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+----- Thread: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings (/thread-743130.html)
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NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - MaddDawgz02 - 07-21-2015 03:01 AM
For composite rankings this is not so bad, although I'd expect NIU to drop a few more spots as more come in. What is interesting of all the computer rankings so far only 3 other teams in the nation have a larger spread or standard deviation than the Huskies. In other words, the computers do not know where to put NIU it seems like.
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Largest standard deviations:
1) Georgia Southern - ranked anywhere from 46 to 91
2) Memphis - ranked anywhere from 31 to 75
3) Iowa State - ranked anywhere from 72 to 117
4) Northern Illinois - ranked anywhere from 35 to 78
Rankings of NIU's opponents:
UNLV #121
Murray St --
Ohio State #1
Boston College #48 (pretty impressive computer rankings for BC)
CMU #92tie
BSU #92tie
Miami #122
EMU #127
Toledo #64
Buffalo #111
WMU #84
Ohio #96
Here are Massey's simulated results for NIU this year (keep in mind Massey's NIU ranking was the lowest of all the composites). Massey has NIU going 9-3 with losses @ Ohio State (46-17), @ Boston College (34-24), and @ Toledo (34-31). Two games with lowest probability of a win include @ Ohio State (3% chance) and @ Boston College (23% chance). Two games with best chances of an NIU victory include vs Murray State (98% chance) and vs EMU (94% chance). Couple of close calls predicted in wins though including vs WMU (33-28) and @ CMU (30-27). Overall no big surprises, I think these kind of results are what most expect this year. Given those fairly closewins, 8-4 is probably more realistic than 9-3 as you would have to expect at least one of the WMU and CMU games to go to the opposition.
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5634&s=279541
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - DogPoundNorth - 07-21-2015 07:04 AM
(07-21-2015 03:01 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: For composite rankings this is not so bad, although I'd expect NIU to drop a few more spots as more come in. What is interesting of all the computer rankings so far only 3 other teams in the nation have a larger spread or standard deviation than the Huskies. In other words, the computers do not know where to put NIU it seems like.
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Largest standard deviations:
1) Georgia Southern - ranked anywhere from 46 to 91
2) Memphis - ranked anywhere from 31 to 75
3) Iowa State - ranked anywhere from 72 to 117
4) Northern Illinois - ranked anywhere from 35 to 78
Rankings of NIU's opponents:
UNLV #121
Murray St --
Ohio State #1
Boston College #48 (pretty impressive computer rankings for BC)
CMU #92tie
BSU #92tie
Miami #122
EMU #127
Toledo #64
Buffalo #111
WMU #84
Ohio #96
Here are Massey's simulated results for NIU this year (keep in mind Massey's NIU ranking was the lowest of all the composites). Massey has NIU going 9-3 with losses @ Ohio State (46-17), @ Boston College (34-24), and @ Toledo (34-31). Two games with lowest probability of a win include @ Ohio State (3% chance) and @ Boston College (23% chance). Two games with best chances of an NIU victory include vs Murray State (98% chance) and vs EMU (94% chance). Couple of close calls predicted in wins though including vs WMU (33-28) and @ CMU (30-27). Overall no big surprises, I think these kind of results are what most expect this year. Given those fairly closewins, 8-4 is probably more realistic than 9-3 as you would have to expect at least one of the WMU and CMU games to go to the opposition.
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5634&s=279541
Thank you for the info. The only place I disagree with your assessment is where you say:
"Given those fairly closewins, 8-4 is probably more realistic than 9-3 as you would have to expect at least one of the WMU and CMU games to go to the opposition"
I'm at the point and NIU is at the point as a program (especially after last years championship which was a bit of a wild card because we really didn't know what type of team we would be), that I expect them to win every MAC game. Sure some games will be close, but NIU shouldn't and I never expect them to lose a MAC game.
But I think 55 is a very nice and surprising composite start.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - niusfactuary - 07-21-2015 08:02 AM
There's only 5 rankings in at the moment.
