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OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - MinerInWisconsin - 07-22-2016 08:03 AM
And possibly one or two more.
I believe their tv money is 1.8 or 2.0 million per school per year right now. I do believe, and visiting AAC fans can correct me, that if one or more critical members leave, espn can renegotiate their deal. I would think that Cincy and UH are certainly on the critical list.
Will the contract take a modest hit? A big time hit? I don't know but I would think an adjustment would happen.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - Camfar Krej - 07-22-2016 08:25 AM
Yes, ESPN has a Group and Group B on the contract. If 2 members of Group A (Houston, Cincy, Temple and UCONN) leave then the contract can automatically be terminated if 1 member of Group A and 1 member of Group B (everybody else) leave, then the contract can be terminated. If two members of group B leave then the contract can be renegotiated. Then there's also the option of ESPN not choosing to do either and allowing the contract to remain the same.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - goodknightfl - 07-22-2016 08:38 AM
I don't know what will happen. I do believe any chance of a considerably bigger deal in 3 years will be dead. My personal guess with one loss, or 2, and Navy added to TV deal, AAC won't take a huge hit, but also won't get a real big raise. If AAC loses 3 or 4 I think They will do good to hang on to current $$, with a 500k to 1mil drop more likely. In the end it likely remains the top of G5, with 0 chance of some kind of tweener status.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - Realignment - 07-22-2016 12:42 PM
ESPN will continue the deal since it expires in 2019. The American will re-up with Rice to replace Houston and then has to figure out how they want to expand with Cincinnati gone because UMass will be available and but they could try to press and to get Air Force or Army to join as a Football-Only member.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - WKUYG - 07-22-2016 12:53 PM
I wonder how being in the same conference would affect the Army/Navy game at the end of the year. Yes I know the conference could still schedule it that way...and will. But does it hurt the game with both being in the same conference?
Also how does that work for the TV dollars made from that one game? I can't see Navy and Army wanting to split their biggest payday of the year with conference members
The way I see this is the AAC is going to be somewhere in the range of the MAC before this is over
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - goodknightfl - 07-23-2016 07:56 AM
Navy already is going to be folded into AAC deal. I think their TV deal has 1 or 2 years left. That is part of the reason the AAC would have gotten a decent bump in next TV deal. The B12 moved 2 years to soon for AAC.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - ESE84 - 07-23-2016 11:13 AM
(07-22-2016 12:42 PM)Realignment Wrote: ESPN will continue the deal since it expires in 2019. The American will re-up with Rice to replace Houston and then has to figure out how they want to expand with Cincinnati gone because UMass will be available and but they could try to press and to get Air Force or Army to join as a Football-Only member.
If you are right about Rice, there's a powerful academic core in Rice, Tulane, Navy, SMU, and Tulsa. Would that be attractive for Army, too?
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - WKUYG - 07-23-2016 11:24 AM
(07-23-2016 11:13 AM)ESE84 Wrote:(07-22-2016 12:42 PM)Realignment Wrote: ESPN will continue the deal since it expires in 2019. The American will re-up with Rice to replace Houston and then has to figure out how they want to expand with Cincinnati gone because UMass will be available and but they could try to press and to get Air Force or Army to join as a Football-Only member.
If you are right about Rice, there's a powerful academic core in Rice, Tulane, Navy, SMU, and Tulsa. Would that be attractive for Army, too?
Please take Army and Rice and UMASS. No disrespect to Rice but that would be great news to CUSA.
Not only would CUSA pass the AAC in basketball...quickly. Never really had a chance in hell with UCONN/CINCY/MEMPHIS in the AAC. Also CUSA Football would be knocking at the AAC doorstep
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - MinerInWisconsin - 07-23-2016 11:51 AM
(07-23-2016 11:24 AM)WKUYG Wrote:(07-23-2016 11:13 AM)ESE84 Wrote:(07-22-2016 12:42 PM)Realignment Wrote: ESPN will continue the deal since it expires in 2019. The American will re-up with Rice to replace Houston and then has to figure out how they want to expand with Cincinnati gone because UMass will be available and but they could try to press and to get Air Force or Army to join as a Football-Only member.
If you are right about Rice, there's a powerful academic core in Rice, Tulane, Navy, SMU, and Tulsa. Would that be attractive for Army, too?
Please take Army and Rice and UMASS. No disrespect to Rice but that would be great news to CUSA.
Not only would CUSA pass the AAC in basketball...quickly. Never really had a chance in hell with UCONN/CINCY/MEMPHIS in the AAC. Also CUSA Football would be knocking at the AAC doorstep
I would hate to lose Rice but they are definitely one of my favorites in C-USA and hope the best for them. Rice to the AAC and UTEP to the MWC would be great for those 2 schools and good for C-USA to get down to 12 schools.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - eaglebeaver - 07-23-2016 01:14 PM
(07-22-2016 12:42 PM)Realignment Wrote: ESPN will continue the deal since it expires in 2019. The American will re-up with Rice to replace Houston and then has to figure out how they want to expand with Cincinnati gone because UMass will be available and but they could try to press and to get Air Force or Army to join as a Football-Only member.
Did you not get your quota of Rice as a child? Jeeeeez
I think we already have an Academic Athletic Conference (the new AAC iffen some of you guys have your way)---it's called The Ivy League. Very smart and very slow...
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - Orange County Owl - 07-23-2016 08:04 PM
(07-22-2016 12:42 PM)Realignment Wrote: ESPN will continue the deal since it expires in 2019. The American will re-up with Rice to replace Houston and then has to figure out how they want to expand with Cincinnati gone because UMass will be available and but they could try to press and to get Air Force or Army to join as a Football-Only member.
