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Villanova @ JMU Thread - Potomac - 10-08-2017 03:11 PM
I think we need a separate game discussion thread from the CGD thread.
FCS National Stats
Total Offense:
JMU - 4th, 517.4 ypg
VU - 67th, 352.2 ypg
Scoring Offense:
JMU - 5th, 41.8 ppg
VU - 41st, 29.2 ppg
Rushing Offense:
JMU - 7th, 289.8 ypg
VU - 55th, 153.2 ypg
Passing Offense:
JMU - 45th, 227.6 ypg
VU - 67th, 199 ypg
Total Defense:
JMU - 3rd, 231.2 ypg
VU - 14th, 283.8 ypg
Scoring Defense:
JMU - 3rd, 11.6 ppg
VU - 6th, 13.2 ppg
Rushing Defense:
VU - 2nd, 50 ypg
JMU - 14th, 89.4 ypg
Passing Defense:
JMU - 4th, 141.8 ypg
VU - 75th, 233.8 ypg
Turnovers:
JMU - +3, 12 gained 9 lost
VU - +2, 14 gained 12 lost
SOS Rating among FCS (Massey):
VU - 30th
JMU - 44th
My take: We appear to have a significant offense advantage compared to Villanova in all areas except a modestly better passing game. Big edge in the running game.
That's the problem though, VU has the 2nd best rushing defense in the nation but an atrocious 75th ranked pass D. We HAVE to exploit their back field. That is how we will win. Sharp and Marshall aren't going to be able to get going until we force them to back up their LBs and defend the entire field.
I expect them to try to stop the run and make us beat them with the pass. The exact same strategy Maine and Delaware just employed to modest success (except on the scoreboard).
What we do have is a better ranked defense in every area except for Rushing D. We also should shut down their rush and make them have to beat us with the pass with their back up QB in the game. Does anyone know if Bednarczyk is out for the season?
Bednarczyk is 85-121 on the season for an avg of 213.6 ypg passing in his first five games. 6 Pass TDs.
Schetelich (VU 2nd string QB) was 5-15 vs Towson, 59 yds 1 TD 3 Int.
vs Maine, he went 3-8, 61 yds 1 TD 1 Int
Overall in less than 2 full games (excluding early season mop up duty vs Lafeyette):
Schetelich 8-23, 120 yds 2 TD 4 Int
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Wear Purple - 10-08-2017 03:39 PM
The early weather look is...
...clear day (after a week of showers expected every day in God's Country), temps in upper 70's...temps in mid-to-upper 60's during CGD.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Dukester - 10-08-2017 03:42 PM
Like opponents
At JMU beats Maine 28-10
At VU beats Maine 31-0
Villanova @ JMU Thread - Jay M. Youix - 10-08-2017 04:19 PM
(10-08-2017 03:42 PM)Dukester Wrote: Like opponents
At JMU beats Maine 28-10
At VU beats Maine 31-0
yep, but some flukey s**t happened to Maine. maybe flukey is the wrong word. a 99 yard fumble return for a TD? come on. should have been 7-7, that made it 14-0. what about the blocked punt around midfield?
Maine turned it over SIX. FRIGGIN’. TIMES. as i said in the other thread, if we have 0 turnovers, it’s a slam dunk win. just don’t give them short fields and they have no shot against our D.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Bill - 10-08-2017 04:26 PM
Schor passes for 220+ Dukes 27-20
Villanova @ JMU Thread - Potomac - 10-08-2017 05:08 PM
(10-08-2017 04:26 PM)Bill Wrote: Schor passes for 220+ Dukes 27-20
If VU scores 20, they had a defensive or special teams score. Their offense looks mediocre and that’s before their back up qb had to come in.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - BDKJMU - 10-08-2017 05:25 PM
Obviously the biggest injury in the CAA so far was VU losing for the season to injury a couple of weeks ago CAA Pre season Defensive POTY/All American Safety Rob Rolle (has been mentioned on a couple of other threads):
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/villanova-s-rolle-to-miss-remainder-of-season-092817
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Dukes94 - 10-08-2017 05:29 PM
I think we win, but as has been noted, Nova handled Maine and we struggled. Still, as has also been noted, Nova played them at home, and had a defensive TD that you can't count on. It probably would've been a 17-7 (Nova) game at Maine.
I'm pretty sure Houston would sooner slam his own balls in a car door than lose this one. He's no Everett Withers, and Villanova is not that pretty good Richmond team from two years ago.
Villanova @ JMU Thread - JMUNewbill - 10-08-2017 05:38 PM
17-6 Dukes.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - BDKJMU - 10-08-2017 05:40 PM
According to the CAA '12 Teams in 12 Days' preview of VU, (Last season 9-4/6-2)
*Return 14 of 22 starters, 5 of 9 All CAA (at least 2 of those starters & 1 All CAA out for JMU).
http://www.caasports.com/news/2017/8/23/football-caafb-12-teams-in-12-days-preview-villanova.aspx
Offense returned 9 starters (but starting QB Zach Bednarczyk is out with an injury).
Key players lost:
-2nd team All CAA OT Brad Seaton (7th round pick Titans).
