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How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Printable Version

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How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - shizzle787 - 03-18-2018 10:36 AM

I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Kittonhead - 03-18-2018 10:40 AM

Do they really care about athletics out in PAC land or is it all about academics?

Many of those schools probably don't care so long as it remains a P5.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Sactowndog - 03-18-2018 11:09 AM

(03-18-2018 10:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.

AZ isn’t a big enough state to want both teams. The problem both the Big 12 and Pac12 have is too many schools from smaller population states.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going - Wedge - 03-18-2018 11:33 AM

It's just as likely as your prediction that San Diego State and UNLV will drop football, or your prediction that Boise State will join the Summit League and play football as an independent.

07-coffee3


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Pervis_Griffith - 03-18-2018 11:35 AM

(03-18-2018 11:09 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.

AZ isn’t a big enough state to want both teams. The problem both the Big 12 and Pac12 have is too many schools from smaller population states.


Are you kidding??

The Big XII would cream their pants if this was a realistic possibility.

And compared to other states in the Big XII, Arizona is plenty big enough.

The original post brings up an interesting scenario. I have no idea how realistic it is. But the PAC has been struggling with their TV network. And the flame out in the big dance this March isn't what they want either. Who knows if this is possible ... but I find it may be a bit of a long shot.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - bullet - 03-18-2018 11:36 AM

(03-18-2018 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  It's just as likely as your prediction that San Diego State and UNLV will drop football, or your prediction that Boise State will join the Summit League and play football as an independent.

07-coffee3

SDSU and UNLV dropping football isn't that far fetched. SDSU still has a stadium problem.

Its very feasible that the Arizona schools could move to the Big 12. But its more likely they consider the California connection of the Pac 12 too important to sever.


How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Jjoey52 - 03-18-2018 11:44 AM

SDSU will surely be dropping football as they only have an NFL type stadium to play in and are the only major school in that area. Ok.




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RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - quo vadis - 03-18-2018 11:48 AM

It's rather funny how in the past week or so, the Big 12 obsessives have gone from "when the Big 12 falls apart in 2025, where will all the schools go?"

To ... "when will Arizona and Arizona State leave the PAC for the Big 12"?

I can't keep the stories straight anymore. 07-coffee3


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - quo vadis - 03-18-2018 11:52 AM

(03-18-2018 11:09 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was thinking about this for a couple reasons: the Pac-12 has developed a trend of not being very good in basketball the last 8 years or so, and basketball is a big deal to Arizona; the Big 12 TV deal is better than that of the Pac-12; the Arizona schools would get better TV time slots for games; and Texas recruiting markets are better for football than those of California.

2 years ago I wouldn't have given this any thought, but now I start to wonder.


Also, would the Pac-10 even expand at that point? It would seem to be pointless.

AZ isn’t a big enough state to want both teams. The problem both the Big 12 and Pac12 have is too many schools from smaller population states.

No, Arizona and Arizona State are both regarded nationally as major-level athletic universities that would be welcome in any conference.

They are each above the average in brand value in every P5 conference save for arguably the B1G and SEC.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - arkstfan - 03-18-2018 12:03 PM

Big XII would welcome Arizona and Arizona State with open arms.

Just don't see a situation where either thinks that the Big XII is a better fit for who they are academically and athletically than the Pac-12.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Wedge - 03-18-2018 12:42 PM

(03-18-2018 11:44 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  SDSU will surely be dropping football as they only have an NFL type stadium to play in and are the only major school in that area. Ok.

Their supporters are pouring lots of money and 18 months of campaigning into a ballot measure that would allow SDSU to grab control of the entire 100-plus acres the current stadium sits on. All that so they can drop football? Mmmm hmmm.

And UNLV is going to drop football just as a brand new NFL stadium opens in Las Vegas, and leave their hated sister school in Reno as the only college football program in Nevada? Riiiiiiiiiight.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Attackcoog - 03-18-2018 12:59 PM

If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - quo vadis - 03-18-2018 01:36 PM

(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Attackcoog - 03-18-2018 01:39 PM

(03-18-2018 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.

Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's. The two schools need to bring almost 70 million in TV value just for the Big12 to break even on the addition (otherwise, there isnt any economic incentive to add schools). The Arizona schools curently have a combined media value of closer to 40 million. In order to actually create an incentive to add those two, they actually need to bring something like 85 million in value (and that only provides each current member ONE extra million each---much of which will be eaten up in travel costs). I dont see it---"P5" schools or not. If your adding a Cali school with an Zona school---now you have something.

If the Big12 can continue to get a media payout that is competitive with the other P5's---but only have to divide it (and their other revenue sources) 10 ways rather than 12 or 14 ways----there honestly isnt much economic incentive to add anyone.

