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+---- Thread: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? (/thread-713568.html)
Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - Wedge - 11-18-2014 08:20 PM
The Committee is even less transparent about what they're doing than the BCS rankings were. The Committee is the human-committee equivalent of those BCS computer ratings that refused to release their formula for ranking teams.
This is just 12 people expressing pure opinions, and issuing a ranking that is supposed to represent their consensus, like a glorified AP poll.
I looked at the wins and losses of this week's Top 7. I don't really see any rationale from this to rank the teams in exactly this order, and The Committee is apparently never going to give us a rationale.
Here's the W/L list.
XW = excellent win = win over Top 25 team
GW = good win = win over unranked team with winning record
1 ALABAMA
Record vs. Top 25: 1-1
Record vs. teams with winning records: 4-1
XW #4 Miss St
GW WVU (6-4), Florida (5-4), TAMU (7-4), LSU (7-4)
L #8 Ole Miss
2 OREGON
Record vs. Top 25: 3-1
Record vs. teams with winning records: 4-1
XW #9 UCLA, #11 Mich St, #17 Utah
GW Washington (6-5)
L #15 Arizona
3 FLORIDA ST
Record vs. Top 25: 2-0
Record vs. teams with winning records: 5-0
XW #22 Clemson, #24 Louisville
GW NCSU (6-5), Notre Dame (7-3), Miami (6-4)
4 MISSISSIPPI ST
Record vs. Top 25: 1-1
Record vs. teams with winning records: 4-1
XW #14 Auburn
GW South Alabama (6-4), LSU (7-4), TAMU (7-4)
L #1 Alabama
5 TCU
Record vs. Top 25: 3-1
Record vs. teams with winning records: 4-1
XW #12 Kansas St, #21 Oklahoma, #25 Minnesota
GW WVU (6-4)
L #7 Baylor
6 OHIO ST
Record vs. Top 25: 1-0
Record vs. teams with winning records: 5-1
XW #11 Michigan St
GW Cincinnati (6-3), Maryland (6-4), Rutgers (6-4), Penn St (6-4)
L unranked Virginia Tech (5-5)
7 BAYLOR
Record vs. Top 25: 2-0
Record vs. teams with winning records: 3-0
XW #5 TCU, #21 Oklahoma
GW Texas (6-5)
L unranked West Virginia (6-4)
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - johnbragg - 11-18-2014 08:29 PM
The four-team playoff is an improvement over the 2-team BCS.
The Committee is a step backwards from the BCS formula.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - bullet - 11-18-2014 08:35 PM
(11-18-2014 08:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The four-team playoff is an improvement over the 2-team BCS.
The Committee is a step backwards from the BCS formula.
The committee is better than mindless computers and the biased coach's poll.
But its not transparent. They rely too much on the eyeball. Otherwise Mississippi St. should be #7 or #8.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - bullet - 11-18-2014 08:38 PM
Do Ole Miss and MSU trade places if Ole Miss beats MSU?
They really played into the joke-when SEC teams beat each other they just trade places (and maybe the loser gets a better spot than the one who beat them).
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - robertfoshizzle - 11-18-2014 08:40 PM
I liked the BCS formula -- a combination of computers and eyeballs is ideal IMO. Using computer rankings takes names and reputations out of the equation -- for instance, this year a win over Colorado State might be better than a win over Florida, but human voters don't always see it that way. The playoff is definitely an improvement though.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - Frog in the Kitchen Sink - 11-18-2014 09:17 PM
I definitely think the committee is better and that is from a fan that kinda got screwed this week. The reality is that 4-7 are really close and every one has an argument for the 4 spot.
These guys are looking at way more data and information that the AP and coaches do. Coaches have someone else fill out their votes and don't even watch games other than their own and the AP voters watch the games they cover plus Sportscenter. And the computers are blind to external circumstances ( injuries, weather, bad calls etc).
There are ways to improve it- make more of the key criteria known for one. But it is s huge improvement.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - HeartOfDixie - 11-18-2014 09:19 PM
People will always be unhappy no matter what we have. That said, the committee just makes this whole thing worse.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - RUScarlets - 11-18-2014 09:19 PM
Let's see what happens. I honestly think everyone is in desperate need for a blow out win. TCU versus UT. Baylor vs KSU. OSU vs Wisconsin. MSU vs Ole. These are going to be the eliminators. Whomever looks the most impressive will have the edge. The other games will count as well. Everyone needs comfortable victories to really put pressure on the committee, besides MSU who has the inside track.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - Kittonhead - 11-18-2014 09:34 PM
(11-18-2014 09:17 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: I definitely think the committee is better and that is from a fan that kinda got screwed this week. The reality is that 4-7 are really close and every one has an argument for the 4 spot.
