Going to start just 1 thread for Bracketology- will update title as we go along....

for 2/1- from Lunardi-
Nova 1 E in Pittsburgh Michigan/Alabama rd 2
Marquette 11 E in Pittsburgh Miami, Cincy
Providence 10 E in Nashville TCU, Auburn
Xavier 2 W in Nashville St Mary's/USC rd 2
Seton Hall 5 S in Boise Loyola, Tennessee
Creighton 6 S in Wichita NC ST/SMU, Oklahoma
Butler 8 MW in Detroit Florida St, Purdue

Providence 3rd team with a bye
Marquette last team with a bye

Saturday is just gigantic. Loser is in a LOT of trouble I think.

We aren't making the tournament. Enjoy the thought of currently being in it though!

what I would call a pretty ugly one from Jerry Palm today-
Butler 9 S vs Wichita St, Virginia in Charlotte
Seton Hall 6 S vs VT/Kan St, Mich St in Detroit
Nova 1 E vs FSU/Missouri in Pittsburgh
Creighton 9 W vs TCU, Duke in Charlotte
Providence 9 MW vs Nevada, Purdue in Detroit
Xavier 2 MW vs Louisville/New Mexico St in Nashville

this would be IMO the absolute worst case scenario. Creighton's projected to have a 258 OOC SOS(right now it's at 269). They only have road wins in conference play vs Georgetown and St John's. I could easily see them like this a line or 2 lower than many folks think because of the SOS.

And an UGLY scenario for Seton Hall. And probably worst case scenario for Xavier as well.

A big mix today from Lunardi:
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh Florida St/TCU rd 2
Seton Hall 6 E Dallas Houston, Texas Tech
Xavier 1 W Nashville Wagner, Florida/Arizona St
Butler 7 W Charlotte Arkansas, Duke
Creighton 7 S Nashville M Tennessee, Auburn
Providence 11 MW Dallas Gonzaga, Clemson

Providence last team with bye
Marquette 1st team out

The good- obviously Xavier being a 1. Creighton having by far the best path from a 7 seed
the bad- Butler with a brutal path. Providence with a yuck as well...

Lunardi from today:
Butler 7 S Nashville vs TCU, Cincy
Xavier 1 W Nashville vs Nevada/Texas
Creighton 6 W Dallas vs New Mexico St, Auburn
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Florida St/Alabama
Seton Hall 7 E Detroit vs Arkansas, Mich St
Providence 10 MW Charlotte vs Florida, Duke

Providence 3rd team with bye
Marquette 2nd team out

Pretty ugly one for the other 4 non 1 seeds. Only one you feel anywhere near good with is Butler. Seton Hall and Providence with the 2 worst paths for a 7/10 seed.

Villanova with the #2 overall seed now for first time in a few weeks after last night.

I think with Marquette at least- Boise listed right now as MWC automatic team as leading conference. looks like if they don't win, they're out. So Marquette may be 1st team out right now if that were the case.

(02-08-2018 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think with Marquette at least- Boise listed right now as MWC automatic team as leading conference. looks like if they don't win, they're out. So Marquette may be 1st team out right now if that were the case.

If Marquette doesn't go dancing this year, they have no one to blame but themselves. They get blown out by Butler in a tournament-ramification game, then lose to Providence at home on National Marquette Day. Then, they nearly blow last night's game after Rowsey fouls a three point shooter at the end of the game. Georgetown and St. Johns are nowhere near the automatic wins that would predicted earlier in the season. The two against Creighton will be very tough as well.

A lot has to go in their favor, after they failed to capitalize on certain games earlier this year.

(02-08-2018 10:23 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think with Marquette at least- Boise listed right now as MWC automatic team as leading conference. looks like if they don't win, they're out. So Marquette may be 1st team out right now if that were the case.

