for Q1 2016.

http://informitv.com/2016/05/01/united-s...bscribers/

A saturated market for sure, but cord cutting still over rated. It will be interesting to watch future numbers.

Down goes all of that stupid crap writers in the media and message board worry cats have been posting the last few months.

Subscriber numbers are up from 4 years ago. This is likely the peak point and will level off some.

So if Comcast loses 100,000 subscribers but purchases a rival who has 200,000 subscribers does that mean Comcast gained 100,000 subscribers?

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

I mean, suckers gotta do something with their money.

(05-02-2016 09:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  So if Comcast loses 100,000 subscribers but purchases a rival who has 200,000 subscribers does that mean Comcast gained 100,000 subscribers?

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

Good point, Mark Twain.

(05-02-2016 09:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  So if Comcast loses 100,000 subscribers but purchases a rival who has 200,000 subscribers does that mean Comcast gained 100,000 subscribers?

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

100k is insignificant in the 78m subsciber world (# of subs for the top 6 providers).

.1% or so.

We are looking for significant trends. All I see is a saturated market that gains/loses in any given quarter based on other factors (new households, loss of a household, economy, better weather when people watch less tv). I don't see significant cord cutting (so far).

Click on the link at the bottom, they list all the providers accounting for 98m subscribers. Where is the cord cutting?

I have noticed that Comcast offer's have gotten better in the sense that their reasonable introductory rates are now locked in for 2 years, which makes it tempting to go back to Comcast after cutting the cord a year ago. Other services like Direct TV also offer to lock in prices for 2 years.

So this is a sign I believe that even though cable TV has slowed the bleeding, the days of continuous outrageous price increases are over. Customers have their limit they are willing to pay and if the pay tv folks try to push it past that limit, customers will bail.

Whether customers stick with cable TV or not, the price they will pay is not going to go up dramatically anymore.

As for me, I think I will stay on the sideline for now, so still not going back to cable tv. I am ok with OTA, Netflix, etc. But it is a constantly changing situation. Stay tuned.

(05-02-2016 10:13 AM)Topkat Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 09:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  So if Comcast loses 100,000 subscribers but purchases a rival who has 200,000 subscribers does that mean Comcast gained 100,000 subscribers?

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

100k is insignificant in the 78m subsciber world (# of subs for the top 6 providers).

.1% or so.

We are looking for significant trends. All I see is a saturated market that gains/loses in any given quarter based on other factors (new households, loss of a household, economy, better weather when people watch less tv). I don't see significant cord cutting (so far).

Click on the link at the bottom, they list all the providers accounting for 98m subscribers. Where is the cord cutting?

I made up those numbers... The cord cutters are real, or else I just know a buncha weirdos.

Cord cutting is taking various forms... for example, I just dropped cable and subscribed to SlingTV; I still get ESPN and ESPN2, but I no longer get the SEC Network.

One other thing to note is that more people are downgrading their packages these days, so while they count as subscribers, they are getting fewer channels.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/pay-tvs-new-...?mg=id-wsj

(05-02-2016 09:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  So if Comcast loses 100,000 subscribers but purchases a rival who has 200,000 subscribers does that mean Comcast gained 100,000 subscribers?

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

This is what's happening, yeah. Another example: DirecTV claims a gain in subscribers but it's really just AT&T pushing U-Verse subscribers to move to DirecTV.

(05-02-2016 12:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 09:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  So if Comcast loses 100,000 subscribers but purchases a rival who has 200,000 subscribers does that mean Comcast gained 100,000 subscribers?

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

This is what's happening, yeah. Another example: DirecTV claims a gain in subscribers but it's really just AT&T pushing U-Verse subscribers to move to DirecTV.

DirecTV and AT&T U-Verse are both listed in the top 6. Whatever comes out of one (U-Verse) gets added to the other (DTV). It's a net of zero for the Top 6 providers.

(05-02-2016 12:30 PM)Chappy Wrote:  I made up those numbers... The cord cutters are real, or else I just know a buncha weirdos.

The two points are not mutually exclusive.

Cord cutting is very real. It is also a very small segment. The question is will cord cutters stay cut? It's one thing to cut fresh out of college or with the expense of a new baby. But do they stay cut down the road.

Then you get bona fide weirdos like me who are cord plus. I buy from Direct TV but I tend to use Apple TV when I'm catching up on something from Showtime because the on demand interface from Direct is inferior to the Showtime app, I use Amazon Prime because I buy a lot of crap from them rather than go to the store, so I use the app on my TV to watch things on Amazon Prime, I use Apple TV to get EVEN MORE SPORTS, and I pay for Netflix because they have good programming.

(05-02-2016 12:45 PM)Chappy Wrote:  One other thing to note is that more people are downgrading their packages these days, so while they count as subscribers, they are getting fewer channels.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/pay-tvs-new-...?mg=id-wsj

This is true, enter Sling.