These guys are looking at way more data and information that the AP and coaches do. Coaches have someone else fill out their votes and don't even watch games other than their own and the AP voters watch the games they cover plus Sportscenter. And the computers are blind to external circumstances ( injuries, weather, bad calls etc).
There are ways to improve it- make more of the key criteria known for one. But it is s huge improvement.
TCU's program would have never made its way back from the dead had the committee always been in place.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - Wedge - 11-18-2014 09:54 PM
(11-18-2014 08:35 PM)bullet Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The four-team playoff is an improvement over the 2-team BCS.
The Committee is a step backwards from the BCS formula.
The committee is better than mindless computers and the biased coach's poll.
But its not transparent. They rely too much on the eyeball. Otherwise Mississippi St. should be #7 or #8.
Considering that many coaches (most recently Art Briles) have admitted that they don't vote their own coaches' poll ballot but instead pass it off to someone on their staff, the coaches' poll isn't an improvement over anything.
I would be ok with computer rankings being part of the mix if the formula for each ranking was openly disclosed and could be duplicated and checked by anyone who wants to do so.
Agree that having 4 teams in is better than 2 but that they can and should do much better than having a committee of 12 insiders pick the playoff teams.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - bullet - 11-18-2014 09:59 PM
(11-18-2014 09:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:35 PM)bullet Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The four-team playoff is an improvement over the 2-team BCS.
The Committee is a step backwards from the BCS formula.
The committee is better than mindless computers and the biased coach's poll.
But its not transparent. They rely too much on the eyeball. Otherwise Mississippi St. should be #7 or #8.
Considering that many coaches (most recently Art Briles) have admitted that they don't vote their own coaches' poll ballot but instead pass it off to someone on their staff, the coaches' poll isn't an improvement over anything.
I would be ok with computer rankings being part of the mix if the formula for each ranking was openly disclosed and could be duplicated and checked by anyone who wants to do so.
Agree that having 4 teams in is better than 2 but that they can and should do much better than having a committee of 12 insiders pick the playoff teams.
Remember the time (2010) they had the wrong data in the final computer polls? It caused Boise to be #11 in the BCS when they should have been #10. It was just by chance one of the computer people discovered it after the final poll was released. All the computer polls had used the wrong data. In those days 10 vs. 11 didn't make a difference. It could now with the way bowls are done.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - bullet - 11-18-2014 10:03 PM
(11-18-2014 09:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:35 PM)bullet Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The four-team playoff is an improvement over the 2-team BCS.
The Committee is a step backwards from the BCS formula.
The committee is better than mindless computers and the biased coach's poll.
But its not transparent. They rely too much on the eyeball. Otherwise Mississippi St. should be #7 or #8.
Considering that many coaches (most recently Art Briles) have admitted that they don't vote their own coaches' poll ballot but instead pass it off to someone on their staff, the coaches' poll isn't an improvement over anything.
I would be ok with computer rankings being part of the mix if the formula for each ranking was openly disclosed and could be duplicated and checked by anyone who wants to do so.
Agree that having 4 teams in is better than 2 but that they can and should do much better than having a committee of 12 insiders pick the playoff teams.
The computer polls should only be a tool, not a measure. They really aren't valid statistically with the limited data. When you have 30 games or so like basketball, they are more meaningful. With 12, they really aren't.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - WakeForestRanger - 11-18-2014 10:40 PM
The committee is terrible.
Only way to make it fair is to go to an 8 team play off with automatic bids for the power conference champions. At that point, it is possible to play your way in to the play off and no one can screw you with whatever subjective bias they're using this week.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - wleakr - 11-18-2014 10:54 PM
(11-18-2014 10:40 PM)WakeForestRanger Wrote: The committee is terrible.
Only way to make it fair is to go to an 8 team play off with automatic bids for the power conference champions. At that point, it is possible to play your way in to the play off and no one can screw you with whatever subjective bias they're using this week.
Nah...that's no good either. I've keep reading that same suggestion, too (recently in USA today).
I'm all for expanding (8 or more), but there should not be ANY auto-bids for champions (P5 or G5). Doing so gives no incentive for a conference to schedule "tough" and, therefore, they just focus on being the best in their conference, instead of being the best period. When that happens, you can "plan" to slack. That's how we got those low ranking Big East and ACC teams in BCS bowls. When you know you're getting the bid regardless, you don't care how you compare to other conferences.
Just choose the top ranked 8 (or more teams).
Honestly, I think 4 is enough, cuz it's just the right amount to light a fire under your butt if you want to get considered for a title shot.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - WakeForestRanger - 11-18-2014 10:58 PM
(11-18-2014 10:54 PM)wleakr Wrote:(11-18-2014 10:40 PM)WakeForestRanger Wrote: The committee is terrible.
Only way to make it fair is to go to an 8 team play off with automatic bids for the power conference champions. At that point, it is possible to play your way in to the play off and no one can screw you with whatever subjective bias they're using this week.
