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Republican polls - bullet - 02-26-2016 08:18 PM
Looked at the Republican polls over the last two days on RCP.
10 states.
Trump leads 9 and is 2nd in Texas. He has a double digit lead everywhere but Pennsylvania.
Rubio is 2nd in 8 states and 3rd in Texas and Virginia
Cruz is 1st in Texas, 2nd in Virginia, a close 3rd in 6 states, a distant 3rd in Florida and 4th in Massachusetts.
Kasich is tied for 2nd in Massachusetts, tied for 3rd in Pennsylvania, 4th in 3 states, a virtual tie with Carson for 4th/5th in 4 others and 5th in Alabama.
In Wisconsin, Kasich is tied for last with Carson at 8%.
In Pennsylvania, Kasich is tied for 3rd with Cruz at 16% (Trump leads with 21%).
In Michigan, Kasich is 4th with 12% (T-41, R-17, C-14).
In Illinois, Kasich is tied for last with Carson at 9%.
Kasich really doesn't seem to have any strength anywhere south or west of Ohio, unlike his talk of doing well in the Midwest. He is tied for 2nd with Rubio at 19% in Massachusetts well behind Trump's 40%.
There is just nothing there for Kasich (or Carson). And everybody else is way behind.
RE: Republican polls - bullet - 02-26-2016 08:36 PM
Something to look at is how your state allocates delegates.
In Georgia, for instance, you have to get 20% of the statewide vote to get any delegates. In the polls, Trump is in the 30s while Rubio and Cruz are around 20%. Kasich and Carson are in single digits.
RE: Republican polls - Fort Bend Owl - 02-26-2016 08:43 PM
The writing is there for Kasich, and Carson (and probably Cruz too). But Kasich isn't burning up the money. If you look at his web site, he really doesn't even have that many activities planned. I think he'll drop out after Super Tuesday if he does a lot worse in Michigan than expected. Otherwise, he'll stay in through Ohio maybe. He got an endorsement today from a New Jersey Governor too - Whitman. But that one didn't get much news cause he got Trumped by another New Jersey endorsement.
RE: Republican polls - pharaoh0 - 02-26-2016 08:54 PM
(02-26-2016 08:36 PM)bullet Wrote: Something to look at is how your state allocates delegates.
In Georgia, for instance, you have to get 20% of the statewide vote to get any delegates. In the polls, Trump is in the 30s while Rubio and Cruz are around 20%. Kasich and Carson are in single digits.
There are five (I think) that allocate that way. And TX is a 2 and 1 model if no one gets more than 50%.