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Realistic Playoff Chances - Oldduke - 10-18-2014 07:40 PM
OK, so it's our Bye week and we were able to sit back and let others do damage to their playoff chances. Specifically, Towson beating UD gives UD their overall 3rd loss. Nova beating W&M (at W&M) gives the Tribe their 3rd overall loss.
For the purpose of this analysis, I am going to assume (1) Nova and UNH are locks for the playoffs and (2) whichever CAA team(s) end up with no more than 3 losses (overall) will get serious playoff consideration.
So, first and foremost, JMU obviously needs to run the table and not lose any more games. A tall task, but it is doable. The Dukes must end up no worse than 8-3.
We can eliminate Towson, Maine, Elon, URI and Stony Brook right now from any playoff consideration since they all have 4 or more losses now.
RU is currently 5-2 and still has Nova, JMU and at W&M. To get to 4 losses, they must lose 2 of the 3 with the big one (for us) being the game vs. JMU.
UD is currently 4-3 and hold the head-to-head tie breaker over JMU, but must still play at W&M, at UNH and Nova. One loss of those 3 and they are at 4 losses.
UAlbany is currently 5-2 with games at UNH and Nova. UA would need to lose both of those to get to 4 losses. The good news here is that JMU has the head-to-head advantage over UA.
W&M is currently 4-3 and the only game that really matters for us will be Nov. 1 when the Tribe comes to Bridgeforth. Obviously, the Dukes must prevail in that game to not only not lose game #4, but to give the Tribe their loss #4.
All of the above assume no major upsets to any of these contenders, which of course, is almost a given that there will be one more such upset(s).
I feel like UD has the toughest schedule remaining and has the least amount of margin for error. RU's road is not easy either, but have two of those big 3 games at home. Their last game at W&M may end up being a play-in game to the playoffs for those two.
UAlbany may afford to lose to either UNH or Nova, but both of those are away games for UA. Us beating UA may become as big as us losing to UD in the final analysis.
W&M needs to run the table and if they beat the Dukes on Nov. 1, they may be primed to do just that.
Of course, all this is meaningless to us if we lay an egg next week at Charlotte.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - Oldduke - 10-18-2014 07:57 PM
And looking outside the CAA, some lower-level top 25 teams lost this week ...
#13 Eastern Kentucky (6-1)
#14 Southern Illinois (5-3)
#20 No. Iowa (3-4)
#22 Indiana St (4-3)
#23 Charleston Southern (5-2)
#24 Sam Houston St (3-4)
And others Receiving Votes (ahead of JMU last week) lost ...
Tenn. St. (4-4)
S.E. Missouri St. (4-4)
Samford (3-3)
Western Illinois (3-5)
Furman (2-5) ... how in the world were they receiving more votes than us anyway?
probably others, but that's all I know of now.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - Rock House Duke - 10-18-2014 08:12 PM
Oldduke,
We play 12 games this year not 11. 9-3 definitely gets us into the playoffs and if we lose another game it is possible 8-4 might get us in but I personally think that is that doubtful because the CAA is down this year as a whole.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - DoubleDDuke - 10-18-2014 08:31 PM
I'm pretty confident that we're going to play well at Charlotte and we should beat them. It's ridiculous that Marlowe can't play the first half but don't get me started on that. If we can't beat them, a playoff entry wouldn't do much except maybe be a first big check mark on the Withers regime because we wouldn't go far anyway.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - Oldduke - 10-18-2014 09:03 PM
(10-18-2014 08:12 PM)Rock House Duke Wrote: Oldduke,
We play 12 games this year not 11. 9-3 definitely gets us into the playoffs and if we lose another game it is possible 8-4 might get us in but I personally think that is that doubtful because the CAA is down this year as a whole.
Rock,
Thanks for the correction, but I think the number of losses is the critical number, but you are right. There will be too many other teams at 8-4 with better overall resumes for us to get in at 8-4. Even though one of our losses is to FBS Maryland, many other teams have similar losses on their schedule.
And, I do agree that the CAA's reputation as the "SEC of the FCS" is not what it once was and I won't be surprised if UNH and Nova get in and then only one other CAA team this year.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - DoubleDDuke - 10-18-2014 09:50 PM
There's a 24 team field. Excluding the Maryland game, if we go 8-3, we're in absolute lock.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - All Dukes_All Day - 10-18-2014 10:05 PM
(10-18-2014 09:50 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: There's a 24 team field. Excluding the Maryland game, if we go 8-3, we're in absolute lock.
Agreed...win 8 and we're in. Will we win 8? That remains a different question for a different thread.
Realistic Playoff Chances - JMU_Newbill - 10-18-2014 10:13 PM
I don't think we're a lock at 8, it definitely could hinge on how other conferences shake out.
Realistic Playoff Chances - JMU_Newbill - 10-18-2014 10:13 PM
I think we're likely at 8, but not a lock
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - Bill - 10-18-2014 10:34 PM
All I know is if they win out, they're in!
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - Oldduke - 10-18-2014 10:40 PM
(10-18-2014 10:34 PM)Bill Wrote: All I know is if they win out, they're in!
Yes ... If we had not lost the UD game, a loss to W&M or RU would not be as devastating to our playoff chances. It's not just how many losses you have, but who you lose to.
