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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-20-2017 05:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Adrian Gonzalez lookin like Wally Pipp? A-Gone with more elbow soreness, getting shut down again. Getting closer and closer to seeing Cody Bellinger as a semi-regular starter at 1B this year. Andre Ethier also doing his best to thin the outfield logjam with his back injury.

...aaand Puig with calf tightness!

gonzalez had to break down at some point
03-20-2017 10:49 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #42
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Bryce Harper has continued to have a really good spring for the Nats. In only 35 at bats, he's got 6 homers. what's interesting is going into the spring, he had only 10 homers in 245 at bats. Never more than 3 homers in any one spring. He's batted .314 this spring, despite having a babip of only .208. Normally folks don't care much about the spring- but I feel if anyone's spring would be considered important- it'd be Harper.

The 6 homers by the way are tied for the league lead with Pete O'Brien from the Royals.

looking at the pitching- Gio and Ross had decent springs so far. Strasburg had a bad start but is down to a 7.30 ERA(he was at 13.50 earlier). The pen looks pretty solid. Glover, Martin, Kelley all with sub 2 ERA's. Blanton, Grace, and Nathan all with 3.00 ERA's.

Feels like a pretty good spring for the Nats. Only one injured is Scherzer and don't think long term that's going to be all that serious.

1 thing that will be really interesting to watch will be how the guys who played in the WBC are coming back.
03-20-2017 11:45 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #43
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Gio has had a really nice career. Fangraphs has him as going 7 straight seasons with 2.9+ WAR and 24.4 in his career, with a good chance at over 30. Since leaving the A's, he's put up 18 WAR in 5 seasons with the Nats, which is good for 16th in that timeframe
03-21-2017 07:04 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Sounds like the Giants could lose Will Smith for a long time, with some kind of UCL injury. Nobody has said it's a tear, but it doesn't sound good. He was supposed to be the first lefty out of the pen, and someone who could pitch to both LHH and RHH. It's not the biggest blow in the world, but it does hurt
03-21-2017 02:21 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #45
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-21-2017 02:21 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Sounds like the Giants could lose Will Smith for a long time, with some kind of UCL injury. Nobody has said it's a tear, but it doesn't sound good. He was supposed to be the first lefty out of the pen, and someone who could pitch to both LHH and RHH. It's not the biggest blow in the world, but it does hurt

More than made up for by the new hire...
03-21-2017 02:51 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #46
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-21-2017 02:51 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-21-2017 02:21 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Sounds like the Giants could lose Will Smith for a long time, with some kind of UCL injury. Nobody has said it's a tear, but it doesn't sound good. He was supposed to be the first lefty out of the pen, and someone who could pitch to both LHH and RHH. It's not the biggest blow in the world, but it does hurt

More than made up for by the new hire...

well the point was for Melancon to make everyone better by moving each of them down an inning. Smith's replacement is likely to be Osich, who has great stuff, but no control. It just sucks because the pen was going to be a strength

Anyone else watching the WBC? As I've done before, I went to the round in Miami and it was a ton of fun. One of the reasons it was better than before was due to team Colombia and its fans. They came out in large numbers to support a team that fought like hell, despite having very few major league players. I hope the tournament helps make baseball more popular in Colombia and the Netherlands. I mean, the whole point is to make baseball into more of a global game. It'll take awhile, but I truly believe it'll happen. The tournament also needs more of the best players to commit. Imagine if Japan had a rotation of Otani, Darvish, Tanaka, Maeda, Iwakuma and Sugano (pitching tonight and looking quite good)? That rotation could easily go toe to toe with Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, etc. And Canada could've used Martin, Saunders, Taillon and Lawrie.
03-21-2017 09:06 PM
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Post: #47
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
1 guy who hasn't bounced back and you really have to wonder if he ever will is Matt Harvey...

4 starts this spring he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA. In the 4 starts he's given up at least 2 runs in all but 1 start(despite never going more than 4.1 innings).
03-23-2017 02:56 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #48
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-23-2017 02:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 guy who hasn't bounced back and you really have to wonder if he ever will is Matt Harvey...

4 starts this spring he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA. In the 4 starts he's given up at least 2 runs in all but 1 start(despite never going more than 4.1 innings).

it's a shame (not for you though), because he was so dominant. He's going to have to learn to pitch with a diminished fastball. Some can do it, some can't. Depends on the pitcher
03-24-2017 11:55 AM
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Post: #49
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-24-2017 11:55 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-23-2017 02:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 guy who hasn't bounced back and you really have to wonder if he ever will is Matt Harvey...

4 starts this spring he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA. In the 4 starts he's given up at least 2 runs in all but 1 start(despite never going more than 4.1 innings).

it's a shame (not for you though), because he was so dominant. He's going to have to learn to pitch with a diminished fastball. Some can do it, some can't. Depends on the pitcher

yeah it's a shame that you go back 18 months ago and the Nats had to contend with both a healthy Harvey and of course Jose Fernandez. now one is gone unfortunately and the other one may never be back to where he was.
03-24-2017 12:19 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #50
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-24-2017 12:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 11:55 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-23-2017 02:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 guy who hasn't bounced back and you really have to wonder if he ever will is Matt Harvey...

