WORTH

What is worth to a conference is what can benefit the whole conference or what can be share by all members.

I don’t believe the size of stadium or seat capacity benefits anyone else in the conference. This is true with the number of attendant unless they share revenue from tickets sells.

You like size of that enrollment? It’s one of the biggest in the country.
Look at the size of that endowment, it’s huge. Do they share that with everyone in the conference?
All of these and other metrics don’t add an inch to any of their member but it makes them feel good.

You said that because you are a fan of a school that doesn't measure up to these metrics. Even so, if they don’t benefit the collective then the whole profit nothing from that addition.

What these metrics pointed out is the worthiness of the candidate to sit at the table but bring nothing of great worth that benefit everyone that sat the table.

EYEBALLS

So let us look at the worth of a candidate or worth of everyone in the conference. First, we need identify what revenue that contribute by everyone and share by everyone. Conference media right or its value is the only thing share by everyone that is benefiting everyone equally.

What is it that determines the value media right?

Any value of anything is whatever the costumer willing to pay for it. We know networks are the conference customers for the products that conference provided. And they are ESPN, FOX sport, and NBC sport and others in minor roles are buying or paying for those media right.

Next question would be how would they know how much to pay for them. As it turns out, they (networks) have customers too (1) in sponsors and (2) the rest of us fanatics. It’s funny, 1 & 2 need each other. Sponsors are willing to pay premium to have their products exposure to our eyeballs. The more eyeballs the more value to a sponsor.

Okay, I walk everybody through my reasoning and logic and concluded that eyeballs are valuable to a conference. Anyone bring a lot of eyeballs to the table would have a seat at the big boy table.

RANKING SCHOOL

Looking at school worth, you have three type of school: a state university, a regional (‘State’ in their name) or directional university, and a city university.

I ranked a state university or a flag-ship university as the most valuable as they would get the largest fans support from that state maybe as high as 85% of the state sport fans population even when in competition with other universities in the state.

The next valuable school type would be those regional and directional type where they can count on a few surrounding counties.

A city university is a choice when the first and second is off the table.

So the first tier in term of media value or worth is a flag-ship university especially in a high populated state.

Conferences with a lot of these first tier schools are most profitable and stable. Even among the so called power conferences, those have a lot of flag-ship universities have better TV contract.

Notice – TV rating reflect the quality of a team regardless of school type. But quality or winning is never the same from year to year. The only sure thing is the populations don’t grow or drop from year to year. You can point out at TV rating after the fact but you can’t guarantee those rating into the future. But population or eyeballs are more constant and predictable.

Ranking conferences base on TV contracts and stability
1) PAC-12
2) B1G 10
3) SEC
.
4) B12
5) ACC

4 and 5 can switch places but personally those two are irrelevance in the future.

Now let apply what layout from above to conference realignment.

I see only 3 super conferences in PAC-16, B1G 10, and SEC. The remaining conferences are filler. The ACC would lose to 2 teams but B12 would lose 6 teams.

Currently the most valuable schools in the ACC are North Carolina and Virginia. Those are the only flag-ship universities the B1G and SEC would go after base on the model above. I think those two would split base on culture and academic fit, one goes north and other south.

The B12 has 3.5 flag-ship universities, just kidding. Texas is so valuable that the PAC would Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The SEC would take Kansas for new market and basketball. They don’t need any more football school. The ACC would take West Virginia and Cincinnati to get back to 14.5.

The remaining B12, AAC, and MWC would join force to form Big 12 or maybe Big 16.

Those in the AAC didn’t make the cut in the Big 12 or B16 would join the C-USA but keep the name American, its cooler name. I think Army and UMass would be in this group too.

CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF

I think 4 teams are big enough for championship playoff given there would only 3 super conferences. And the highest runner up would fill the 4th spot or the highest ranked team from filler conferences.

The representative of the west coast is PAC-16 champ. And from the north and northeast is the B1G champ. And finally the south and south east is SEC champ. So every part of the country is represented. You don’t want the post season to go too long just to crown the best college football team in the country.

The other BCS bowl games would be filling up with those runner-up teams and champ from ACC and champ B12/B16 that didn’t make it in the playoff games.

This is what I believe as "the writing on the wall".

This is one of the reason I believe why teams leaving ACC and the B12.

They want to sit with the grown-up.

The other reasons would be both the ACC and the B12 TV contracts are at the upper limits and it can’t go any higher. ESPN and FOX over pay them already base on my model.

The ACC has only two states in North Carolina and Virginia. And the B12 has Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and a small providence in east coast.

Okay test out my theory, will the B12 able to expand? I believe they can’t expand, based on my model, all those teams that can add value already in the super conferences.

So the next round of TV contract, the separation or gap will be too big for those teams that have the option will leave their current conference.

This is just my theory based on the model that I layout above.