Last year's final rankings had 117 different systems involved.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - MaddDawgz02 - 08-04-2015 12:24 AM
(07-21-2015 08:02 AM)niusfactuary Wrote: There's only 5 rankings in at the moment.
Last year's final rankings had 117 different systems involved.
Up close to 20 ranking systems now on the composites and NIU is at 56. All and all, I think that's a pretty fair starting point when trying to think where NIU fits into the national landscape. One interesting thing is BC is only a few spots ahead of NIU now. Should be a great game at Chestnut Hill, with at least a shot at an NIU upset.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Big_Man - 08-04-2015 05:41 PM
Looking at those rankings really makes the MAC look terrible.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Stay Cool - 08-04-2015 06:26 PM
(08-04-2015 05:41 PM)Big_Man Wrote: Looking at those rankings really makes the MAC look terrible.#AACorBust
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - BearDownNIU - 08-04-2015 07:43 PM
I had a dream last night that we got off to a huge lead against OSU but ended up losing 56-49. I would definitely be fine with that result in real life
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - MaddDawgz02 - 08-04-2015 08:15 PM
(08-04-2015 06:26 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:(08-04-2015 05:41 PM)Big_Man Wrote: Looking at those rankings really makes the MAC look terrible.#AACorBust
#AAC=bust
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - The Frisky Biscuit - 08-04-2015 11:58 PM
(08-04-2015 07:43 PM)BearDownNIU Wrote: I had a dream last night that we got off to a huge lead against OSU but ended up losing 56-49. I would definitely be fine with that result in real life
My recent dream of that game only got to early in the second quarter, NIU trailed 7-3 in a game with many many turnovers.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Big_Man - 08-05-2015 08:09 AM
(08-04-2015 08:15 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:(08-04-2015 06:26 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:(08-04-2015 05:41 PM)Big_Man Wrote: Looking at those rankings really makes the MAC look terrible.#AACorBust
#AAC=bust
MAC = Suckfest since 1946
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - MaddDawgz02 - 08-17-2015 06:35 PM
Huskies drop to 56 as of today in the composites, and a part of that is because James England released his football rankings that have NIU an alarming #120, with 20 FCS teams ahead of the Huskies. So, in reality NIU is really ranked at 100. Pretty discouraging to see a ranking that low, but the credibility could be somewhat listed as he has the Buckeyes at number 9. Hard to believe there are 8 higher teams than the Bucks. Highest rated MAC team appears to be Toledo at 78
http://jameseng.land/Rank/ratings/current
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Stay Cool - 08-17-2015 06:54 PM
(08-17-2015 06:35 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Huskies drop to 56 as of today in the composites, and a part of that is because James England released his football rankings that have NIU an alarming #120, with 20 FCS teams ahead of the Huskies. So, in reality NIU is really ranked at 100. Pretty discouraging to see a ranking that low, but the credibility could be somewhat listed as he has the Buckeyes at number 9. Hard to believe there are 8 higher teams than the Bucks. Highest rated MAC team appears to be Toledo at 78What a shitshow ranking
http://jameseng.land/Rank/ratings/current
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - HuskieJ - 08-17-2015 07:22 PM
What a dork. Illinois State at 38. The guy has to be 1aa hack. Goodness.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Big_Man - 08-17-2015 07:27 PM
Why are FCS programs included in that list? To rate an FCS program at 38 is just silly. What is the point?
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - NIUHuskies86 - 08-18-2015 08:58 AM
(07-21-2015 03:01 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: For composite rankings this is not so bad, although I'd expect NIU to drop a few more spots as more come in. What is interesting of all the computer rankings so far only 3 other teams in the nation have a larger spread or standard deviation than the Huskies. In other words, the computers do not know where to put NIU it seems like.