If Marquette doesn't go dancing this year, they have no one to blame but themselves. They get blown out by Butler in a tournament-ramification game, then lose to Providence at home on National Marquette Day. Then, they nearly blow last night's game after Rowsey fouls a three point shooter at the end of the game. Georgetown and St. Johns are nowhere near the automatic wins that would predicted earlier in the season. The two against Creighton will be very tough as well.

A lot has to go in their favor, after they failed to capitalize on certain games earlier this year.

No doubt. Several teams can say that- Temple in AAC if they miss would be the same way(if they don't have the 4 bad losses, they're a lock right now).

2/12 update from Lunardi
Butler 8 S Charlotte vs Missouri, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Pittsburgh vs Arkansas, Cincy
Seton Hall 9 W Detroit vs TCU, Purdue
Providence 10 W Wichita vs Texas A&M, Kansas
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Nevada/Louisville rd 2
Xavier 1 MW Nashville vs Kentucky/Florida St rd 2

Providence 3rd team with a bye

If you had told me a month ago that Seton Hall would be a 9 seed, I'd have said you were insane.

(02-12-2018 09:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  2/12 update from Lunardi
Butler 8 S Charlotte vs Missouri, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Pittsburgh vs Arkansas, Cincy
Seton Hall 9 W Detroit vs TCU, Purdue
Providence 10 W Wichita vs Texas A&M, Kansas
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Nevada/Louisville rd 2
Xavier 1 MW Nashville vs Kentucky/Florida St rd 2

Providence 3rd team with a bye

If you had told me a month ago that Seton Hall would be a 9 seed, I'd have said you were insane.

Marquette, absolutely rightly so, is now off the bubble completely. Hall is an intriguing tournament team because they have so much veteran leadership, if they can finish strong and get up to a 6/7, it will go a long way in determining how far they can go. 8/9 will be brutal, IMO. Butler and Creighton can compete with anyone.

The best part about the current seedings is that Nova/X are 1's. That is so HUGE. If things remain the same, the Big East is looking at its strongest tournament selection yet. While its no guarantee they go far, they are set up incredibly well for a dual-BE tournament run.

Seton Hall has 6 games left...
1 big favorite in- vs DePaul
2 big underdogs in- vs Nova and Xavier

other 3 games will really tell the story- @ Providence, @ St John's, and Butler
assuming they go 1-2 in the other 3 games they're big favorites/dogs-
3-0 in other 3 gets them to 21-10 22.8 RPI
2-1 in other 3 gets them to 20-11 30.5 RPI
1-2 in other 3 gets them to 19-12 40.9 RPI
0-3 in other 3 gets them to 18-13 51.4 RPI

Just looking at those numbers might need to go 4-2 rest of the way, and then win a game in the BET to avoid falling to the 8/9 line. Even 7 lines aren't pretty.

from today-
Bracketville- #1 bracketology from Bracket Matrix:
Seton Hall 8 S Charlotte vs TCU, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Nashville vs Kansas St, Auburn
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Alabama/Miami rd 2
Providence 10 E Detroit vs Florida, Mich St
Xavier 1 MW Detroit vs Va Tech/Texas A&M rd 2
Butler 7 MW Nashville vs Oklahoma, UNC

Marquette 5th team out

Seed list:
Nova 2
Xavier 3
Butler 26
Creighton 27
Seton Hall 29
Providence 39

ESPN's Lunardi:
Seton Hall 8 S Charlotte vs Alabama, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Detroit vs Va Tech, Purdue
Butler 8 W Wichita vs Missouri, Kansas
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma/NC State rd 2
Providence 11 E Dallas vs Michigan, Wichita St
Xavier 1 MW Pittsburgh vs Arkansas/Miami rd 2

Providence- last team with bye

Lunardi's path for Nova would obviously really suck. Oklahoma, Ohio St, and Duke/Wichita? compare to just Xavier- Arkansas, Texas Tech, and Michigan St/Cincy.