My guess is the Big12 stands pat---unless UT and/or Oklahoma leave. I dont think UT will get a better deal elsewhere---and I think the B12 will give Oklahoma a similar sweetheart deal rather than have them leave. If those two DO depart---the dynamic changes significantly and its very unlikely the Arizona schools would be interested in coming on board very diminished B12.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12? - johnintx - 03-18-2018 01:53 PM

(03-18-2018 11:36 AM)bullet Wrote:  Its very feasible that the Arizona schools could move to the Big 12. But its more likely they consider the California connection of the Pac 12 too important to sever.

The Big 12 would love, love, love for the Arizona schools to come over. Those are major universities that would be assets to any conference. They would also provide stability and justification for the continued existence of the Big 12. For UA and ASU, there is money and recruiting potential in Texas.

However, barring an implosion of the Pac 12 (or more years in football/men's basketball like this one), the Arizona schools are simply too connected to California for them to leave the conference. California is too much of a source for students and a destination for alumni. The Arizona schools are fool's gold for the Big 12.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - bluesox - 03-18-2018 01:57 PM

About as likely as Cornell joins the big 10


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Fighting Muskie - 03-18-2018 02:01 PM

If you dumped the 22 members of the Big 12 and Pac 12 into a bag and pulled out the best 14 or 16 you'd have a pretty nice conference.

Each league is hampered in their efforts to generate revenue by the weaker members. If you had a conference of:

West: Wash, Ore, Cal, Stan, USC, UCLA, Ariz, Ariz St
East: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Okla St, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor

Now that's not a bad league


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Nerdlinger - 03-18-2018 02:35 PM

(03-18-2018 02:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you dumped the 22 members of the Big 12 and Pac 12 into a bag and pulled out the best 14 or 16 you'd have a pretty nice conference.

Each league is hampered in their efforts to generate revenue by the weaker members. If you had a conference of:

West: Wash, Ore, Cal, Stan, USC, UCLA, Ariz, Ariz St
East: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Okla St, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor

Now that's not a bad league

Trade Baylor for Utah and maybe you've got something there.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Pervis_Griffith - 03-18-2018 02:40 PM

(03-18-2018 01:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

Thing is, there's little evidence that the Big 12 has any such problem, as it schools are getting $34m from the conference this year.

And AZ and Arizona State aren't valuable because of state population, but because they are regarded nationally as "big time" schools.

E.g., people here in Baton Rouge don't follow Arizona or Arizona State, probably not 1 in 10 LSU fans could tell you who either of their football coaches are.

But if LSU scheduled either one for a football game, home or away, the reaction from the fan base would be along the lines of "oh, that's a pretty big game, a game against a prominent power from another P5 conference", and they would look forward to it. The AD would get credited with making a good "big time" OOC matchup, as opposed to a low-value throwaway matchup. Ditto if they played either in a bowl game.

In short, AZ and ASU have national respect as big time programs. No, not Alabama or USC level, but big time still.

That's the kind of status that both bring to any table.

Doesnt matter. The rules for adding P5's are the same as adding G5's. The two schools need to bring almost 70 million in TV value just for the Big12 to break even on the addition (otherwise, there isnt any economic incentive to add schools). The Arizona schools curently have a combined media value of closer to 40 million. In order to actually create an incentive to add those two, they actually need to bring something like 85 million in value (and that only provides each current member ONE extra million each---much of which will be eaten up in travel costs). I dont see it---"P5" schools or not. If your adding a Cali school with an Zona school---now you have something.

If the Big12 can continue to get a media payout that is competitive with the other P5's---but only have to divide it (and their other revenue sources) 10 ways rather than 12 or 14 ways----there honestly isnt much economic incentive to add anyone.

My guess is the Big12 stands pat---unless UT and/or Oklahoma leave. I dont think UT will get a better deal elsewhere---and I think the B12 will give Oklahoma a similar sweetheart deal rather than have them leave. If those two DO depart---the dynamic changes significantly and its very unlikely the Arizona schools would be interested in coming on board very diminished B12.


Wrong. It ISN'T the same for P5 and G5.

P5 schools --- fairly or not --- have the perception of being bigger than their G5 counterparts.

If the Big XII could lure 2 Power 5 programs in an expansion, suddenly they go from the weakest perceived P5 conference to one of the strongest.

Not only that, but in this example, when you snag the top 2 schools in a state and that state ranks 15th in population, and the other states in your conference footprint rank 2nd (Texas), 28th (Oklahoma), 30th (Iowa), 34th (Kansas) and 38th (west Virginia) ... you definitely create positive momentum for any kind of media contracts you are negotiating.


RE: How feasible is the Arizona schools going to the Big 12 when the TV contracts expire? - Huskies12 - 03-18-2018 02:41 PM

(03-18-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the issue with the Big12 is population within its footprint---does adding 2 schools from a state with less than 7 million people help that much. If you can add one Arizona school and say---Colorado---that might be a better option.

I mean yeah. The BIG added Nebraska(And you get what Kansas and South Dakota?), New Jersey and Maryland. The SEC added Missouri. Why Not?