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Largest standard deviations:
1) Georgia Southern - ranked anywhere from 46 to 91
2) Memphis - ranked anywhere from 31 to 75
3) Iowa State - ranked anywhere from 72 to 117
4) Northern Illinois - ranked anywhere from 35 to 78
Rankings of NIU's opponents:
UNLV #121
Murray St --
Ohio State #1
Boston College #48 (pretty impressive computer rankings for BC)
CMU #92tie
BSU #92tie
Miami #122
EMU #127
Toledo #64
Buffalo #111
WMU #84
Ohio #96
Here are Massey's simulated results for NIU this year (keep in mind Massey's NIU ranking was the lowest of all the composites). Massey has NIU going 9-3 with losses @ Ohio State (46-17), @ Boston College (34-24), and @ Toledo (34-31). Two games with lowest probability of a win include @ Ohio State (3% chance) and @ Boston College (23% chance). Two games with best chances of an NIU victory include vs Murray State (98% chance) and vs EMU (94% chance). Couple of close calls predicted in wins though including vs WMU (33-28) and @ CMU (30-27). Overall no big surprises, I think these kind of results are what most expect this year. Given those fairly closewins, 8-4 is probably more realistic than 9-3 as you would have to expect at least one of the WMU and CMU games to go to the opposition.
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5634&s=279541
Well, based on these rankings...
UNLV: W
Murray State: W
Ohio State: L
at Boston College: coin flip
at Central Michigan: W
Ball State: W
at Miami: W
EMU: W
at Toledo: coin flip
at Buffalo: W
WMU: W
Ohio: W
9-1 with 2 coin flips. Of course, preseason computer rankings are inexact and numbers will vary. I think their computers have WMU a little low, but the other numbers look about right. And we know at CMU is always difficult.
UNLV, MSU, BSU, at Miami, EMU, at Buffalo, and Ohio should all absolutely be wins. But, a bunch of teenagers and early 20s kids can be flaky. At any rate, I can't vigorously dispute any of the numbers I see here. The only one I dispute at all is the WMU ranking, actually.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - NIU007 - 08-18-2015 08:59 AM
What a joke.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Huskie_Jon - 08-18-2015 09:19 AM
(08-17-2015 06:35 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Huskies drop to 56 as of today in the composites, and a part of that is because James England released his football rankings that have NIU an alarming #120, with 20 FCS teams ahead of the Huskies. So, in reality NIU is really ranked at 100. Pretty discouraging to see a ranking that low, but the credibility could be somewhat listed as he has the Buckeyes at number 9. Hard to believe there are 8 higher teams than the Bucks. Highest rated MAC team appears to be Toledo at 78
http://jameseng.land/Rank/ratings/current
Ranked higher than the Huskies: BGSU-53, Toledo-78, Ohio-90, Akron-105, WMU-115.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - NIU8484 - 08-18-2015 09:24 AM
this England guy built some statistical model and whatever it pumped out is what were seeing, thus why FCS teams are ahead of Oklahoma and etc...just lazy nonsense
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - Dog Fan - 08-18-2015 09:26 AM
(08-17-2015 06:35 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: Huskies drop to 56 as of today in the composites, and a part of that is because James England released his football rankings that have NIU an alarming #120, with 20 FCS teams ahead of the Huskies. So, in reality NIU is really ranked at 100. Pretty discouraging to see a ranking that low, but the credibility could be somewhat listed as he has the Buckeyes at number 9. Hard to believe there are 8 higher teams than the Bucks. Highest rated MAC team appears to be Toledo at 78
http://jameseng.land/Rank/ratings/current
Who is James England?
Can we publish my 90-year-old neighbor's rankings? She knows nothing about football and doesn't speak much English, but I'm sure her rankings are valid.
RE: NIU #55 in Initial Massey Composite Rankings - UIHuskie - 08-18-2015 09:45 AM
(08-18-2015 09:24 AM)NIU8484 Wrote: this England guy built some statistical model and whatever it pumped out is what were seeing, thus why FCS teams are ahead of Oklahoma and etc...just lazy nonsense
It's not lazy nonsense, it's because there's no useful data before games start being played. These are all mathematical formulas that rely on game scores and other game-specific data points. No such data exists right now.
Discussing preseason computer ratings is a total waste of time.