MBB: 2014-2015 Computer Ranking Projections Tracking Thread - GaStPanthers - 11-14-2014 08:15 AM
Folks,
As I did last season, I am starting a Men’s Basketball Computer Ranking Projections Tracking thread. (see: http://csnbbs.com/thread-659416.html) Unlike last season I didn’t have a chance to post the preseason projections as they were rolled out, so here are the preseason projections. Every few weeks or months during the season I’ll revisit this thread to track how the projections actually turn out.
Remember, these websites use computers for their projections based off of statistical data - and as any sports fan knows sometimes the computers don't account for the intangibles that make a team better or worse than expected. Then again, there are those who swear by the computers/stats - and believe at the end of the day the computer will be right.
This year I'm going to track from preseason to end of season are KenPom.com, RPIforecast.com, Sagarin and TeamRankings.com.
Some of the reasons I track these sites is because I like to see how OoC performance affect the conference standings projections and to see how actual results alter the preseason projected standing or placement of individual teams and the conference as a whole.
Again, I will not update this thread daily or weekly, but at certain benchmarks that I'll explain at the time of the update. Also, if you guys would like an update sooner, then ask me and I'll try to accommodate as my time in the real world permits.
So here goes.
Teams are sorted by projected conference standings first, then by the rating/ranking of that site.
First, KenPom.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Rating
GSU 16-4 24-7 66
UL 14-6 21-10 128
stAte 11-9 16-13 212
UALR 10-10 14-14 235
UTA 10-10 14-16 236
GS 9-11 15-14 263
Troy 9-11 14-15 296
ULM 8-12 14-16 287
TXST 8-12 13-16 290
USA 8-12 13-18 298
App. 6-14 8-21 313
http://kenpom.com/
Second, RPIforecast.com
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Forecasted RPI
GSU 15-5 20-10 98
UL 13-7 16-11 131
UTA 12-8 15-14 160
UALR 12-8 15-12 178
stAte 11-9 16-12 199
ULM 9-11 11-15 211
TXST 9-11 11-15 237
Troy 9-11 11-16 274
USA 8-12 11-18 259
GS 7-13 9-17 283
App. 6-14 8-21 298
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 22nd in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html
Third, TeamRankings.com
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Rating
GSU 17-3 24-7 ???
UL 14-6 20-10 ???
UALR 12-8 17-12 ???
UTA 12-8 16-13 ???
ULM 9-11 14-15 ???
stAte 9-11 13-16 ???
USA 8-12 12-19 ???
TXST 8-12 13-16 ???
GS 8-11 11-17 ???
Troy 7-13 10-19 ???
App. 6-14 8-21 ???
http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/2013-2014-college-basketball-preseason-projections
Fourth, Sagarin:
- 108 Georgia State (76.48)
- 158 Louisiana-Lafayette (73.75)
- 190 Ark.-Little Rock (71.38)
- 191 Texas-Arlington (71.38)
- 199 Arkansas State (70.97)
- 250 Louisiana-Monroe (67.93)
- 266 Texas State (67.11)
- 270 Troy (66.90)
- 275 South Alabama (66.62)
- 295 Georgia Southern (64.88)
- 316 Appalachian State (62.78)
RE: MBB: 2014-2015 Computer Ranking Projections Tracking Thread - asucrutch23 - 11-14-2014 08:46 AM
(11-14-2014 08:15 AM)GaStPanthers Wrote: Folks,
As I did last season, I am starting a Men’s Basketball Computer Ranking Projections Tracking thread. (see: http://csnbbs.com/thread-659416.html) Unlike last season I didn’t have a chance to post the preseason projections as they were rolled out, so here are the preseason projections. Every few weeks or months during the season I’ll revisit this thread to track how the projections actually turn out.
Remember, these websites use computers for their projections based off of statistical data - and as any sports fan knows sometimes the computers don't account for the intangibles that make a team better or worse than expected. Then again, there are those who swear by the computers/stats - and believe at the end of the day the computer will be right.
This year I'm going to track from preseason to end of season are KenPom.com, RPIforecast.com, Sagarin and TeamRankings.com.
Some of the reasons I track these sites is because I like to see how OoC performance affect the conference standings projections and to see how actual results alter the preseason projected standing or placement of individual teams and the conference as a whole.
Again, I will not update this thread daily or weekly, but at certain benchmarks that I'll explain at the time of the update. Also, if you guys would like an update sooner, then ask me and I'll try to accommodate as my time in the real world permits.
So here goes.
Teams are sorted by projected conference standings first, then by the rating/ranking of that site.
First, KenPom.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Rating
GSU 16-4 24-7 66
UL 14-6 21-10 128
stAte 11-9 16-13 212
UALR 10-10 14-14 235
UTA 10-10 14-16 236
GS 9-11 15-14 263
Troy 9-11 14-15 296
ULM 8-12 14-16 287
TXST 8-12 13-16 290
USA 8-12 13-18 298
App. 6-14 8-21 313
http://kenpom.com/
Second, RPIforecast.com
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Forecasted RPI
GSU 15-5 20-10 98
UL 13-7 16-11 131
UTA 12-8 15-14 160
UALR 12-8 15-12 178
stAte 11-9 16-12 199
ULM 9-11 11-15 211
TXST 9-11 11-15 237
Troy 9-11 11-16 274
USA 8-12 11-18 259
GS 7-13 9-17 283
App. 6-14 8-21 298
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 22nd in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html
Third, TeamRankings.com
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Rating
GSU 17-3 24-7 ???
UL 14-6 20-10 ???
UALR 12-8 17-12 ???
