From SB Nation:

1. Projected S&P+ (5-Year Weighted Average). This is exactly what it says -- a five-year weighted S&P+ average, with 2013 getting 5x the weight, 2012 4x, ..., and 2009 1x. It accounts for about 60 percent of the overall projections. In college football, the best predictor of what you will do is what you've done. Things don't change a whole lot from year to year.

2. Projected S&P+ (Returning Starters). This takes last year's S&P+ ratings and adjusts for your number of returning starters. Obviously returning starters is a pretty vague, debatable number, but at this stage in the game, one month removed from the last season, it's what we have to work with. For now, the best starter numbers to work with are probably Phil Steele's. For my projections, I'll replace his numbers with mine (which are more about top contributors than simply who started) as I derive them. For now, Phil's will do just fine. This number accounts for about 30 percent of the overall projections.

3. Projected S&P+ (2-Year Recruiting). As discussed previously, I have become convinced that a five-year recruiting average is redundant; by the time you're 3-4 years removed from a recruiting class's signing, you've replaced potential (which is what the recruiting rankings reflect) with production. Using two years (as approximately 10 percent of the overall projections) attempts to fill in the gaps between the number of players you lose from last year and the quality of players that will be replacing them.

That's pretty much it. 60-30-10(ish). In Phil Steele parlance, I'm using THREE SETS OF POWER RANKINGS. Below are the projections. (NOTE: By the time the FO Almanac rolls around, we'll have come up with rough projections for the FBS newbies -- Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Old Dominion -- but for now these are just the FBS teams that were also FBS teams last year.)

The Top 4
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. South Carolina

17. Notre Dame

ACC
14. Clemson
20. Louisville
22. Virginia Tech
36. North Carolina
37. Miami
43. Pittsburgh
44. Georgia Tech
55. Duke
63. Virginia
66. Syracuse
68. North Carolina State
80 Boston College
89. Wake Forest

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/...rojections