one more from today- CBS-Jerry Palm:
Seton Hall 6 S Dallas vs Alabama, Texas Tech
Butler 8 W Wichita vs Florida St, Kansas
Nova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M, NC State
Providence 11 E Dallas vs TCU, Tennessee
Creighton 7 E Charlotte vs Florida, Duke
Xavier 1 MW Detroit vs Miami/Oklahoma rd 2

Xavier gets the sucky 1 path with Oklahoma. One thing about that- odds are 2/3 that if the Big East gets 2 1 seeds, and Kansas gets a 1 seed- that the 1 seed would draw Oklahoma. Remember, Kansas can not see Oklahoma in rd 2(since they played twice in the regular season). So it would be really good for the Big East if Kansas got out of the 1 line if Oklahoma is going to be in that 8/9 mix.

6 looks to be a safe bet.

(02-26-2018 03:18 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  6 looks to be a safe bet.

I don't think i'd call Providence a safe bet yet by any stretch of the imagination. 3 games left- Xavier, St John's, and then BET game vs Creighton I think most likely(3/6 game)- needing 1 of those 3 games. 18-14 Providence IMO has no chance of getting in the tourney.

and I would also say Providence at 19-14 would be in, but almost guaranteed to be in Dayton for the FF.

IMO tonight is one of the most important games of the year for the Big East- Oklahoma @ Baylor. IMO Big East fans should be rooting big time for Oklahoma. Gets Oklahoma off the 8-9 line- protecting Xavier/Nova- and helps Providence/Marquette at the back side of the bracket as well.

Lunardi update-
Seton Hall 8 S Charlotte vs St Mary's, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Detroit vs Kansas St, Purdue
Butler 8 W Wichita vs Florida St, Kansas
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M/NC State rd 2
Providence 11 E PIG Dallas vs Texas, Florida, Cincy
Xavier 1 MW Pittsburgh vs Va Tech/Missouri rd 2

Providence 4th team in
Marquette 7th team out

Providence falls to PIG territory. I think they're a pretty easy case-
0 wins rest of way- NIT
1 win rest of way- Dayton
2 or more wins rest of way- avoids Dayton

(02-28-2018 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Lunardi update-
Seton Hall 8 S Charlotte vs St Mary's, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Detroit vs Kansas St, Purdue
Butler 8 W Wichita vs Florida St, Kansas
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M/NC State rd 2
Providence 11 E PIG Dallas vs Texas, Florida, Cincy
Xavier 1 MW Pittsburgh vs Va Tech/Missouri rd 2

Providence 4th team in
Marquette 7th team out

Providence falls to PIG territory. I think they're a pretty easy case-
0 wins rest of way- NIT
1 win rest of way- Dayton
2 or more wins rest of way- avoids Dayton

Two #1 seeds would be amazing. It would really set up the league nicely to have two teams with long March runs.

(02-28-2018 02:23 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Lunardi update-
Seton Hall 8 S Charlotte vs St Mary's, Virginia
Creighton 7 S Detroit vs Kansas St, Purdue
Butler 8 W Wichita vs Florida St, Kansas
Villanova 1 E Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M/NC State rd 2
Providence 11 E PIG Dallas vs Texas, Florida, Cincy
Xavier 1 MW Pittsburgh vs Va Tech/Missouri rd 2

Providence 4th team in
Marquette 7th team out

Providence falls to PIG territory. I think they're a pretty easy case-
0 wins rest of way- NIT
1 win rest of way- Dayton
2 or more wins rest of way- avoids Dayton

Two #1 seeds would be amazing. It would really set up the league nicely to have two teams with long March runs.

yeah, though I think Xavier could be pretty precarious if they lose yet again to Nova. Their advanced metrics are not good. They are the 11th best advanced metrics team. I could easily see them falling out of the 1 line with that, especially if this committee is progressive with that kind of stuff.

It's funny, I think you hear some folks saying it'd be better for the league for Providence to win tonight. I think you can make a really good case that it'd be much better for the league for Xavier to win tonight. Xavier getting a 1 seed is much better for the league than for Providence to make it in as a 8-10 seed(but bumping Xavier down to a 2 seed).