UTA 12-8 16-13 ???
ULM 9-11 14-15 ???
stAte 9-11 13-16 ???
USA 8-12 12-19 ???
TXST 8-12 13-16 ???
GS 8-11 11-17 ???
Troy 7-13 10-19 ???
App. 6-14 8-21 ???
http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/2013-2014-college-basketball-preseason-projections
Fourth, Sagarin:
- 108 Georgia State (76.48)
- 158 Louisiana-Lafayette (73.75)
- 190 Ark.-Little Rock (71.38)
- 191 Texas-Arlington (71.38)
- 199 Arkansas State (70.97)
- 250 Louisiana-Monroe (67.93)
- 266 Texas State (67.11)
- 270 Troy (66.90)
- 275 South Alabama (66.62)
- 295 Georgia Southern (64.88)
- 316 Appalachian State (62.78)
It's unanimous! We suck!
RE: MBB: 2014-2015 Computer Ranking Projections Tracking Thread - ga southern eagles - 11-14-2014 10:10 AM
It's unanimous! We suck!
I don't think GS will be near as bad as predicted this year. We will have a couple of guys on the court this year that were out last year. I hope the conference, as a whole, can exceed these expectations.
RE: MBB: 2014-2015 Computer Ranking Projections Tracking Thread - Vobserver - 11-14-2014 12:32 PM
The Cajuns will win at least 22 games. I am fully expecting them to win 25 or more. While we will not look like the team from last year because Elfrid is gone, we have solid replacements for him and are better at every other position, along with having better depth than last year. We may not win the conference, but if we don't, it will be because someone else got significantly better. The Cajuns will be much better in the paint [both scoring and on the boards], and will shoot the 3 better as well.
RE: MBB: 2014-2015 Computer Ranking Projections Tracking Thread - GaStPanthers - 12-02-2014 08:56 AM
End of November update:
Kenpom.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Rating
GSU 16-4 23-8 86
UL 13-7 20-11 142
GS 10-10 16-13 237
UALR 10-10 15-14 238
stAte 10-10 13-16 245
UTA 10-10 14-16 251
Troy 9-11 13-16 266
TXST 9-11 15-14 268
ULM 8-12 14-17 274
USA 8-12 13-18 282
App. 7-13 10-19 312
RPIforecast.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Forecasted RPI
GSU 15-5 20-10 91
GS 11-9 15-11 165
UL 11-9 15-13 190
UALR 10-10 15-13 197
TXST 10-10 12-14 204
USA 10-10 13-16 207
UTA 9-11 12-17 160
ULM 9-11 12-15 223
Troy 9-11 12-15 249
stAte 8-12 10-18 271
App. 6-14 9-20 283
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 20th in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html
TeamRankings.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec.
GSU 17-3 24-7
UL 12-8 19-12
GS 12-8 18-11
ULM 12-8 17-13
UTA 10-10 15-15
UALR 10-10 15-14
stAte 9-11 11-18
USA 8-12 13-18
TXST 8-12 14-15
Troy 7-13 10-19
App. 6-14 9-20
Sagarin:
- 109 Georgia State (76.43)
- 164 Georgia Southern (73.23)
- 192 Louisiana-Lafayette (71.21)
- 196 Texas State (70.81)
- 197 South Alabama (70.80)
- 215 Arkansas State (70.13)
- 218 Ark.-Little Rock (70.02)
- 239 Troy (68.24)
- 240 Louisiana-Monroe (68.92)
- 257 Texas-Arlington (68.05)
- 304 Appalachian State (64.56)
RE: MBB: 2014-2015 Computer Ranking Projections Tracking Thread - GaStPanthers - 12-15-2014 08:36 AM
Conference play starts in about two weeks. Time for an update:
Georgia State strengthens lead on top; UTA rises; Georgia Southern holding steady in the upper half; Arkansas State sinking
Kenpom.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Rating
GSU 17-3 24-7 61
UL 13-7 19-12 144
UTA 11-9 17-13 192
GS 10-10 16-13 230
UALR 9-11 14-15 251
stAte 9-11 12-17 259
Troy 9-11 14-15 262
ULM 9-11 15-16 265
TXST 9-11 15-14 268
USA 8-12 12-19 281
App. 6-14 9-20 310
RPIforecast.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec. Forecasted RPI
GSU 16-4 22-8 54
GS 12-8 15-11 158
UTA 11-9 16-13 141
UL 11-9 15-13 191
ULM 10-10 12-15 209
TXST 9-11 12-14 194
USA 9-11 11-18 242
Troy 9-11 12-15 255
UALR 8-12 12-16 248
stAte 8-12 10-18 272
App. 7-13 10-19 263
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 18th in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html
TeamRankings.com:
Code:
Team Conf. Rec. Ov. Rec.
GSU 17-3 25-6
UL 13-7 20-11
UTA 12-8 18-12
ULM 11-9 18-13
GS 11-9 16-12
UALR 9-11 13-16
TXST 9-11 15-14
stAte 8-12 11-19
USA 7-13 11-20
Troy 7-13 12-18
App. 6-14 9-20
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/
Sagarin:
- 58 Georgia State (81.23)
- 162 Texas-Arlington (73.75)
- 169 Georgia Southern (73.34)
- 193 Louisiana-Lafayette (71.77)
- 204 Texas State (71.02)
- 228 Louisiana-Monroe (69.95)
- 257 Ark.-Little Rock (68.18)
- 259 Troy (68.12)
- 275 Arkansas State (67.27)
- 277 South Alabama (67.16)
- 281 Appalachian State (67.01)
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