Fight On!
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - MU ATO - 07-23-2016 08:51 PM
(07-22-2016 08:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote: I don't know what will happen. I do believe any chance of a considerably bigger deal in 3 years will be dead. My personal guess with one loss, or 2, and Navy added to TV deal, AAC won't take a huge hit, but also won't get a real big raise. If AAC loses 3 or 4 I think They will do good to hang on to current $$, with a 500k to 1mil drop more likely. In the end it likely remains the top of G5, with 0 chance of some kind of tweener status.
Top of G5.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - EagleX - 07-23-2016 09:09 PM
neat. we started a tv thread about the tv obsessed conference in our own forum.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - Kittonhead - 07-24-2016 10:28 AM
(07-23-2016 07:56 AM)goodknightfl Wrote: Navy already is going to be folded into AAC deal. I think their TV deal has 1 or 2 years left. That is part of the reason the AAC would have gotten a decent bump in next TV deal. The B12 moved 2 years to soon for AAC.
I think it does change the trajectory for AAC TV deal.
It may force the AAC to concede its no better than the MWC and go in on a coast 2 coast model for 3 million per school.
As much as the B12 has talked about FB Only as one of its options in its tool set I believe that the AAC could if they wanted take the same approach. For instance give Marshall a FB only if they didn't think they were worth the time in Olympic sports.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - goodknightfl - 07-25-2016 07:22 AM
I just don't see the coast to coast model happening. If AAC loses one, they add one. If 2 it stands pat with 10. If lose 3 or 4 They add 1 or 2 and get to 10. With current TV situation, I see no reason to go over 10.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - THUNDERStruck73 - 07-25-2016 08:12 AM
(07-25-2016 07:22 AM)goodknightfl Wrote: I just don't see the coast to coast model happening. If AAC loses one, they add one. If 2 it stands pat with 10. If lose 3 or 4 They add 1 or 2 and get to 10. With current TV situation, I see no reason to go over 10.
That's what I've said all along. If the AAC loses two, why in the name of Christmas would they add anyone?
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - monarx - 07-25-2016 08:57 AM
If they lose UH and Cincy the TV deal can be renegotiated. Not good for the AAC not just because of the 2 losses, but the timing. Their last deal was negotiated before the bottom fell out. They were looking at a drop next time anyway, even without the losses. My guess is the contract without those two, would be almost half of its current value. (which is still quadruple CUSAs TV value). If they lost all four I would guess their contract is 25% of current value.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - KNIGHTTIME - 07-25-2016 10:31 AM
(07-25-2016 08:57 AM)monarx Wrote: If they lose UH and Cincy the TV deal can be renegotiated. Not good for the AAC not just because of the 2 losses, but the timing. Their last deal was negotiated before the bottom fell out. They were looking at a drop next time anyway, even without the losses. My guess is the contract without those two, would be almost half of its current value. (which is still quadruple CUSAs TV value). If they lost all four I would guess their contract is 25% of current value.
We were actually set to get a big raise. Navy is joining the contract after 2018.
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - monarx - 07-25-2016 10:46 AM
(07-25-2016 10:31 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:(07-25-2016 08:57 AM)monarx Wrote: If they lose UH and Cincy the TV deal can be renegotiated. Not good for the AAC not just because of the 2 losses, but the timing. Their last deal was negotiated before the bottom fell out. They were looking at a drop next time anyway, even without the losses. My guess is the contract without those two, would be almost half of its current value. (which is still quadruple CUSAs TV value). If they lost all four I would guess their contract is 25% of current value.
We were actually set to get a big raise. Navy is joining the contract after 2018.
Oh. I didnt realize Navy wasn't included in the old contract. As long as it includes the Army/Navy game, then I would imagine you would see a slight bump. (under the old line up). I don't think Navy offsets the loss of UH and Cincy though. Outside of the A/N game, Navy football isn't even as popular as USF. Do you think there is any chance Navy would go back to being independent if the AAC loses 3 or 4?
RE: OT speculation: AAC tv deal, what happens if they lose UH and Cincy - msm96wolf - 07-25-2016 12:51 PM
(07-25-2016 10:46 AM)monarx Wrote:(07-25-2016 10:31 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:(07-25-2016 08:57 AM)monarx Wrote: If they lose UH and Cincy the TV deal can be renegotiated. Not good for the AAC not just because of the 2 losses, but the timing. Their last deal was negotiated before the bottom fell out. They were looking at a drop next time anyway, even without the losses. My guess is the contract without those two, would be almost half of its current value. (which is still quadruple CUSAs TV value). If they lost all four I would guess their contract is 25% of current value.
We were actually set to get a big raise. Navy is joining the contract after 2018.
Oh. I didnt realize Navy wasn't included in the old contract. As long as it includes the Army/Navy game, then I would imagine you would see a slight bump. (under the old line up). I don't think Navy offsets the loss of UH and Cincy though. Outside of the A/N game, Navy football isn't even as popular as USF. Do you think there is any chance Navy would go back to being independent if the AAC loses 3 or 4?
I agree the the AAC would stay at 10. However, it would not shock me if ESPN tries to renegotiates the deal to keep the team payout the same at 2 mil and extends the contract another 3-4 years. The question is Fox, NBC or CBS sports willing to pay the extra for the AAC after these defections? It will be hard to say the the loss of three of your best teams would not impact his bargaining power and in a buyer's market.