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+---- Thread: What are your final top 4 projections? (/thread-798476.html)
What are your final top 4 projections? - TrojanCampaign - 11-14-2016 02:38 PM
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Explanation.
-Alabama even with one loss will remain at the top spot.
-Ohio State will win the Big 10. And in the process they will give Michigan their second loss and hand Wisconsin their third loss.
-Clemson in my opinion will go into this week ranked third.
-Washington's is still in the running because the amazing season Colorado has had. The Pac-12 championship will very likely be between two top 10 teams assuming both teams win out. This will be enough to jump Louisville for the #4 spot in the final week.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - Frog in the Kitchen Sink - 11-14-2016 02:45 PM
I think the Big 10 gets two-
1. 13-0 Alabama
2. 12-1 Clemson
3. 11-2 Penn State
4. 11-1 Ohio State
I think even if Washington wins out, Ohio State makes it.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - stever20 - 11-14-2016 02:49 PM
(11-14-2016 02:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: 1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Explanation.
-Alabama even with one loss will remain at the top spot.
-Ohio State will win the Big 10. And in the process they will give Michigan their second loss and hand Wisconsin their third loss.
-Clemson in my opinion will go into this week ranked third.
-Washington's is still in the running because the amazing season Colorado has had. The Pac-12 championship will very likely be between two top 10 teams assuming both teams win out. This will be enough to jump Louisville for the #4 spot in the final week.
So who is Penn St going to lose to? Rutgers or Michigan St? Because they need that to have Ohio St win the Big Ten. That's the problem that Washington is going to have. Odds pretty good we're going to wind up with...
Alabama 13-0 SEC Champ
Clemson 12-1 ACC Champ
and either-
Michigan 12-1 Big Ten Champ
OR-
Wisconsin 11-2 Big Ten Champ/Penn St 11-2 Big Ten Champ
Ohio St 11-1
(remember, Ohio St/Michigan game is at OSU this year).
Which one of those scenarios will impact Washington quite a bit. The Wisconsin/Ohio St scenario is a real scary one for Washington.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - msm96wolf - 11-14-2016 02:58 PM
1. Alabama - 13-0
2. Mich - B10 Champ 12-1
3. Washington Pac 12 Champ 12-1
4. Clemson ACC Champ 12-1
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - stever20 - 11-14-2016 03:07 PM
if Washington gets in, they'll be #4. I think that's pretty clear. Alabama/Washington and Michigan/Clemson.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - TrojanCampaign - 11-14-2016 03:10 PM
(11-14-2016 02:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:(11-14-2016 02:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: 1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Explanation.
-Alabama even with one loss will remain at the top spot.
-Ohio State will win the Big 10. And in the process they will give Michigan their second loss and hand Wisconsin their third loss.
-Clemson in my opinion will go into this week ranked third.
-Washington's is still in the running because the amazing season Colorado has had. The Pac-12 championship will very likely be between two top 10 teams assuming both teams win out. This will be enough to jump Louisville for the #4 spot in the final week.
So who is Penn St going to lose to? Rutgers or Michigan St? Because they need that to have Ohio St win the Big Ten. That's the problem that Washington is going to have. Odds pretty good we're going to wind up with...
Alabama 13-0 SEC Champ
Clemson 12-1 ACC Champ
and either-
Michigan 12-1 Big Ten Champ
OR-
Wisconsin 11-2 Big Ten Champ/Penn St 11-2 Big Ten Champ
Ohio St 11-1
(remember, Ohio St/Michigan game is at OSU this year).
Which one of those scenarios will impact Washington quite a bit. The Wisconsin/Ohio St scenario is a real scary one for Washington.
I actually do not have Penn State losing to anyone. I think they will finish 10-2. They don't really factor into the top 4 at all in my opinion with that bad loss to Michigan.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - msm96wolf - 11-14-2016 03:12 PM
(11-14-2016 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote: if Washington gets in, they'll be #4. I think that's pretty clear. Alabama/Washington and Michigan/Clemson.
I can see that as well, I gave UW the judge because USC was ranked and Pitt was not.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - stever20 - 11-14-2016 03:14 PM
(11-14-2016 03:10 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:(11-14-2016 02:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:(11-14-2016 02:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: 1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Explanation.
