There are 12 Access/Semifnal bowl slots. The current projection on those slots from CBS are 4 SEC, 1 Big 12, 2 Big 10, 2 Pac 12, 2 ACC, 1 CUSA. Obviously moving those around will shift which slots end up being open, etc, but that's the assumption for this analysis.

The # of slots listed below are only primary slots.

SEC (4 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 13 total) - Kentucky/SouthCarolina/Tennessee/Florida/Arkansas are the bubble teams. I'm projecting that all of the east teams get in, but Arkansas does not.

Prediction: 13 slots, 12 teams, Independence open.

Big 12 (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - 6 teams are likely in, with Texas Tech and Texas on the bubble. I don't think either one makes it.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

Big 10 (2 Access/Semi slots, 8 additional, 10 total) - There are 10 teams likely to be eligible, with Michigan/Northwestern being the bubble teams. I don't think either of them make it.

Prediction: 10 slots, 10 teams

Pac 12 (2 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 8 total) - Eight teams are in good shape, with Oregon St and California on the bubble. One of those will make it.

Prediction: 8 slots, 9 teams

ACC (2 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 11 total) - Still a mess. I think there are 9 that are in good shape, with UNC, Pitt, UVA on the bubble. I think one of those makes it. ND will also have to use an ACC bowl slot.

Prediction: 11 slots, 10 teams, with Notre Dame making 11

AAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - The fight for the access slot between Marshall and ECU will trickle down to the 6 win teams in the AAC and CUSA trying to get a bowl bid. ECU's loss puts them out of the access picture at the time, so one of their teams will be without a primary slot.

Prediction: 5 slots, 6 teams

CUSA (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - Marshall, MT, Rice, and La Tech look to be in, and from there, it's a mess. UTEP and UAB are in decent position, with WKU as the lone real bubble team. I'm putting them in for this projection.

Prediction: 6 slots, 7 teams

MWC (0 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 6 total) - Six teams that are locks. Fresno St, SJSU, Wyoming are on the bubble. I think one of them makes it

Prediction: 6 slots, 7 teams

MAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - They have 6 in, with Ohio, Ball St and Buffalo on the bubble. Those extra teams are probably left in the cold at this point, no matter how many there are.

Prediction: 5 slots, 7 teams

SBC (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - GaSo, App St, and Idaho are ineligible for either FBS transition or academic reasons. ULM is on the bubble, but I have them out right now.

Prediction: 3 slots, 4 teams

Independent (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - Army, Navy, and BYU all have agreements with bowls, while Notre Dame has the ACC deal. ND is out of the access picture in the latest CBS projection, meaning they will take an ACC slot. Army will not fill theirs.

Prediction: 3 slots, 3 teams

Summary
SEC: Independence open (CUSA/AAC? backup)
Big 12: none
Big 10: none
Pac 12: 1 extra team
ACC: with ND, they will come out without an extra slot/team
AAC: 1 extra team
CUSA: 1 extra team
MWC: 1 extra team
MAC: 2 extra teams
SBC: 1 extra team
Indy: Armed Forces open, Notre Dame uses ACC slot

So, in this scenario, you have only the Independence Bowl and Armed Forces Bowl slots open, with P12/AAC/CUSA/MWC/MAC/MAC/SBC as the extra teams, assuming no wheeling and dealing (and there inevitably will be).

CUSA will exercise its backup agreement with Independence (or will they? AAC also claims this slot) if WKU can become CUSA's 7th bowl eligible team. Would be a shame for CUSA to not fill Independence vs. ACC. That leaves Armed Forces, who would likely take the Pac 12 team. That's all folks.