Here we go again. We are now 4 weeks away from playoff time – the only way to settle a championship. Unlike last year, where there were a lot of questions about how the playoff field was going to be formed (being the first 11-game season with 24 playoff teams), the expectations should be clearer. Seven wins is a good threshold if you have a decent schedule, but you can even get an At Large bid with 6 wins if you have a very strong schedule (like Western Illinois did last year).

For those new to these articles, I will look to see who have been mathematically eliminated. This year, just like last year, I will include the MEAC because, theoretically, a 2nd place MEAC team could get an At-Large, but I will not go too in-depth unless it becomes necessary.

From a JMU Perspective...

Once again, JMU has positioned itself where they probably don't have to worry about whether they will make the playoffs – they will. Now they just need to position themselves for the best possible Seed. The Dukes have 4 games left – 2 against strong teams and 2 against weak teams. If JMU only beats the weak teams (URI and Elon), they might be able to get an 8 Seed, but they really should be ready to play at home on Thanksgiving weekend. If JMU can win 3 of their last 4, they should finish with a middle Seed and a first-round Bye. If they win all 4, they could be looking at a #1 or #2 (which are really the same thing here). The worst part is the 2 tough games are on the road, but the wins are definitely possible.


By the Numbers (106 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/23 – 84

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/23 – 72

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/23 – 12


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (9 Teams Alive)
Richmond – 7 wins
JMU – 6 wins
Villanova – 6 wins
Stony Brook (3)
UNH (2)
Maine (2)
Albany (2)
W&M (1)
Delaware (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (10 Teams Alive)
EWU – 6 wins
North Dakota – 6 wins
Cal Poly (3)
Weber State (3)
Montana (3)
Northern Colorado (1)
Southern Utah (1)
Northern Arizona (0)
Portland State
Idaho State

Big South (6 Teams Alive)
Liberty (2)
Charleston Southern (1)
Monmouth (1) – cannot win AQ
Kennesaw State (0)
Presbyterian
Gardner-Webb

MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T (3)
SC State (2)
NC Central (2)
Hampton (1)

MVC (10 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 6 wins
SDSU (3)
W. Illinois (3)
Youngstown State (3)
South Dakota (2)
Indiana State (1)
No. Iowa (1)
Illinois State (0)
So. Illinois (0)
Missouri State (0)

NEC (7 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart – 6 wins
Duquesne (2)
StFU (1)
Bryant (0)
Wagner (0)
Robert Morris
Cent. Conn. State

OVC (8 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State (3)
Tenn. State (3)
E. Illinois (2)
Tenn.-Martin (1)
SE Missouri State (0)
Tenn. Tech (0)
Murray State (0)
EKU

Patriot League (7 Teams Alive)
Lehigh – 6 wins
Fordham (2)
Georgetown (2)
Bucknell (1)
Colgate (0)
Holy Cross (0)
Lafayette

Pioneer League (7 Teams Alive)
Dayton (2)
San Diego (2)
Marist (2)
Stetson (1)
Drake (0)
Campbell
Valparaiso

SoCon (8 Teams Alive)
Chatty – 6 wins
Citadel – 6 wins
Samford (3)
Mercer (2)
Wofford (1)
VMI (1)
Furman
ETSU

Southland (8 Teams Alive)
Sam Houston State – 6 wins
Central Ark. – 6 wins
SE Louisiana (2)
Lamar (1)
Nichols State (1)
Houston Baptist (0)
McNeese State (0)
Stephen F. Austin (0)

Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Delaware
Northern Arizona
Kennesaw State
Illinois State
So. Illinois
Missouri State
Bryant
Wagner
SE Missouri State
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Colgate
Holy Cross
Drake
Houston Baptist
McNeese State
Stephen F. Austin


Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Howard (too dumb for postseason)
Morgan State (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
Coastal Carolina (transitioning to I-A)
Towson
Elon
URI
UC Davis
Sac State
Montana State
Norfolk State
Bethune-Cookman
Delaware State
Austin Peay
Butler
Morehead State
Davidson
W. Carolina
NW State

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Sam Houston State
Citadel

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Delaware State
Austin Peay
Mississippi Valley State


Conference Analysis

CAA – This year, the CAA is a conference of the haves and the have-nots. Of the 12 teams in the conference, six of them have 3 or 4 conference wins while the other six teams have 0 or 1 – there is no in-between. Typically, this means the top teams still need to face each other, and that is the case this year. The top teams each have at least one game left against another top team, and Maine still has 3 more left. In a conference where it is not unheard of to get 5 teams in the playoffs, the pressure will be on to avoid being the last team out.

