Nerdlinger
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RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(08-19-2017 03:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: So if the Pac's gambit in 2010 to gut the Big 12 actually succeeded, how would everything have gone down? I'm guessing that CU and the Texoma 4 (OU/OSU/UT/TT) wouldn't move until 2012. This would allow time for the other Big 12 schools to make arrangements with other conferences and permit the Big 12 to dissolve itself without anyone paying exit fees. This might also have delayed the departure of NU until 2012, but I'm not sure about that. Missouri and Texas A&M are picked up by the SEC in 2012 as actually occurred, while Baylor, ISU, KU, and KSU join the Big East.
I doubt that the Big East's expansion would slow the decline of the conference. If anything, I think adding such far-flung schools of dubious value (besides KU) would accelerate the decline. TCU was scheduled to join the Big East in 2012, but that would put the conference at 13 football members. Perhaps TCU's entrance would be delayed? I believe Pitt and Syracuse would still have left for the ACC in 2013, which was the more stable of the two major east coast conferences at the time. TCU joins in 2013 to keep the conference at 12 football members. Here the Big East is not as desperate to add schools as they were in our timeline, so Boise and SDSU don't receive an invite, while of the C-USA schools, only Houston is invited.
I think ND is given the same deal by the ACC as they actually were and so departs in 2013 too. Rutgers will leave for the Big Ten in 2014. Maryland is still going to be poached by the Big Ten, so the ACC is still going to seek a replacement, and Louisville is still likely to be that replacement. WVU is technically up for grabs too, but their academics are worse than Louisville. Would there be a split between the Catholic 7 and the football schools? I really don't know, though I'm inclined to say yes. They will take the Big East name, while the football schools might possibly pick up the discarded but valuable Big 12 name. In 2014, Louisville and Rutgers are replaced by UCF and Navy, the latter of which joins a year earlier than scheduled in reality.
Another question is does the Big East/Big 12 retain its "power" status with the advent of the CFP? My guess is that the conference is no longer considered a power, as it's not all that much better off than the American in our timeline.
The evolution of the (old) Big East/(new) Big 12:
2011 Big East
FB: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, USF, WVU
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova
2012 Big East
FB (East): Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, USF, WVU
FB (West): Baylor, Cincinnati, ISU, Kansas, KSU, Louisville
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova
2013 Big 12
East: Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, UConn, USF, WVU
West: Baylor, Houston, ISU, Kansas, KSU, TCU
2014 Big 12
East: Cincinnati, ISU, UCF, UConn, USF, WVU
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, KSU, Navy (FB only), TCU
I wonder how C-USA would replace UCF and Houston. They haven't been raided as extensively as in our timeline, so there is less need to add as many schools as possible. Perhaps this decreased desperation would lead them to stay put at 10. I suppose they could add FAU and/or FIU to get back into Florida.
Any thoughts?
Regarding this scenario I explored earlier: Suppose after the Texoma 4 go to the Pac, it is the Big 12 remnant (Baylor, ISU, KU, KSU) that absorbs the Big East instead of vice versa. The difference may be semantic, since I don't think the football membership would have been much different, if at all, from the above. However, it would likely have resulted in an earlier separation of the Big East non-FB schools (in 2012 rather than 2013). Would that have caused schools like UConn to hesitate more about leaving behind their Big East basketball buddies?
Also, you might think that a rebuilding Big 12 would take schools from the MWC. However, with the Big East adds, the conference would be centered more in the central/eastern US, so I don't think this would have been likely.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2017 03:55 PM by Nerdlinger.)
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