They need to deal with Virginia and perhaps the Gators first. Let's not get too crazy looking ahead. UNCW is fine at a 12 seed which is one of the best spots to be - it gives you a couple fringe top 25 teams in the first weekend.

Who to really feel bad for (aside from UT Arlington and Illinois St)?
St Mary's and VCU matched in a 7 - 10 game. Dayton and Wichita St matched in another 7 -10 game. Typical committee bias, pitting the mids against each other early to make sure they know each other out. They could have given those 10s games against South Carolina and Michigan in Indy and Greenville. Geographically, it still works.