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Problems with the 7-home-game model - Printable Version

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Problems with the 7-home-game model - Hokie Mark - 07-27-2014 10:22 PM

This is from an article about the LSU Tigers:
Quote:...with LSU football season just a month away, tickets remain for six of the Tigers' seven home games in the 2014 season. ...The only LSU game sold out for 2014 is Alabama on Nov. 8.

Quote:There have been attendance decreases at LSU home games the last two years. Even after the 2011 season, in which the Tigers went 13-0 and reached the BCS national championship game, attendance dropped from 92,868 a game that year to 92,626 in 2012. The average per-game attendance dropped again last year from 92,626 to 91,418.

Quote:...those are paid attendance figures. The actual attendance at the UAB, Kent State and Furman games last year were actually much less, and by the third and fourth quarters, the attendances were a fraction of the announced figures.

Quote:Considering the cupcakes on the 2014 schedule, get ready for a lot more no-shows and no-stays against Sam Houston State, ULM, New Mexico State and Kentucky, particularly with more and more games – no matter how bad - available to wider audiences courtesy of the new SEC Network set to debut on Aug. 14. ...Other than Alabama, which was 11-2 and 7-1 in 2013, the best teams on LSU's 2014 home schedule are Ole Miss at 8-5 and 3-5 and Mississippi State at 7-6 and 3-5.

Quote:The Tigers open the 2014 season on Aug. 30 in a very attractive, non-conference game against Wisconsin, which was 9-4 and 6-2 in the Big Ten last year. But that game is in Houston, Texas, and LSU plays Wisconsin in the state of Wisconsin in Green Bay in 2016. Now that game will be in Lambeau Field

LSU also makes a lot of money from such a neutral site affair as it did with its games against TCU in Dallas last season, against Oregon in Dallas in 2011 and against North Carolina in Atlanta in 2010. Dallas and Atlanta are also prime recruiting posts for LSU.

But at the end of those trips, they are still away games.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/07/27/lsu-rethink-home-football-schedule/13249907/

Seems like too many bad home games is catching up with LSU!
* Is it time to question the 7 home / 5 away scheduling model?
* Could it be better to schedule 6 home / 6 away - but ALL FBS teams?


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Wilkie01 - 07-28-2014 06:42 AM

Why when LSU is still averaging 90,000 plus. 07-coffee3


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Hokie Mark - 07-28-2014 07:26 AM

(07-28-2014 06:42 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Why when LSU is still averaging 90,000 plus. 07-coffee3

Their stadium is being expanded this year to over 100,000. That means 10,000 empty seats at every game. That also means cheap tickets on stub hub, which will further erode regular ticket sales.

Obviously, LSU isn't in a desperate situation - but the financial model is definitely eroding, IMO.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Wilkie01 - 07-28-2014 07:44 AM

I would agree if the decline in average attendance drops more than 10% over the next three or four years but a trend is not measured by short term performance. 07-coffee3


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - georgia_tech_swagger - 07-28-2014 07:57 AM

If you're getting 90K paid for a cupcake at the insanely low estimated average cost of $30/ticket you're still banking $2,700,000. At a more reasonable average of $50 a ticket it jumps to $4,500,000. This doesn't include mandatory donations to get tickets in some areas.

We'll say the cupcake takes a very generous $1,250,000 for their loss. LSU still pockets an easy $1,500,000 minimum ... more likely between 3 to 5 million. This is just ticket revenue. We haven't gotten into radio rights, TV rights, rebroadcast rights, parking, concessions, and souvenirs. Seven home games will continue for quite some time with those margins.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Wilkie01 - 07-28-2014 08:19 AM

(07-28-2014 07:57 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If you're getting 90K paid for a cupcake at the insanely low estimated average cost of $30/ticket you're still banking $2,700,000. At a more reasonable average of $50 a ticket it jumps to $4,500,000. This doesn't include mandatory donations to get tickets in some areas.

