not happen soon...

Based on how much better the basketball is on now, we have a total rebuild.
I just don't think Tubby and his crew are going to be able to pull this off.
If he can recruit some local players and coach them up, then things may start looking up.
At this point, he cannot even get a juco or grad transfer to commit, sad.