+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: MACbbs (/forum-513.html)
+---- Forum: Mid-American Conference Talk (/forum-472.html)
+---- Thread: How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school? (/thread-778177.html)
How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school? - Slinkin Street Flash - 04-20-2016 02:46 PM
So looking at how frequently MAC basketball players end up playing 4 years at a school -
I have data from 2003 to present. I counted up how many players were identified as freshmen each year, and how many ended up playing 4 seasons for the school.
The data is somewhat good, but it does miss a few details. Someone like Pat Forsythe, who played a little at West Virginia, then played 4 seasons at Akron looked like a freshmen at Akron in my data. Also, someone like Kellon Thomas, who played some in 2014-2015 before taking a medical redshirt, looks like he played 4 seasons at Kent, but has 1 more year of eligibility at IUPUI.
Also, someone like Derek Jackson, who played 2 years at CMU and 2 years at Kent State won't count as a 4-year player.
Looking at freshmen classes from 2003 through 2012, the MAC had 432 incoming freshmen, of which 191 of these played 4 seasons. That's 44% players who played 4 years. So 4 out of 9 freshmen stick around
Which schools have kept the most players 4 years? Just 3 schools graduated 50% of their recruits - Ohio at 19 of 30 for 63%, WMU at 23 of 36 for 64%, and Buffalo with 26 of 37 for 70%. If I included this year, it might be different for Buffalo and Ohio because of their coaching changes last year. Buffalo had all 5 of their 2007 freshmen play 4 seasons.
Schools that don't keep players around - and a lot of this has to do with coaching changes - Toledo just had 11 players play 4 years, out of 49 incoming freshmen, for 22%. This was capped by the incoming class of 2009 where they had 8 freshmen, where only 1 lasted 3 seasons. CMO kept 29% around, with 11 out of 38 recruits. Northern Illinois and Ball State had 13 4-year players out of 39 freshmen for this period.
It's hard to see a trend in the year-by-year data, as it seems to jump around. I don't know if you could say 'it ain't like it used to be' - 2003 at 46%, 2004 at 56%, 2005 at 35% 2006 at 48%, 2007 at 53%, 2008 at 44%, 2009 at 39%, 2010 at 52%, 2011 at 33%, 2012 at 38%
I would be curious to go back to the team rosters in the 80s and see what percentage stuck around back then. I don't have the time or the data now to look.
So for a coach, signing 4 freshmen every year probably isn't enough. On average, a MAC freshman recruit lasted 2.2 seasons. If you sign 5 freshmen a year, you can keep your roster full, but you'd be bottom-heavy with young players.
RE: How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school? - OUVan - 04-20-2016 03:32 PM
Interesting question. I'm guessing the number is going way down.
The 2011 Bobcats had 10 players on the roster that started and ended their four years at Ohio.
DJ Cooper
Reggie Keely
Ivo Baltic
Nick Kellogg
Tommy Freeman
Ricardo Johnson
TJ Hall
Devaughn Washington
Asown Sayles
David McKinley (walk-on)
I'd be surprised if too many teams have more than that.
RE: How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school? - Slinkin Street Flash - 04-21-2016 08:19 AM
(04-20-2016 03:32 PM)OUVan Wrote: Interesting question. I'm guessing the number is going way down.
The 2011 Bobcats had 10 players on the roster that started and ended their four years at Ohio.
DJ Cooper
Reggie Keely
Ivo Baltic
Nick Kellogg
Tommy Freeman
Ricardo Johnson
TJ Hall
Devaughn Washington
Asown Sayles
David McKinley (walk-on)
I'd be surprised if too many teams have more than that.
Sorry - Buffalo in 2008 had 14 - yes, that's more than the number of scholarships available, but we're talking players that had minutes played...
Player
Andrew Atman
Andy Robinson
Byron Mulkey
Calvin Betts
Christian Schmidt
Greg Gamble
Jawaan Alston
John Boyer
Kambi Laleye
Max Boudreau
Sean Smiley
Vadim Fedotov
RE: How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school? - OUVan - 04-21-2016 09:02 AM
(04-21-2016 08:19 AM)Slinkin Street Flash Wrote: Sorry - Buffalo in 2008 had 14 - yes, that's more than the number of scholarships available, but we're talking players that had minutes played...
Player
Andrew Atman
Andy Robinson
Byron Mulkey
Calvin Betts
Christian Schmidt
Greg Gamble
Jawaan Alston
John Boyer
Kambi Laleye
Max Boudreau
Sean Smiley
Vadim Fedotov
Wow, that's impressive. Who are the other two?
RE: How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school? - Slinkin Street Flash - 04-21-2016 10:44 AM
(04-21-2016 09:02 AM)OUVan Wrote:(04-21-2016 08:19 AM)Slinkin Street Flash Wrote: Sorry - Buffalo in 2008 had 14 - yes, that's more than the number of scholarships available, but we're talking players that had minutes played...
Player
Andrew Atman
Andy Robinson
Byron Mulkey
Calvin Betts
Christian Schmidt
Greg Gamble
Jawaan Alston
John Boyer
Kambi Laleye
Max Boudreau
Sean Smiley
Vadim Fedotov
Wow, that's impressive. Who are the other two?
Sorry - I messed up- it was Buffalo in 2007 - Remove Jawaan Alston, Add Darwin Young, Parnell Smith, and Yassin Idbihi