What about this?

Let's suppose that the GORs are either toothless or that nothing happens until they expire in about 10 years. Let's suppose that the ACC survives a raid of its football powers. There are a lot of schools in that conference that really don't want to be anywhere else. They could decide to stay together and just take less money for their trouble. Notre Dame sort of does that with their football program as they could make more money by joining a conference but stay competitive with their NBC contract.

The SEC takes Florida State, Clemson, NC State, and Virginia Tech...

The Big 12 also falters around the same time and lose their most valuable products. Let's say Oklahoma and Kansas go to the Big Ten. The B1G wants some of the ACC schools, but most of them balk at leaving their region.

Texas and company convince the PAC to sell their network to ESPN in exchange for UT and a couple more schools guaranteeing to come aboard.

The PAC takes Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston. The LHN is folded into the PAC Networks that are now owned by ESPN. The PAC stops at 16.

The SEC, looking to capitalize on the Big 12's misfortunes, inquire about 2 more schools to move to 20. Ultimately, ESPN is interested in saving a couple of additional products in Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The SEC finishes at 20. WVU is used to clasp down on its region, while also bringing a slice of PA with them, that was tapped by the addition of VT. The 2 are old rivals are perhaps they can play an annual game in DC or something like that to market the league to fans in the area. OSU brings additional interest from the Midwest and another rival for the Western schools. They are a growing product as their revenue is already above the SEC average.

Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Florida State
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia Tech

ESPN, now satisfied to own TX essentially, is ok with leaving Baylor in the cold. Kansas State and Iowa State also don't make the cut. They join a revamped AAC.

The ACC survives, however. It's a reduced ACC, but the overhead is much less and the content remains with ESPN.

Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami

ESPN encourages the additions of UConn and Cincinnati to bring the league back to 12 and form an amalgamation of the old Big East and the old core of the ACC. The resulting product is possibly the best basketball conference which is precisely what most of those schools want. Notre Dame remains an affiliate member.

SEC = 20
B1G = 16
PAC = 16
ACC = 12+1

We still have a power 4 although obviously not all are equal with regard to revenue.

Thoughts?