We'll say the cupcake takes a very generous $1,250,000 for their loss. LSU still pockets an easy $1,500,000 minimum ... more likely between 3 to 5 million. This is just ticket revenue. We haven't gotten into radio rights, TV rights, rebroadcast rights, parking, concessions, and souvenirs. Seven home games will continue for quite some time with those margins.

Yep! 04-cheers


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - wildthing202 - 07-28-2014 08:56 AM

(07-27-2014 10:22 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/07/27/lsu-rethink-home-football-schedule/13249907/

Seems like too many bad home games is catching up with LSU!
* Is it time to question the 7 home / 5 away scheduling model?
* Could it be better to schedule 6 home / 6 away - but ALL FBS teams?

They should go to 6/6. Seems kind of ridiculous that they want a separation from the others but yet still want to play them in games that count. If they need the money that badly play a 13th exhibition game that won't count in the standings.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - georgia_tech_swagger - 07-28-2014 09:10 AM

(07-28-2014 08:56 AM)wildthing202 Wrote:  
(07-27-2014 10:22 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/07/27/lsu-rethink-home-football-schedule/13249907/

Seems like too many bad home games is catching up with LSU!
* Is it time to question the 7 home / 5 away scheduling model?
* Could it be better to schedule 6 home / 6 away - but ALL FBS teams?

They should go to 6/6. Seems kind of ridiculous that they want a separation from the others but yet still want to play them in games that count. If they need the money that badly play a 13th exhibition game that won't count in the standings.

The 7th game is basically FCS welfare. Several programs absolutely depend on it. And you're not going to get the same kinda bank (7 figures) for an FCS for an exhibition ... because you'll overnight destroy the supply of people willing to pay that much for an exhibition. Half the programs in the ACC probably couldn't swing a 7 figure cupcake game for an exhibition because the attendance just wouldn't be there.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Hokie Mark - 07-28-2014 09:42 AM

(07-28-2014 07:57 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If you're getting 90K paid for a cupcake at the insanely low estimated average cost of $30/ticket you're still banking $2,700,000. At a more reasonable average of $50 a ticket it jumps to $4,500,000. This doesn't include mandatory donations to get tickets in some areas.

We'll say the cupcake takes a very generous $1,250,000 for their loss. LSU still pockets an easy $1,500,000 minimum ... more likely between 3 to 5 million. This is just ticket revenue. We haven't gotten into radio rights, TV rights, rebroadcast rights, parking, concessions, and souvenirs. Seven home games will continue for quite some time with those margins.

The question is not whether the 7 home game model is still profitable, but whether it is MORE profitable than the 6 game (all FBS) model.

LSU can't do anything about SEC cupcakes, but they could replace 2 of the FCS/lower-tier G5 games with a pair of P5 games (1 home, 1 away).

So the math is more like this:
2 cupcake home games X 90,000 X $30 = $5,400,000
vs.
1 marquee home game X 100,000 X $70 = $7,000,000

admittedly the 1st scenario also includes twice the parking (not sure about twice the concessions if everyone leaves at half time though), but does that make up for the extra $1.6M ?


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Lou_C - 07-28-2014 09:43 AM

Attendance is declining for a lot of reasons...I imagine too many home games is way, way down the list.

Not having the Sam Houston State game (and the minimum 80k or whatever paid tickets to that game) doesn't mean that more people go to Kentucky.

And even if it did, how would getting rid of a game that will draw 70-80k at least, to get 10k more people at Kentucky, make sense?

I think declining attendance has a whole host of reasons and is largely irreversible. If they wanted to sell a few more they could play someone better than the cupcakes, but I think the clear conclusion is that you sell a lot more season tickets for an 11-1 team than a 9-3, and giving up 20-30k is a good financial deal to assure the Ws.

