(06-21-2016 11:31 AM)GTTiger Wrote:  

(06-21-2016 08:07 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 08:50 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

Even more specifically, it makes clear what the ACC is missing...the second tier. We've got the top tier now, FSU and Clemson have been able to compete with anyone the last 3-4 years.

But the ACC has not elevated anyone to that second tier of "very good" yet. Louisville is the top candidate for that second tier, Duke and UNC are flirting with it, and certainly Miami and Virginia Tech at the very least definitely have the potential to be there.

Establishing 3-4 teams in that second quintile is the next step forward.

Exactly there is no 2nd tier program. The last 3 years Duke, Georgia Tech, and UNC were 2nd tier on the particular year. GT arguably had a 1st tier season in 2014, but no one has been able to maintain.

I agree Louisville is the closest. Duke honestly may be at their realistic peak. We don't know with UNC. GT doesn't recruit well enough to annually win 9 or 10 games.

As you said Virginia Tech and Miami are the next most capable of being in that 9-10 win ranked 15-25 region in most years.

If just Louisvlle and one other team can consistently reach the top 25, this could be a really good football league. It's close very close...

I am closest to agreeing with this POV. We need a total of [b]4 ACC Teams consistently[/b] in the top two W/L performance quintiles. Five teams would be great!