-Alabama even with one loss will remain at the top spot.
-Ohio State will win the Big 10. And in the process they will give Michigan their second loss and hand Wisconsin their third loss.
-Clemson in my opinion will go into this week ranked third.
-Washington's is still in the running because the amazing season Colorado has had. The Pac-12 championship will very likely be between two top 10 teams assuming both teams win out. This will be enough to jump Louisville for the #4 spot in the final week.
So who is Penn St going to lose to? Rutgers or Michigan St? Because they need that to have Ohio St win the Big Ten. That's the problem that Washington is going to have. Odds pretty good we're going to wind up with...
Alabama 13-0 SEC Champ
Clemson 12-1 ACC Champ
and either-
Michigan 12-1 Big Ten Champ
OR-
Wisconsin 11-2 Big Ten Champ/Penn St 11-2 Big Ten Champ
Ohio St 11-1
(remember, Ohio St/Michigan game is at OSU this year).
Which one of those scenarios will impact Washington quite a bit. The Wisconsin/Ohio St scenario is a real scary one for Washington.
I actually do not have Penn State losing to anyone. I think they will finish 10-2. They don't really factor into the top 4 at all in my opinion with that bad loss to Michigan.
Ohio St can NOT be Big Ten Champion if Penn St wins out. Little thing called head to head. It would be Penn St/Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - TrojanCampaign - 11-14-2016 03:19 PM
(11-14-2016 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote: if Washington gets in, they'll be #4. I think that's pretty clear. Alabama/Washington and Michigan/Clemson.
I agree and it's not because Washington has a better schedule than many of the projected 2 loss teams like Penn State. I think it really depends on how Colorado does.
If Colorado wins out they are guaranteed to be ranked #10 or higher. By the Pac-12 championship games happen I project Washington ranked #5.
In this instance I think they would jump Louisville and take the #4 spot.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - stever20 - 11-14-2016 03:24 PM
Washington's worst case scenario would be
Penn St winning out
Ohio St beating Michigan
Louisville winning out
Clemson winning out
then we'd have-
Alabama 13-0, SEC champ
Clemson 12-1, ACC champ
Ohio St 11-1
Penn St 11-2, Big Ten champ
Louisville 11-1
can Washington with their putrid OOC schedule get in? And before you say it- Penn St's schedule isn't bad. Temple(possible AAC champ), and Pittsburgh OOC. 2 top 10 wins in conference play in Ohio St and Wisconsin in the CCG.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - GoldenWarrior11 - 11-14-2016 03:28 PM
I wonder if they would place Ohio State ahead of Penn State if both win out...
That would be an interesting topic for sure.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - Frog in the Kitchen Sink - 11-14-2016 03:32 PM
(11-14-2016 03:28 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: I wonder if they would place Ohio State ahead of Penn State if both win out...
That would be an interesting topic for sure.
I think they would put Penn State in front because of head to head.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - XLance - 11-14-2016 03:51 PM
Alabama
Clemson
Michigan
Louisville
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - Frog in the Kitchen Sink - 11-14-2016 03:54 PM
Just for perspective, here are the odds of winning out from ESPN FPI and 538:
Ordered based on 538 chances at playoff:
Alabama- 74%, 70%
Clemson- 74.7%, 70%
Ohio State- 50.8%, 50%
Louisville- 82.2%, 78%
Michigan- 33.6%, 32%
Washington- 36.5%, 32%
Wisconsin- 32.1%, 31%
Oklahoma- 40.2%, 39%
Penn St- 50.1%, 51%
Colorado- 18%, 19%
WVU- 27.6%, 27%
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - stever20 - 11-14-2016 04:02 PM
From FPI
Ohio St has a 53.3% chance of winning next 2 games.
Penn St has a 78.6% chance of winning next 2 games
Wisconsin has a 82.7% chance of winning their next 2 games.
