A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.

There have been many posts on this board analyzing how two or more conferences may invite schools from the Big 12 at the same time so that eight Big 12 schools could vote to dissolve that conference in order to avoid paying an exit fee and the grant of rights. The problem with all of such previous scenarios is that they did not take into account that no conference would agree to take a school they did not really want so another conference could get stronger, ie. The SEC taking in Oklahoma State so another conference could get Oklahoma and/or Texas. This post resolves this problem.

I start with the following five postulates: 1) the B1G would love to invite Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas together to get to the Texas market and preserve its contiguous boundary hegemony, 2) The PAC would also love to have those same three schools and would take their little brothers Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech to get them, 3) Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas would prefer not to join the PAC because if they did they would have when given the chance three years ago, probably because of distance, time zone differences and the preference of staying put or joining other conferences, 4) The SEC does not want Kansas State, Oklahoma State or Texas Tech, and 5) It takes 8 schools to vote for the dissolution of the Big 12. I personally think the number is 7, but that is not the prevailing opinion on this board, so I went with 8. I also do not believe the Big 12 would have to be dissolved in order for schools to exit the Big 12 because I do not agree with the conventional wisdom that holds a grant of rights is an inescapable jail sentence.

For this to happen it would have to be initiated by the schools wanting to leave the Big 12, which means they actually would want to leave. This post presumes such schools would want to leave if and when Texas decides it wants to leave the big 12 because such ruminations would cause near panic to start for all Big 12 schools. I will also state this is not something I would want to happen being an SEC fan second (UGA fan first and foremost) because this would strengthen the B1G considerably. This is nothing more than game theory.
So how could it happen?

The B1G invites Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Why would the B1G do this? This answer should be self evident. There are almost as many pairs of eyeballs in Texas as there are stars at night that are big and bright deep in the heart of Texas. The conference would remain contiguous, the Oklahoma/Nebraska rivalry is renewed and the B1G gets Kansas basketball.

The PAC invites Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State.
Why would the PAC do this? This certainly would not be the PAC’s first option as they would definitely prefer to have Texas in their conference, but the PAC could be incentivized. While the four little brothers (Iowa/Iowa State) would bring a lot of new viewers in the central time zone to the PAC Network by themselves, with the PAC Network broadcasting the little brothers’ home games hosting their big brothers, especially Texas Tech/Texas, the real value to the PAC in this sort of scenario would be for these games to be part of a larger B1G/PAC scheduling alliance matching up the rest of the B1G with the remaining schools in the PAC. A B1G/PAC Alliance almost happened two years ago with the PAC originally agreeing to it but then backing out after the non-traditional football powers decided they did not want the extra tough game, and USC and Stanford deciding ND was enough annual out of conference competition. But things have changed with the strength of schedule component of the College Football Playoffs, and the appeal of B1G/PAC synergy may now be too much to resist for both conferences. Such an alliance would now have interested viewers stretching from the Northeast, across the Midwest, down through Texas, west to California and up the West Coast. If the previous arrangement was almost good enough, then this could well do it.

The ACC invites West Virginia.
Why would the ACC want to do this? I could see three scenarios why the ACC would invite West Virginia.
One reason is they might decide it would be best for the conference to add another football power. Because of academics, West Virginia was never wanted by the ACC, but things have changed. The ACC has cracked the academic requirement seal by letting in Louisville, and the ACC is trying to start their own network. West Virginia would increase the football brand of the ACC, especially by renewing West Virginia’s rivalries with Pitt, Virginia Tech, Louisville and others.

The second reason might be the Big 12 dissolution could cause the SEC to expand to match the expansion of the B1G and PAC. This would be likely in my opinion, and the only schools left the SEC would want would be in the ACC. By deciding to go large the SEC would then invite football powers FSU and Clemson and see what other schools jump ship with them. Such offers could cause the SEC to end up with a school in the states of Virginia and North Carolina. Instead of a ruthless raid, the SEC could reach an understanding that if some schools were to join the SEC, the SEC would agree to a scheduling alliance with the remaining members of the ACC.

The third scenario is the B1G raiding the ACC. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas make three, an odd number. The B1G would need either one or three more schools. Those three might be UNC, UVA and GT or even ND. If the B1G was somewhat attractive before it would be even more so with the three new additions. If the B1G could not get a big fish out of the ACC, and for whatever reason passes on UConn, there is, in my opinion, an ACC outlier that is low hanging fruit. A school that brings in the third large market in the Northeast, and arguably the nation’s best hockey program, which is a money making sport with the BTN. That school is Boston College. Would BC be the B1G’s first, second or third choice? No, of course not, especially because it is not a member of the AAU, but if the Rutgers model works then Boston College is a potential gold mine.

Lurker Above