(06-05-2015 02:19 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(06-05-2015 02:24 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Remember this. Eastern Syria is a Sunni majority in a country governed by a Shia elite group that live along the coast and coastal mountains. Western Iraq is a Sunni minority in a country governed by a Shia majority. The area encompassed by ISIS today probably should be an independent nation with a Sunni government. The problem is that ISIS is the only Sunni power to come forward so far. The US has a history of all to often backing the wrong side. This is one case where we are trying to defeat the one power that arguably represents the wishes of the people living within its footprint.

Of course the problem with an independent Sunni nation in the area is that it would be incredibly poor--no oil, no water, no coast.

Sad to say, the further things go, the more it looks as if Saddam--a Sunni who could wield power over a Shia majority--was probably the best solution for Iraq.

It took about two years for the Sunni Tribes to realize the Iron Rule of AQ-I wasn't the answer.

The problem, as Owl stated, is most definitely the fact that the Sunnis in the region really haven't had anyone be able to step up and fill the power vacuum in a way that isn't a terrorist group or extremist cell of religious fanatics. I think part of that is a result of the oppression the Sunnis in Iraq (and Syria) suffered under their respective regimes. The military was mostly Shi'ite or Shi'ite-supporting Sunnis in Iraq, and the infrastructure that really would allow Sunni groups to rise up and take control wasn't there. Instead a malevolent group, henceforth known as ISIS, was able to use their power that they had to overwhelm any serious opposition (of which there was little) and assert themselves as the really dominant force in the region. Iraq is a fractured state, but we face a difficult conundrum - if Saddam would have not been taken from power, how many thousands would have died under his rule? Would it compare to today's ISIS? Unfortunately, such comparisons don't really have much bearing on what we have to do now other than understanding how we can deal with some of the aspects.