The UD loss will be viewed as a "bad loss" at year 's end.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - BDKJMU - 10-18-2014 10:41 PM
(10-18-2014 09:03 PM)Oldduke Wrote:(10-18-2014 08:12 PM)Rock House Duke Wrote: Oldduke,
We play 12 games this year not 11. 9-3 definitely gets us into the playoffs and if we lose another game it is possible 8-4 might get us in but I personally think that is that doubtful because the CAA is down this year as a whole.
Rock,
Thanks for the correction, but I think the number of losses is the critical number, but you are right. There will be too many other teams at 8-4 with better overall resumes for us to get in at 8-4. Even though one of our losses is to FBS Maryland, many other teams have similar losses on their schedule.
And, I do agree that the CAA's reputation as the "SEC of the FCS" is not what it once was and I won't be surprised if UNH and Nova get in and then only one other CAA team this year.
Last year the CAA only got 3 in, but no CAA snubbed. The NCAA had to resort to taking:
-3 Southland (1st time ever).
-3 OVC (1st time ever, their league before last season hadn’t won a playoff game this century).
-2 Patriot, including 5-6 Lafayette due to 11-1 Fordham being ineligible for Patriot AQ,
-2 MEAC.
Forget looking at the polls. Look at team's records and their opponents records. There are a lot of teams out there with .500 and above records with 1 and even 2 Div II games. This year:
-It looks like the Southland will get 2
-The OVC won't be getting more than 2.
-The Patriot will only get 1.
-The MEAC will only get 1.
-The Big Sky might get 3 (as opposed to 4 last yr)
-The So Con might only get 1 (as opposed to 2 last yr). Their scheduling is a MESS. Their op teams are playing 2 Div II and/or 2 I-A, several with I-A games left.
That's 4-6 more spots for the other conferences that weren't there last year. Where are they going to come from? The MVFC will likely get a 4th, and the Big South a 2nd. That's still 2-4 more spots. That's still 2-4 more spots. IF the MVFC gets a 5th (they still have a lot of beating up on each other to do) that's still 1-3 more spots. 1 of those will be a 4th CAA if their is one available at 8-4/5-3. Heck, there's even scenarios if things broke right where the CAA could get 5.
Bottom line is for a 24 team field there won't be 13 At large after the 11 AQ with 8 Div I wins. If JMU wins 6 of their last 7 to go 8-4/5-3, they're going to get in.
Just worry about JMU winning 8 games..
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - BDKJMU - 10-18-2014 10:48 PM
(10-18-2014 09:50 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: There's a 24 team field. Excluding the Maryland game, if we go 8-3, we're in absolute lock.
Yeah, you said it a lot more succinctly than I did. I worry about JMU winning 8 games. I have ZERO worry about JMU getting in with 8 wins.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - Longhorn - 10-18-2014 11:38 PM
(10-18-2014 10:13 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote: I think we're likely at 8, but not a lock
Balony. Win 8, JMU is in. The jury is out, however, that JMU can win 8.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - DoubleDDuke - 10-18-2014 11:43 PM
I might crap myself next week but I think this team is evolving. And, if so. we kick the hell out of Charlotte next week (look at that CUSA) and forge ahead. If FCS wants to even survive on TV, you put teams like JMU in. The positive thing I've seen is that we're improving week to week. The other thing is it's not in all aspects of the game. We have to complete it and come out and take a crap on Chancellorsville.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - BDKJMU - 10-19-2014 01:57 AM
(10-18-2014 11:43 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: I might crap myself next week but I think this team is evolving. And, if so. we kick the hell out of Charlotte next week (look at that CUSA) and forge ahead. If FCS wants to even survive on TV, you put teams like JMU in. The positive thing I've seen is that we're improving week to week. The other thing is it's not in all aspects of the game. We have to complete it and come out and take a crap on Chancellorsville.
Huh?
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - BleedingPurple - 10-19-2014 06:39 AM
(10-19-2014 01:57 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:(10-18-2014 11:43 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: I might crap myself next week but I think this team is evolving. And, if so. we kick the hell out of Charlotte next week (look at that CUSA) and forge ahead. If FCS wants to even survive on TV, you put teams like JMU in. The positive thing I've seen is that we're improving week to week. The other thing is it's not in all aspects of the game. We have to complete it and come out and take a crap on Chancellorsville.
Huh?
Lost me.
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances - DoubleDDuke - 10-19-2014 09:36 AM
(10-19-2014 06:39 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:(10-19-2014 01:57 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:(10-18-2014 11:43 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: I might crap myself next week but I think this team is evolving. And, if so. we kick the hell out of Charlotte next week (look at that CUSA) and forge ahead. If FCS wants to even survive on TV, you put teams like JMU in. The positive thing I've seen is that we're improving week to week. The other thing is it's not in all aspects of the game. We have to complete it and come out and take a crap on Chancellorsville.
Huh?
Lost me.
Lost myself. I think I had too much to drink and didn't even read my post and google chrome word correct went with that or something. I do believe what I stated though. I think we'll get a W at Charlotte. I don't know how to make any assessment until we see that game but IF we get to 8-4 (8-3 FCS) we'll be in the playoffs. What was the famous line? Book it? It is frustrating because we were leading Villanova in the 4th quarter and we all know we should have won the UD game. But, if we can beat Richmond and W&M, we'll have a plenty good enough resume' for a 24 team field.
Realistic Playoff Chances - jmusuperfan - 10-19-2014 09:48 AM
We need to go one week at a time
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Realistic Playoff Chances - jmusuperfan - 10-19-2014 09:49 AM
We are only 1 game above 500. A long way to go
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