(02-01-2018 07:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (02-01-2018 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote: If that is the final number and there isn't another disbursement adjustment as there has been in years past prior to the Spring Meetings then this will not be up to expectations.
Yes, if that is correct, then it will mean revenues for 2017 were essentially flat compared to 2016, when SEC revenue was $639m and disbursements ranged from $39.1m to $41.9m per school.
That won't cut it with B1G revenues coming fully online.
It looks like a about a half million dollar raise on average. But the serious XM money isn't in there yet, nor is the SECN Mexico money although the latter won't be that big of a bump. And I wasn't kidding when I said that we've announced a lowball figure before only to revise.
I'll be watching the BTN valuation after their disbursements this year. If it goes down another 150 million in value then we'll know they have been divesting the original 11 members. We'll also see what their payouts are when made.
But Quo your pet theory has yet to prove to be correct. The most undervalued contract left on the market is the SEC's deal with CBS and that one is coming to an end in 2024 with the bids coming in in 2023.
If the rights money is reaching peak then 2024 will place even more pressure on additions.
I suspect the SEC office will be considering that 9th conference game for a renegotiated payout as well.
The back and forth of this is about to end. And with the contracts being manipulated to essentially end simultaneously I'd say the days of the networks permitting the staggered due dates will end as well. Obviously they don't like having one conference's contract becoming the targeted goal of the next. The ACC is locked up long term, but they are locked up long term with the lowest starting pay.
By the end of the disclosures this year we should know a lot more about how things are playing out. And as MacFroggy pointed out, 3 million in bowl revenue was likely lost on the CFP rotation. I expected the SEC to have between 44 to 45 million this year. That accounts for the disparity. We've been getting about 2 million more per year with the escalation. By 2024 we should be around 53 to 54 million conservatively. If Amazon tosses their hat in the ring we all might see more raises. If FOX remains a silent conspiratorial partner with Disney we might have already peaked.
There's a lot to play out between here and there.