Nothing makes more money than winning big. Doing what Virginia does and trying to schedule big ticket sellers is a losing proposition...get your brains beat in by Oregon is a net loss in interest and ticket sales. Winning teams sell more tickets, no matter the opposition.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Hokie Mark - 07-28-2014 09:44 AM

(07-28-2014 09:43 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  Attendance is declining for a lot of reasons...I imagine too many home games is way, way down the list.

Not having the Sam Houston State game (and the minimum 80k or whatever paid tickets to that game) doesn't mean that more people go to Kentucky.

And even if it did, how would getting rid of a game that will draw 70-80k at least, to get 10k more people at Kentucky, make sense?

Because the ticket prices are so different.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Lou_C - 07-28-2014 10:00 AM

(07-28-2014 09:44 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 09:43 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  Attendance is declining for a lot of reasons...I imagine too many home games is way, way down the list.

Not having the Sam Houston State game (and the minimum 80k or whatever paid tickets to that game) doesn't mean that more people go to Kentucky.

And even if it did, how would getting rid of a game that will draw 70-80k at least, to get 10k more people at Kentucky, make sense?

Because the ticket prices are so different.

I don't think they are different enough to make up the difference. And parking, cokes, hot dogs, Tshirts, etc are the same price.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - wildthing202 - 07-28-2014 10:18 AM

(07-28-2014 09:10 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:56 AM)wildthing202 Wrote:  
(07-27-2014 10:22 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/07/27/lsu-rethink-home-football-schedule/13249907/

Seems like too many bad home games is catching up with LSU!
* Is it time to question the 7 home / 5 away scheduling model?
* Could it be better to schedule 6 home / 6 away - but ALL FBS teams?

They should go to 6/6. Seems kind of ridiculous that they want a separation from the others but yet still want to play them in games that count. If they need the money that badly play a 13th exhibition game that won't count in the standings.

The 7th game is basically FCS welfare. Several programs absolutely depend on it. And you're not going to get the same kinda bank (7 figures) for an FCS for an exhibition ... because you'll overnight destroy the supply of people willing to pay that much for an exhibition. Half the programs in the ACC probably couldn't swing a 7 figure cupcake game for an exhibition because the attendance just wouldn't be there.

I doubt that very much. If people pay for that kind of crap, now they'll still pay since it's their team playing. Not to mention they'll force people to pay for that one anyway if they want tickets to the others just like the NFL does with their preseason games. It's also more inventory for the TV networks since they'll get a real football game out of it(FBS vs FBS) compared to what we have now with the exhibition game that counts as a real one.

If you can't afford it, then drop it or reduce spending. Not everyone has to have a football team.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - ken d - 07-28-2014 10:45 AM

(07-28-2014 09:42 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 07:57 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If you're getting 90K paid for a cupcake at the insanely low estimated average cost of $30/ticket you're still banking $2,700,000. At a more reasonable average of $50 a ticket it jumps to $4,500,000. This doesn't include mandatory donations to get tickets in some areas.

We'll say the cupcake takes a very generous $1,250,000 for their loss. LSU still pockets an easy $1,500,000 minimum ... more likely between 3 to 5 million. This is just ticket revenue. We haven't gotten into radio rights, TV rights, rebroadcast rights, parking, concessions, and souvenirs. Seven home games will continue for quite some time with those margins.

The question is not whether the 7 home game model is still profitable, but whether it is MORE profitable than the 6 game (all FBS) model.

LSU can't do anything about SEC cupcakes, but they could replace 2 of the FCS/lower-tier G5 games with a pair of P5 games (1 home, 1 away).

So the math is more like this:
2 cupcake home games X 90,000 X $30 = $5,400,000
vs.
1 marquee home game X 100,000 X $70 = $7,000,000

admittedly the 1st scenario also includes twice the parking (not sure about twice the concessions if everyone leaves at half time though), but does that make up for the extra $1.6M ?

My guess is that ADs can also do math, and they are doing it with access to much better information than we have. So, if they think that seventh home game is worth it after doing the math, who am I to argue?