Key Players Returning:
-QB Zach Bednarczyk, 2015 CAA co-offensive rookie of the year (rJr), out for at least Maine and JMU games.
-3rd team All CAA RB Aaron Forbes (Jr).
-3rd team All CAA TE Ryan Bell (Sr).
Defense returned 6 starters, but lost Rob Rolle.
Key players lost:
-1st team All CAA, CAA Defensive Player of the Year, Consensus All American Tanoh Kpassagnon, 2nd round pick Chiefs.
-1st team All CAA LB Austin Calitro, currently Browns practice squad)
-3rd team All CAA DL Bryan Osei
-*1st team All CAA S Rob Rolle (Sr), pre season CAA Defensive POTY/All American, out for the season.
Key Players Returning
-3rd team All CAA LB Ed Shockley (Sr), pre season All CAA.
Special Teams
-Return 3rd team All CAA punter John Hinchen (Sr).
Schedule (Miss UNH, SBU, W&M)
W Lehigh 38-35
L @ Temple 13-16
W Lafayette 59-0
L @ Albany 19-10 (OT)
W @ TU 24-9
W Maine 31-0
10/14 @ JMU
10/21 Bye
10/28 Elon
11/4 UR
11/11 @ URI
11/18 UD
Villanova @ JMU Thread - Potomac - 10-08-2017 05:54 PM
BDK, where did you see bednarczyk is out vs JMU? All I could find is he was out for most of the TU game and Maine. He got an MRI last Monday but a quick google search didn’t return an article saying he was even out against Maine.
It’s a knee injury with an indefinite timeline from what I’ve seen.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - BDKJMU - 10-08-2017 06:22 PM
(10-08-2017 05:54 PM)Potomac Wrote: BDK, where did you see bednarczyk is out vs JMU? All I could find is he was out for most of the TU game and Maine. He got an MRI last Monday but a quick google search didn’t return an article saying he was even out against Maine.You don't need an article. Just look at the box score:
It’s a knee injury with an indefinite timeline from what I’ve seen.
http://www.villanova.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2017-2018/game6.html
Google sucks
"Villanova to start redshirt freshman quarterback against Maine
....Next week, they’re at No. 1 James Madison, followed by a bye. There’s a hope Bednarczyk could be back by the time they host No. 18 Elon (4-1, 2-0), the surprise of the league if not the nation so far, on Oct. 28.
For the time being, it’s in a new guy’s hands......."
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/villanova/villanova-football-maine-jack-schetelich-freshman-quarterback-20171005.html[/b]
Villanova @ JMU Thread - Potomac - 10-08-2017 06:42 PM
Thanks BDK, I didn’t find that article. VU’s back up QB it is. The article also said he was 5-5 vs Towson but espn box score shows 5-15. If he threw 3 int, obviously no way to go 5-5.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - jmufan2008 - 10-08-2017 07:16 PM
Without Rolle and Bednarczyk I don't see us losing this game...
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Harrisonburger - 10-08-2017 07:37 PM
Loks like all of their obviously loseable games left are at home. Yet another reason for them to be jacked coming in here. Hope it's moot because they just won't be able to move the ball on us, but they'll probably be mindful of the fact that if they can find some way to claw out a win, they may be in better shape moving forward than everyone else in the CAA, including us.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Potomac - 10-08-2017 07:50 PM
Trends I'm seeing. Outside of a truly terrible performance by Lafayette, it looks like most opponents of VU are getting 200 ypg passing against them minimum. Rob Rolle was in their back field for their first four of six games too.
VU opponents (12-21 combined record):
Lehigh (1-5) 38-35 W
Temple (3-3) 16-13 L
Lafayette (2-4) 59-0 W
Albany (3-3) 19-10 OT L
Towson (2-3) 24-9 W
Maine (1-3) 31-0 W
They have yet to play an FCS opponent with a current above .500 record.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - Hart Foundation - 10-08-2017 08:01 PM
Villanova has changed their head coach but it has been about as seemless a transition as possible. They still hang their hat on refusing to let you run with the 3-3 stack defense.
We'll see how hard-headed coach Houston is. We know he wants to run and be physical and that is what Villanova will be begging him to do as they bring more run defenders than JMU has blockers. The formula to beat Villanova is with quick short passes to the outside while their defenders are jammed inside. It works all day against their alignment.
300+ yards passing with a ton of YAC is the minimum expectation for this week. Completion percentage could be 80-90% if JMU sticks to the short stuff.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - HyperDuke - 10-08-2017 08:44 PM
Lol @ Hart pre-accusing Houston for being hard-headed for something that hasn't happened yet!
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - RVAdukes - 10-08-2017 08:45 PM
Agreed. If run game isn’t working on early downs it’s no need to keep banging into the line for two yards a tote. Just open up the passing game and get Schor and the receivers in rhythm.
RE: Villanova @ JMU Thread - jmufan2008 - 10-08-2017 08:52 PM
(10-08-2017 08:45 PM)RVAdukes Wrote: Agreed. If run game isn’t working on early downs it’s no need to keep banging into the line for two yards a tote. Just open up the passing game and get Schor and the receivers in rhythm.
Hopefully this is all we did over the bye week. Timing timing timing.