4 starts this spring he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA. In the 4 starts he's given up at least 2 runs in all but 1 start(despite never going more than 4.1 innings).

it's a shame (not for you though), because he was so dominant. He's going to have to learn to pitch with a diminished fastball. Some can do it, some can't. Depends on the pitcher

yeah it's a shame that you go back 18 months ago and the Nats had to contend with both a healthy Harvey and of course Jose Fernandez. now one is gone unfortunately and the other one may never be back to where he was.

i feel bad saying it (although since Fernandez essentially murdered two people, i don't feel as bad), but how many teams have gotten that kind of weird luck? Two Cy Young caliber pitchers in one division and now are no more. Pretty crazy
03-24-2017 01:02 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #51
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Go figure - Ryu is gonna be in the opening day rotation. McCarthy or Wood for the fifth spot but it's all but a lock that it'll be McCarthy since Wood has proven effective out of the pen. But that's NICE insurance to have. Not to mention Urias in extended spring training, ready to take a place in the rotation before mid season.

Just a few questions marks left. The only sigificant one is LF starter. Otherwise, backups in OF/IF/catcher, and a couple of relievers.

Where are y'all on opening day big questions?
03-27-2017 08:08 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #52
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-27-2017 08:08 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Go figure - Ryu is gonna be in the opening day rotation. McCarthy or Wood for the fifth spot but it's all but a lock that it'll be McCarthy since Wood has proven effective out of the pen. But that's NICE insurance to have. Not to mention Urias in extended spring training, ready to take a place in the rotation before mid season.

Just a few questions marks left. The only sigificant one is LF starter. Otherwise, backups in OF/IF/catcher, and a couple of relievers.

Where are y'all on opening day big questions?

I'd say fifth starter, but I'm pretty sure it's going to once again be Cain. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 15 times, I'm a f*cking idiot
03-27-2017 09:23 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #53
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-27-2017 09:23 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-27-2017 08:08 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Go figure - Ryu is gonna be in the opening day rotation. McCarthy or Wood for the fifth spot but it's all but a lock that it'll be McCarthy since Wood has proven effective out of the pen. But that's NICE insurance to have. Not to mention Urias in extended spring training, ready to take a place in the rotation before mid season.

Just a few questions marks left. The only sigificant one is LF starter. Otherwise, backups in OF/IF/catcher, and a couple of relievers.

Where are y'all on opening day big questions?

I'd say fifth starter, but I'm pretty sure it's going to once again be Cain. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 15 times, I'm a f*cking idiot

Holy crap - really?! What in his last two years makes him look serviceable in 2017? That said, it's interesting (surprising) to note that most of the projections have him in the 90ish IP range, with an ERA of around 4.50. I guess I'd take that, but that ERA is at least 1.1 better than the last two years. So... he's gonna be healthier?
03-27-2017 09:52 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #54
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-27-2017 09:52 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-27-2017 09:23 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-27-2017 08:08 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Go figure - Ryu is gonna be in the opening day rotation. McCarthy or Wood for the fifth spot but it's all but a lock that it'll be McCarthy since Wood has proven effective out of the pen. But that's NICE insurance to have. Not to mention Urias in extended spring training, ready to take a place in the rotation before mid season.

Just a few questions marks left. The only sigificant one is LF starter. Otherwise, backups in OF/IF/catcher, and a couple of relievers.

Where are y'all on opening day big questions?

I'd say fifth starter, but I'm pretty sure it's going to once again be Cain. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 15 times, I'm a f*cking idiot

Holy crap - really?! What in his last two years makes him look serviceable in 2017? That said, it's interesting (surprising) to note that most of the projections have him in the 90ish IP range, with an ERA of around 4.50. I guess I'd take that, but that ERA is at least 1.1 better than the last two years. So... he's gonna be healthier?

i mean, he's healthy right now. But I don't feel like that portends anything. The shame of it isn't so much that Cain gets the job, but rather no one else is a truly obvious replacement. Sure I think Ty Blach is a better pitcher, but it's hardly obvious. And Beede is a top 100 prospect who will open the season at AAA, but IMO he's not ready
03-28-2017 11:47 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #55
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Span has been playing well the last couple weeks. Against Arrieta so far today he has a HR, bunt single, SB and scored from second on a WP. Gotta say he looks sprightly. That said, I'm not holding my breath, just making a statement
03-28-2017 03:41 PM
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Post: #56
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.
03-28-2017 11:28 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #57
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-28-2017 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.

Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection
03-29-2017 08:57 AM
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Post: #58
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 08:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-28-2017 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.

Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection

I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.
03-29-2017 12:53 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #59
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 08:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-28-2017 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.

Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection

I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.

i think 35 is fair, but I wouldn't predict more than that. I mean the last 3 seasons were 24, 42 and 13. I don't think there's much of a pattern in that. In short, i wouldn't be surprised with anything between 30-40. I mean, his career ISOs are:
2012: .206
2013: .212
2014: .151
2015: .319
2016: .198

So basically you're predicting another .300+ season. I could certainly see it happening, but it's definitely bullish
03-29-2017 01:49 PM
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Post: #60
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
so Familia gets a 15 game suspension to start the season for the Mets in that domestic violence case.

Kind of interesting in that it's at a relatively speaking easy period of the schedule. 3 Braves, 3 Marlins, 3 @ Phils, 4 @ Marlins, and then 2 more with Philly. He'd have only 1 game back before a 3 game with the Nats. So 2 things. 1st off, if there's any rainouts, he could miss the Nats series or at least 1-2 games of it. But 2nd off, they might lose a game or 2 in the 15 games he is out that they wouldn't necessarily count on.
03-29-2017 02:20 PM
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