(03-18-2014 12:18 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-16-2014 10:55 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  

(03-14-2014 03:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-14-2014 03:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If money is the organizing principle, think of how much you could make by starting a new league that puts together the six most valuable Big Ten schools and the six most valuable ACC schools. Or an all-southern league that cherry-picks UT and OU and adds them to the most valuable SEC and ACC properties while not including the less-valuable "athletic franchises".

We might get there Wedge, but I think like filtering fine wine, there are a few more transitions to go through first. And I do think so far the whole process has been one of filtration. The Big East was used as a filter for the top up and coming programs and some strong basketball product. Then the ACC was used to filter the Big East. Three conferences have been used to filter the Big 12. And I don't think the filtration is at all complete.

So far the Big 10 has been strengthened in markets with loads of Alumni and then there is the Nebraska content add. I look for more markets with their next two at minimum and 1 market and 1 content add at best.

The SEC got two market adds it's just fortunate that one was also a regional content add as well.

The PAC got two market adds that serve as bridges as well.

The ACC gained huge product in basketball and added some nice markets, but the Maryland loss bisected their market footprint. It will be interesting to see if they are now remade into the 4th national brand conference or whether they are filtered.

I consider the Big 12 the most likely to be filtered next and by the PAC if they sell part of their network rights. But Texas and Oklahoma along with Kansas could be rebuilt into the 4th national brand conference should something happen in the ACC. We'll see.

First, great thoughts as always, JR. You lay out a lot of good information that is actually being used in this realignment process. Your view of the Big 12 as the next conference to be filtered is accurate, and I think it was only disrupted by 2 things: 1) ESPN seeing it occurring and putting a stop to it by a move that a river gambler may not have even tried, the LHN. 2) Reading between the lines from Gee and others, the Big 10's blindness to conditions by concentrating solely on eastward expansion.

With the ACC rallying the troops, not adding Missouri and Kansas as Big 10 schools #15 and #16 has to be a regret. Texas, as is always the case and proven by JR's 1st and 2nd scenarios being completely contingent on them moving, might as well be the Notre Dame during the BCS years. If you all remember, it felt like the BCS commissioners and Notre Dame basically called the shots.

So BBB where does Texas go?
1. PAC if ESPN can acquire 50% ownership of the PACN When? Sooner than the grant of rights expire since ESPN is in position to place eight between the PAC/SEC/ACC and/or possibly Big 10.

2. ACC if ESPN can get a commitment date out of Notre Dame. When? Soon if they can get to PAC and Big 10 to both take a pair. In 12 years if they can't.

3. Big 12 if ESPN can get a long term commitment out of the Big 10 for T1 and can morph the LHN into a New Big 12 Conference Network. When? At the end of 12 years.

4. SEC only if at the end of 12 years Texas and OU make the most money there, and that is possible.

5. Independent in the ACC but only if N.D. refuses to join and they can bring their friends from the Big 12.

There is one more option:

6. Independent in a rebuilt B12 after KU, OU, and maybe a few others leave. They would still probably rule that conference, while at the same time having the national schedule they want for FB.

It will be interesting to see what direction Texas goes. Dodds favored a eastern path if they left the B12 and he was infatuated with Notre Dame. So it is almost certain that they would have gone to the ACC if the B12 failed and he had his way. He helped convince Powers to back out of the PAC 16 deal in 2010. Now that he is out, Patterson, the new AD, has been a PAC guy (ASU) and worked for Portland in the NBA, and their president Powers is a PAC guy. I think they will be more open to the PAC than they were when Dodds was the AD.

Texas will try to keep the B12 intact for now and if it fails, I still think they look east first, but if they get a better deal from the PAC than one of the eastern conferences they might take it the next go around. They probably go where they feel they will have the most power as they mint money regardless. So probably options 5 or 6, if option 3 (keeping the B12 intact) fails.

One wonders to what extent ESPN will go to to keep the Big 12 together.
If the Big 12 stays intact then we will keep the status quo.
The PAC can't expand and will continue with distribution struggles if they can not move east. The B1G is kind of an incomplete work of art. Weak eastern additions in Rutgers and Maryland and the odd duck in Nebraska stuck out in the west.
All the while the ESPN properties keep getting stronger. But to what extent would ESPN go to keep the Big 12 viable?