A Democrat might win California? Bush will win New York?

Put down the crack pipe, son.

Unless Bush dumps Cheney for Giuliani, Bush has no chance in either state.

Al Gore got the most votes in 2000 in part because he piled up such wide majorities in New York and California. If small rectangular red states weren't overrepresented in the electoral college, Al Gore would be president today.

The race will come down to states like Michigan and Ohio, states that are hemmoraging good-paying manufacturing jobs right now.

To win these states, Bush is either going to have to:

1. Catch that guy responsible for the attack on the World Trade Center. Bush isn't into saying his name too much these days, but it rhymes with "Bahama."
2. Spend millions of dollars on television ads aimed at convincing the Rust Belt that that toppling Saddam Hussein and defending marriage from gays and lesbians is more important than actually having a good-paying job on which one can raise a family.


If both campaigns had equal resources, I'd lay my money on the Democrats to win. But Bush has a ton of dough, so who knows?

The Democratic problem right now is a lack of supporters who can afford to plunk down $2,000 per pop at a fundraiser. Howard Dean has pointed to a new way of raising money, but I'm not sure the Democratic Party can absorb his lessons in time for November.

Also, I think Democrats would be better off with Edwards, but it's looking kind of grim for that right now.