The fight is on now over data caps (whether a hard cap or speed cap)... as Sling, I believe, is gotten over the internet. Data caps are another area that will be interesting to watch.

Providers are moving slow on this trying not to kick up much resistance (and they have a powerful lobby). Last article I saw, I think Comcast was at about 10% (give or take) of their footprint with a monthly data cap.

(05-02-2016 01:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 12:30 PM)Chappy Wrote:  I made up those numbers... The cord cutters are real, or else I just know a buncha weirdos.

The two points are not mutually exclusive.

Cord cutting is very real. It is also a very small segment. The question is will cord cutters stay cut? It's one thing to cut fresh out of college or with the expense of a new baby. But do they stay cut down the road.

Then you get bona fide weirdos like me who are cord plus. I buy from Direct TV but I tend to use Apple TV when I'm catching up on something from Showtime because the on demand interface from Direct is inferior to the Showtime app, I use Amazon Prime because I buy a lot of crap from them rather than go to the store, so I use the app on my TV to watch things on Amazon Prime, I use Apple TV to get EVEN MORE SPORTS, and I pay for Netflix because they have good programming.

I cut the cord usually around Feb or March. But I reconnect every August just in time for football. I do this so my kids will get out of the house during the summer. I keep Netflix year around.

(05-02-2016 01:29 PM)Topkat Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 12:45 PM)Chappy Wrote:  One other thing to note is that more people are downgrading their packages these days, so while they count as subscribers, they are getting fewer channels.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/pay-tvs-new-...?mg=id-wsj

This is true, enter Sling.

The fight is on now over data caps (whether a hard cap or speed cap)... as Sling, I believe, is gotten over the internet. Data caps are another area that will be interesting to watch.

Providers are moving slow on this trying not to kick up much resistance (and they have a powerful lobby). Last article I saw, I think Comcast was at about 10% (give or take) of their footprint with a monthly data cap.

This is why we need to push for LiFi. (http://purelifi.com/ ) Then there really isn't an excuse for overcharging.

(05-02-2016 08:37 AM)Topkat Wrote:  for Q1 2016.

http://informitv.com/2016/05/01/united-s...bscribers/

A saturated market for sure, but cord cutting still over rated. It will be interesting to watch future numbers.

Some of the cable gains by TW and Charter where because of recent purchases of smaller/local cable companies.

Also the "price war" between most of the major carriers has lead to a lot of switching...as revenue per subscriber is still down for video only from 2-3 years ago. (Some have benefited from "bundling" with internet services).

DirecTV, TW and others are offering large discounts for 1-2 years for those that switch.

Then, considering how in the last 10 years the US Population has grown by almost 30 million people (324 Million today), the explosion of growth for the total video market has obviously come to almost a standing halt....which has only sped up the cannibalism between companies. (i.e. AT&T buying DirecTV, Charter buying Time Warner/Brighthouse, etc...).

(05-02-2016 12:39 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Cord cutting is taking various forms... for example, I just dropped cable and subscribed to SlingTV; I still get ESPN and ESPN2, but I no longer get the SEC Network.

For $5 more a month you get all of the ESPN channels and SECN.

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)goofus Wrote:  I have noticed that Comcast offer's have gotten better in the sense that their reasonable introductory rates are now locked in for 2 years, which makes it tempting to go back to Comcast after cutting the cord a year ago. Other services like Direct TV also offer to lock in prices for 2 years.

FTC charged DirecTV with illegal advertising last year in regards to their "2 year deal", where costs were only locked in for 1 year and prices jumped as high as $45 per month the 2nd year...even though consumers would have had to pay a $485 cancellation fee to get out of that deal.

Devil is in the details.

(05-03-2016 06:37 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 08:37 AM)Topkat Wrote:  for Q1 2016.

http://informitv.com/2016/05/01/united-s...bscribers/

A saturated market for sure, but cord cutting still over rated. It will be interesting to watch future numbers.

Some of the cable gains by TW and Charter where because of recent purchases of smaller/local cable companies.

Also the "price war" between most of the major carriers has lead to a lot of switching...as revenue per subscriber is still down for video only from 2-3 years ago. (Some have benefited from "bundling" with internet services).

DirecTV, TW and others are offering large discounts for 1-2 years for those that switch.

Then, considering how in the last 10 years the US Population has grown by almost 30 million people (324 Million today), the explosion of growth for the total video market has obviously come to almost a standing halt....which has only sped up the cannibalism between companies. (i.e. AT&T buying DirecTV, Charter buying Time Warner/Brighthouse, etc...).

I assume a portion of that 30 million are kids (who can't buy cable/sat); and a portion are households (meaning couples or family unit adults living together).

Taking those into account would probably drop that number under 10 million new households over the last 10 years. Not much growth there for any one company when you have 10-15 cable/telco/sat companies competing for their business.

It is a mature, saturated market.


The special deals that the companies give for 1 or 2 years have been around a long time. I could be wrong, but I believe they even have a term for it... churn.