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - georgia_tech_swagger - 07-28-2014 11:24 AM

(07-28-2014 09:43 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  Attendance is declining for a lot of reasons...I imagine too many home games is way, way down the list.

Not having the Sam Houston State game (and the minimum 80k or whatever paid tickets to that game) doesn't mean that more people go to Kentucky.

And even if it did, how would getting rid of a game that will draw 70-80k at least, to get 10k more people at Kentucky, make sense?

I think declining attendance has a whole host of reasons and is largely irreversible. If they wanted to sell a few more they could play someone better than the cupcakes, but I think the clear conclusion is that you sell a lot more season tickets for an 11-1 team than a 9-3, and giving up 20-30k is a good financial deal to assure the Ws.

Nothing makes more money than winning big. Doing what Virginia does and trying to schedule big ticket sellers is a losing proposition...get your brains beat in by Oregon is a net loss in interest and ticket sales. Winning teams sell more tickets, no matter the opposition.

Yea. Virginia has gotten ZERO credit for playing legit OOC teams.

It's a big gamble to play big OOC. If you get fat on cupcakes, nobody really notices. (Example: The SEC, KState, Duke last year). If you play big and get crushed (Virginia) you are left for dead. If you play big and win big, that boost only lasts as long as you can sustain it (FSU 90's, Boise State a few years ago, etc).


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - nole - 07-28-2014 11:54 AM

Schools competing for national titles need and want revenue.


Schools with bigger crowds than average want more home games for more revenue.


Revenue is not just ticket sales....it is local economy which gets a HUGE BOOM from games and often pumps that money back into the program.




Schools that don't compete for titles and that have crowds of 40K instead of 75K don't see the point of 7 home games.....and don't care.


But those schools aren't paying the bills.




FSU for example......DEFINITELY needs a 7th home game....it is one, of many, revenue streams used to keep the program competitive. Taking it away would be an idiotic move by the ACC, if it ever was considering it.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Wilkie01 - 07-28-2014 12:19 PM

The day the ACC starts telling its members, whom they can schedule out of conference will be the day teams start searching for a different conference. 07-coffee3


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Hokie Mark - 07-28-2014 01:04 PM

(07-28-2014 11:54 AM)nole Wrote:  FSU for example......DEFINITELY needs a 7th home game....it is one, of many, revenue streams used to keep the program competitive. Taking it away would be an idiotic move by the ACC, if it ever was considering it.

(07-28-2014 12:19 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The day the ACC starts telling its members, whom they can schedule out of conference will be the day teams start searching for a different conference. 07-coffee3

100% Agree that the ACC should not consider anything (9th ACC game) which might take away the extra home game for FSU, et al.

I don't agree that's always the best way to make more money, but to each his own.


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - wildthing202 - 07-29-2014 03:07 AM

You guys realize this would apply to all of the P5 not just the ACC right? Every conference would have 6 home games only so unless FSU plans on dropping down to FCS they would get 6 home games no matter where they go. Thus any complaints about competition are out. Besides if FSU is that desperate why not drop Florida and get an 8th home game to help even more with the "competition".


RE: Problems with the 7-home-game model - Dasville - 07-29-2014 04:04 AM

Head coach Kevin Wilson at IU wants 7 or 8 home games.

http://www.wdrb.com/story/26133187/bozich-louisville-indiana-football-game-remains-unlikely


From the link:



Quote:Wilson understands that the Big Ten is moving to a nine-game conference schedule in 2016. Consider that another reason to schedule three non-league victories.

"This will be my fourth year at Indiana and the third time we've had six home games," Wilson said. "I think if you go back through the last decade, count the number of Big Ten teams that have been 6-6.

"It's called home-field advantage. It's your locker room, it's their travel. You want to play at home.

"When you're a Big Ten player and you're branded a power five BCS school, you need to target a 7-5 schedule … to me having seven home games was critical to having a winning program at IU. And I don't think any coach would say different – seven or eight, what every Big Ten team is looking for."