So there's a 41.8% chance of Penn St at 10-2 and Ohio St at 11-1. 34.6% chance Big Ten winds up with Ohio St at 11-1 and title game with Penn St and Wisconsin. And that's a pretty conservative estimation IMO. Odds really high IMO that Penn St and Wisconsin win out.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - TrojanCampaign - 11-14-2016 04:26 PM
(11-14-2016 03:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:(11-14-2016 03:10 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:(11-14-2016 02:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:(11-14-2016 02:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: 1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Explanation.
-Alabama even with one loss will remain at the top spot.
-Ohio State will win the Big 10. And in the process they will give Michigan their second loss and hand Wisconsin their third loss.
-Clemson in my opinion will go into this week ranked third.
-Washington's is still in the running because the amazing season Colorado has had. The Pac-12 championship will very likely be between two top 10 teams assuming both teams win out. This will be enough to jump Louisville for the #4 spot in the final week.
So who is Penn St going to lose to? Rutgers or Michigan St? Because they need that to have Ohio St win the Big Ten. That's the problem that Washington is going to have. Odds pretty good we're going to wind up with...
Alabama 13-0 SEC Champ
Clemson 12-1 ACC Champ
and either-
Michigan 12-1 Big Ten Champ
OR-
Wisconsin 11-2 Big Ten Champ/Penn St 11-2 Big Ten Champ
Ohio St 11-1
(remember, Ohio St/Michigan game is at OSU this year).
Which one of those scenarios will impact Washington quite a bit. The Wisconsin/Ohio St scenario is a real scary one for Washington.
I actually do not have Penn State losing to anyone. I think they will finish 10-2. They don't really factor into the top 4 at all in my opinion with that bad loss to Michigan.
Ohio St can NOT be Big Ten Champion if Penn St wins out. Little thing called head to head. It would be Penn St/Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
Let's all hope it's Michigan then..
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - TrojanCampaign - 11-14-2016 04:46 PM
(11-14-2016 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: Washington's worst case scenario would be
Penn St winning out
Ohio St beating Michigan
Louisville winning out
Clemson winning out
then we'd have-
Alabama 13-0, SEC champ
Clemson 12-1, ACC champ
Ohio St 11-1
Penn St 11-2, Big Ten champ
Louisville 11-1
can Washington with their putrid OOC schedule get in? And before you say it- Penn St's schedule isn't bad. Temple(possible AAC champ), and Pittsburgh OOC. 2 top 10 wins in conference play in Ohio St and Wisconsin in the CCG.
I don't understand your agenda against the Pac-12. Washington's schedule is not the best in the world but it's far from putrid. If they go undefeated they will have wins over
7-3 Stanford who could easily finish 9-3
8-2 Colorado who could easily finish 10-2
8-2 Utah who will probably finish 9-3
8-2 Washington State who will probably finish 8-4
And they played a USC team who is playing as good as anyone in the country right now.
Sure California, Oregon, and Arizona are having down years but every conference has it's bad teams. Even the mighty SEC has 4 bad teams.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - stever20 - 11-14-2016 05:12 PM
I don't have anything against the Pac 12. I just don't think the individual team in question(Washington) is all that good.
If they finish the way you say...
Stanford- barely ranked
Colorado- about #10
Utah- about #15
Washington St- unranked
So looking at 2 maybe 3 ranked wins.
And their OOC schedule IS totally PUTRID.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - AubTiger16 - 11-14-2016 05:17 PM
I think that unless we move to 8 the top 4 conference champs should be in the playoff or a G5 team that beats some top P5 programs and goes undefeated.
RE: What are your final top 4 projections? - TrojanCampaign - 11-14-2016 05:24 PM
(11-14-2016 05:12 PM)stever20 Wrote: I don't have anything against the Pac 12. I just don't think the individual team in question(Washington) is all that good.
If they finish the way you say...
Stanford- barely ranked
Colorado- about #10
Utah- about #15
Washington St- unranked
So looking at 2 maybe 3 ranked wins.
And their OOC schedule IS totally PUTRID.
Is that really that much worse than any other team though? Where I'm getting off is many people make it seem like there is this HUGE difference in competition and Washington is playing a G5 schedule. That's simply just not true.
If you compare Washington with Penn State the difference is SOS is not that drastic. Once Washington finishes the regular season that is.