Did a little more research on the epidemiology of non-P5 coaches, using encounters with Bailiff as a sample.

By my count, over his first 7 seasons, Bailiff coached against 34 different coaches in non-P5 programs. The most interesting immediate finding is that he has a winning record against this group, 37-30. He is 3-17 against P5 schools, with the wins coming against Kansas and Purdue.

But focusing on the non-p5, 13 of those coaches are still in place. His record against them is 13-10.

10 were clearly fired with very bad aggregate records, and Bailiff went 12-5 against that group.

6 were promoted to BCS jobs, and Bailiff went 3-10 against that group

5 retired or kind of retired (were pushed out but with tenures of 7 years or longer, they were clearly successful enough to get multiple extensions). Bailiff went 9-5 against this group.

Biggest surprise to me is the 6 promotions vs. 10 relegations. I thought chance of success in non-P5 was far worse than that.