Before Creighton leaving last year(and replaced with Loyola-Ill), the MVC had the longest continuous membership outside of the Ivy in D1 but the league is an odd combo of private and public schools, FCS scholarship, non-scholarship, and non football schools . It should be noted that the MVFC(Missouri valley football conference is a separate conference but has several MVC schools). I think the conference will experience at least 1 or 2 more schools leave in the next few years.

How I rank the teams in terms of flight risk:

1) Missouri State (FCS) The school has been in talks with some of the sunbelt schools for 20 years according to some about going FBS, and has been in talks with the SBC since at least 2003 about going FBS according to the Springfield New-Leader. The MVC has been a good conference in basketball so dropping to the sunbelt in has always kept the school from making the FBS jump. With CU gone and WSU looking like a major flight risk, I think MSU is looking hard at the Sunbelt and MAC with long term goals of CUSA/AAC. The school is a large public school (largest enrolement in the MVC and 2nd largest school in Missouri), so the school would be a better cultural fit in the sunbelt than with the small private schools in the MVC.

2) Wichita State (no football) like CU, their basketball program has outgrown the MVC and they have to be looking at joining a better conference. Being a public school keeps them out of the big east. The A10 could be argued as a better basketball conference but would it be worth the travel for both the A10 and WSU to agree to it. With some of the better teams as being big east targets, WSU should be leary of going there. The AAC and MWC seem to be the conferences they would be the best basketball fits in but not having football will probably keep them out. I think they will jump at an offer but not having football and being public in the middle of kansas seems to hold them back IMO.

3) Illinois State. (FCS-MVFC) A state school that has hinted at FBS aspirations over the years. The MAC would be their target but the sun belt could be a possibly as well.

4) Bradley (no football) most likely would go to the A10 if offered

5) Evansville. (no football) There have been rumors they have looked into the horizon so they can be more competitive.

6) Indiana State (FCS-MVFC) school doesn't appear to be shopping but has a good basketball program in a state rich in college basketball history. If they didn't have football I could see them looking east at the A10, but I don't think they have the pieces in place to consider going FBS so the MAC isn't an option in the near future. They would mostly likely stick with the MVFC schools if there is a big shakeup in the MVC.

7) Southern Ill. (FCS-MVFC) They have had two recent sweet 16 appearances but the program has taken a hard fall. I think the MAC would have been interested in them when their hoops team was looking powerful but they are in a sparsely populated area and a small TV market so they are off the FBS radar. If the MVC falls apart, they would most likely stick with the MVFC schools or maybe look at the ohio valley.

8) Drake (non scholly, no baseball) They have been in the MVC longer than any other school. I see no reason they would look at other conferences but if major changes happen to the conference such as the conference adding more public FCS schools, Drake could look east towards basketball only conferences if they are told they need to upgrade their football to scholarship.

9) Northern Iowa (FCS-MVFC, no baseball), program has budget issues which caused the baseball team to be recently dropped, and Iowa already has 2 FBS teams so I think the MAC is out of reach for them in the near future. Being traditionally a football school, I see them wanting to stay with NDSU.

10) Loyola University Chicago (no football, no baseball). The newest member of the MVC, not a flight risk.

MVFC schools not in the MVC: Youngstown St, North Dakota, No Dakota St, So Dakota State, W. Ill)

Potential MVC schools. The conference may continue being a hybrid or may try to add the stronger MVFC schools and start football as an official MVC sport. I think a power struggle between the public and privates could intensify during the next round of replacing a school

How I rank the potential adds

private schools
1) ORU
2) Belmont
3 Denver

public schools
1) NDSU (best option if you ignore location)
2) UIC
3) UW-Mil
4) SDSU
5) UMKC