(04-07-2015 02:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(04-06-2015 06:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-06-2015 06:04 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Few extra thoughts:

1. A big point I think people miss is that this is Texas's ideal situtation. It's not perfect, but they don't want independence. They'd much rather be a regional conference, where they can have a network, and where there name remains the biggest one there.

2. I think the ACC does have right of first refusal (or whatever term is used) with Notre Dame. My guess is that's tied to the grant of rights meaning Notre Dame football can't practically join another conference until the last few years of it (not that they are likely to change the status quo regardless).

3. Not sure I get the attraction of Big Ten expansion with Missouri and Kansas. If we do expand, they are my preferences, but the added markets aren't huge considering you have to add two schools, the names are strong, but not kings in football, and scheduling issues become a lot worse with the extra schools. I don't think the presidents will strongly consider that opition unless everyone is going to 16 and unless Texas is off the table. Pod scheduling would admittidly alleviate some of this, but I will believe they'll consider that when I hear one word of it mentioned.

1. I don't think Kansas pays for itself without Texas.
2. You don't need Missouri. You already own the best markets in that state.
3. Virginia pays for itself. North Carolina pays for itself. I don't think Georgia Tech would.
4. If the Big 10 expands again I expect a Virginia school to be the target.
5. I don't think Texas would ever move to the Big 10.
6. If the Big 10 wants more East coast exposure then either a school prominent in Lacrosse or Hockey would be the way to go provided that they are AAU and decent in either football or basketball. Since I can't think of a Hockey school that fits that bill I would bet on Lacrosse.

I think the only way the Big Ten gets into Virginia/North Carolina is if something seismic blows up the ACC. Much the same way a lot of people on the internet speculate about the dissolution of the Big 12. The problem there is that, while the Big 12 members could all probably find a home as part of a negotiation/collusion among conferences and networks, I'm not sure it's just as true of the ACC.

The Big 12 has very good football programs, but very little population outside the state of Texas. The ACC has few very good football programs, but they have a great population base which they have done a very poor job of exploiting. With the addition of Mizzou and A&M the SEC now has both good programs and a large and rabid population base.

If someone could figure out how to pull it off, some division of the ACC between the Big Ten and Big 12 would create two behemoths that are roughly as powerful as the SEC - maybe more so. So, what seismic change would blow up the ACC sufficiently to drive UNC and Virginia to the Big Ten? The Big 12 would have to start thinking as big as the Big Ten does. Forget about going to 12 teams to add a CCG. Think cosmic.

Put West Virginia in your Eastern division. What eastern division, you say? The one that includes Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami and Florida State. Because it will take something dramatic like that to overcome the inertia that presently exists. Because for UNC and UVa to go to the B!G, they are going to want Duke to come with them.

The B1G would be happy to have those three, and then they would have to figure out who #18 should be. Missouri would get some votes, and they should. But Missouri doesn't fix what still remains a major obstacle with the ACC. There are four schools left without a home - Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse and Notre Dame - and you need 12 votes to dissolve the conference. So, the $64 dollar question would be whether the B1G would be willing to take Notre Dame, and whether Notre Dame could stomach going to the B1G. If not, then Syracuse is probably Plan B.

I think both the B1G and Notre Dame would hate being thrown together. But what choice would the Irish have for their other sports? The Big East? The AAC? At the end of the day, no matter how much it hurts, being isolated from the only power football conferences, and potentially cut off from an avenue to any football championship prospects, would force the Irish to give up their prized independence.

Do I think any of this will happen? Absolutely not. I just don't the Big 12 has either the brains or the balls to pull it off.

It will be whatever the networks decide it will be. They write the checks for which the conferences dance. When they figure out the alignments that maximize revenue that is what will happen. AAU, Cultural fit, etc from the conferences will just be loose guidelines.