Nah...that's no good either. I've keep reading that same suggestion, too (recently in USA today).
I'm all for expanding (8 or more), but there should not be ANY auto-bids for champions (P5 or G5). Doing so gives no incentive for a conference to schedule "tough" and, therefore, they just focus on being the best in their conference, instead of being the best period. When that happens, you can "plan" to slack. That's how we got those low ranking Big East and ACC teams in BCS bowls. When you know you're getting the bid regardless, you don't care how you compare to other conferences.
Just choose the top ranked 8 (or more teams).
Honestly, I think 4 is enough, cuz it's just the right amount to light a fire under your butt if you want to get considered for a title shot.
If you do that, it becomes subjective again. Settle it on the field by actually playing games. You don't play enough games in college football to overcome preconceived bias against certain schools and conferences.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - robertfoshizzle - 11-18-2014 11:28 PM
(11-18-2014 10:03 PM)bullet Wrote:(11-18-2014 09:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:35 PM)bullet Wrote:(11-18-2014 08:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The four-team playoff is an improvement over the 2-team BCS.
The Committee is a step backwards from the BCS formula.
The committee is better than mindless computers and the biased coach's poll.
But its not transparent. They rely too much on the eyeball. Otherwise Mississippi St. should be #7 or #8.
Considering that many coaches (most recently Art Briles) have admitted that they don't vote their own coaches' poll ballot but instead pass it off to someone on their staff, the coaches' poll isn't an improvement over anything.
I would be ok with computer rankings being part of the mix if the formula for each ranking was openly disclosed and could be duplicated and checked by anyone who wants to do so.
Agree that having 4 teams in is better than 2 but that they can and should do much better than having a committee of 12 insiders pick the playoff teams.
The computer polls should only be a tool, not a measure. They really aren't valid statistically with the limited data. When you have 30 games or so like basketball, they are more meaningful. With 12, they really aren't.
Good point. Computer rankings are only as valuable as the data they evaluate, and with limited data comes limited accuracy.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - robertfoshizzle - 11-18-2014 11:35 PM
(11-18-2014 10:54 PM)wleakr Wrote:(11-18-2014 10:40 PM)WakeForestRanger Wrote: The committee is terrible.
Only way to make it fair is to go to an 8 team play off with automatic bids for the power conference champions. At that point, it is possible to play your way in to the play off and no one can screw you with whatever subjective bias they're using this week.
Nah...that's no good either. I've keep reading that same suggestion, too (recently in USA today).
I'm all for expanding (8 or more), but there should not be ANY auto-bids for champions (P5 or G5). Doing so gives no incentive for a conference to schedule "tough" and, therefore, they just focus on being the best in their conference, instead of being the best period. When that happens, you can "plan" to slack. That's how we got those low ranking Big East and ACC teams in BCS bowls. When you know you're getting the bid regardless, you don't care how you compare to other conferences.
Just choose the top ranked 8 (or more teams).
Honestly, I think 4 is enough, cuz it's just the right amount to light a fire under your butt if you want to get considered for a title shot.
Even with auto bids, there is still incentive to schedule tough.
Let's say you're Oregon, and we go to an 8-team, auto bid playoff. This is hypothetical, and has nothing to do with how I feel about Oregon. Anyhow, knowing if they win the Pac 12 they are in, they decide to schedule San Jose State, Northern Arizona, and Texas State. They run through their schedule undefeated, but don't have to play USC, who also goes undefeated and beat Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
So now you have a 12-1 Oregon team who lost in the Pac 12 Championship and scheduled nobody out of conference. But you also have an 11-1 TCU, 12-1 Georgia, and 12-1 Ohio State who are in the same position -- except each played good teams out of conference. Unless the Pac 12 was the best conference in college football that season, Oregon would be left out of the playoff.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - robertfoshizzle - 11-18-2014 11:35 PM
Essentially, there would be no downside to scheduling tough if you are a P5 team. Even if you lose 2 games out of conference, you can still win your conference and get into the playoff. The scheduling argument makes no sense in relation to auto bids.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - jhawkmvp - 11-18-2014 11:38 PM
Too early to tell. However, the playoff is an improvement over the BCS.
RE: Is The Committee an improvement over the BCS rankings or AP poll? - USFRamenu - 11-18-2014 11:41 PM
How can the committee be an improvement when only the Paid5 programs are selected in their polls. At least in the BCS you had a chance of a Cinderella story. Now, you don't. The super secret selection committee whom we are supposed to all know and love do not have to show their ballots. They can chose to eliminate any and all non-Paid5 schools regardless of record or body of work. They can simply use the BS about body of work combined with strength of schedule. You'll note that all Paid5 Conferences get the benefit of doubt when it comes to "Strength of Schedule".
So this entire sham of a Playoff is exactly that, a Sham. It's BS and more of the rich getting richer.