Big Sky – There are three teams still undefeated in the conference, so most of the focus is going to be on them. North Dakota sits at 5-0 (in conference) while EWU and Weber State are 4-0. EWU does not play North Dakota or Weber, so it is possible for the Big Sky to have 2 undefeated teams when all is said and done. The big game next weekend will be between North Dakota and Weber. Weber's wins have been very close – even to bad opponents – so I would think North Dakota will be favored to win at home. The thing that surprised me the most when I looked at the Big Sky was how bad Montana State has become. I'm used to them competing for the conference title, but that definitely won't happen this year.

Big South – With only six teams left in the Big South (Coastal Carolina is now an Independent as they transition), there is little room for error when going for the AQ. Three conference losses will automatically eliminate a team, which is why Monmouth is already out. Looking at the weak schedules of most of the teams in the Big South, Charleston Southern looks to be the only one that should be considered for an At-Large bid if they don't get the AQ. However, that should only happen if the only remaining game they lose is the one against Liberty.

MEAC – The MEAC has no AQ, and with the conference winner playing the SWAC winner in their own “bowl” game, the only way a team can make the playoffs is to have a great resume but finish in 2nd place. To make things easier for me, the 4 middle teams in the conference are all ineligible for any postseason play due to low academics, so there really are only 4 teams to pay attention to. Looking at the schedules of those teams, the only one that could possibly be in the playoff picture is NC A&T due to their win over I-A Kent State. For everyone else, their wins are against HBCUs or D2 teams – which is not impressive enough.

MVC – Once again, it looks like the MVC is the strongest conference in I-AA. Not only are all of the teams technically still alive for their AQ, but they could all still reach 6 wins. (And their schedules are not as loaded with cupcakes as other teams tend to do.) With all of the wins these teams have racked up (including 4 against I-A teams), I would be very surprised to see the MVC to get less than 5 teams in the playoffs this year.

NEC – It's really too early to tell what will happen with this conference since they basically just started conference play. No one looks to be a candidate for an At Large, so winning the AQ will be everything.

OVC – The OVC continues to annoy me by not requiring all of their teams to play the full 8-game conference schedule. This year, Tennessee State and Jacksonville State will only play 7 OVC games – which could be a huge factor in who gets the AQ since both of those teams are near the top. (Tennessee State has always been the common factor in this anomaly, so there must be a clause that allows them to play 3 HBCU games and a I-A game, but it really can mess things up. Anyway, there are a lot of teams in contention for the AQ, but since a number of teams actually started their conference schedule earlier than usual, we will have a clearer picture next week.

Patriot – Right now there are only 2 teams with overall winning records and most of those wins were against the Ivy League. The conference schedule is just beginning, but in terms of At-Large possibilities, the only team that I could see being eligible would be Lehigh – and only if they tie for the conference lead with Fordham at 5-1. (Even then, they would be a clear bubble team.)

Pioneer – A one-bid league, the conference AQ could be decided next week when the top 2 teams (San Diego and Marist) face each other. None of the teams have a good OOC win, since they play a lot of lower division teams. The most interesting thing about this conference is that San Diego will actually play a Mexican college team this year. I had no idea there were college football teams in Mexico. (And, unlike the Pioneer teams, they even offer scholarships!)

SoCon – The top 3 teams (Chatty, Citadel, and Samford) have a decent number of wins, but keep in mind they still have their usual late-season SEC games still. All three of them are likely to pick up at least one more loss, if not two. The Citadel has already beaten Chatty, so they will be looking to bolster their AQ chances on 11/5 when they face Samford – that could decide it all. There will likely be at least 2 teams in the playoffs coming from the SoCon, so even being eliminated from the AQ doesn't make a team any less dangerous.

Southland – Usually, Sam Houston starts slow and builds to the end of the season. Not this year. They have yet to score fewer than 38 points in a game and remain undefeated overall. Are they truly the best in the division? We will see, but know that none of their D1 opponents so far have a winning record. And while their offense has been doing great, their defense has only given up less than 21 points once. Their last game of the year against Central Arkansas looks to be their only tough game left – that will probably decide the AQ, but I do expect Sam Houston to be in the playoffs regardless.