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+---- Thread: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise (/thread-694594.html)
Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SumOfAllFears - 07-09-2014 01:29 PM
Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise, study claims
Lefters Heads Explode
Quote:The study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans now have permits to carry concealed weapons, up from 4.5 million in 2007. The 146 percent increase has come even as both murder and violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Fitbud - 07-09-2014 01:30 PM
Coorelation is not causation.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SumOfAllFears - 07-09-2014 01:33 PM
(07-09-2014 01:30 PM)Fitbud Wrote: Coorelation is not causation.
So what's your theory? OOPS I forgot your head just exploded.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - NIU007 - 07-09-2014 01:48 PM
As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SuperFlyBCat - 07-09-2014 01:51 PM
(07-09-2014 01:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote: As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
Some of that drop might be because Chicago has lost well over 200,000 residents over the last 10 years. less targets, less perps. Sometimes they find their way to first older suburban rings.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - UofMstateU - 07-09-2014 01:51 PM
Back in the 80;s-90's sometime, the elderly were being attacked by thugs in Memphis around the eastgate shopping cetner. Then, several high profile situations occurred. In one case, a man at eastgate mall was carjacked, and he shot and killed the perp while the perp was fleeing in his vehicle. Within a week or two of that timeframe, other elderly people shot and killed some thugs trying to rob them. Certain parts of the community demanded that the police charge the elderly with murder, because in one situation, the perpetrator was fleeing. (albeit in the elderly man's car.) No charges were ever filed.
And suddenly, the attacks on the elderly came to a screaching halt.
But to Fitbudsd nonsesical comments, it was all just a hysterical coincidence of unrelatedness.....
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Fitbud - 07-09-2014 01:51 PM
(07-09-2014 01:33 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:30 PM)Fitbud Wrote: Coorelation is not causation.
So what's your theory? OOPS I forgot your head just exploded.
No theory. I'm just saying that one doesn't necessarily cause the other.
I could see how it would stop some murders but concealed weapons don't really deter crime because they are in fact concealed.
If we really want to deter crime, perhaps they should let those who want to care weapons on their hip where everyone can see them. That would deter people in my opinion.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Cali_Cat - 07-09-2014 01:52 PM
Lol, conservatives still pumping this bs?? Give it up.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - NIU007 - 07-09-2014 01:53 PM
(07-09-2014 01:51 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote: As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
Some of that drop might be because Chicago has lost well over 200,000 residents over the last 10 years. less targets, less perps. Sometimes they find their way to first older suburban rings.
Well, the murders dropped, but the murder rate also dropped, which would already take into account the number of people in the city. This assumes the numbers are accurate of course.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - HeartOfDixie - 07-09-2014 01:55 PM
(07-09-2014 01:53 PM)NIU007 Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:51 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote: As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
Some of that drop might be because Chicago has lost well over 200,000 residents over the last 10 years. less targets, less perps. Sometimes they find their way to first older suburban rings.
Well, the murders dropped, but the murder rate also dropped, which would already take into account the number of people in the city. This assumes the numbers are accurate of course.
Say that again...
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Fitbud - 07-09-2014 01:57 PM
I don't get how concealed carry would lower the murder rate. Don't gang members all carry concealed? They seem to be shooting each other up all the time.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Redwingtom - 07-09-2014 01:57 PM
(07-09-2014 01:29 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise, study claims
Lefters Heads Explode
Quote:The study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans now have permits to carry concealed weapons, up from 4.5 million in 2007. The 146 percent increase has come even as both murder and violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.
![[Image: a+free+idiot+test.jpg]](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iU0exMmoqcE/UhUXmzhLKbI/AAAAAAAANYQ/Zcw7TH1oitU/s200/a+free+idiot+test.jpg)
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SuperFlyBCat - 07-09-2014 01:58 PM
(07-09-2014 01:55 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:53 PM)NIU007 Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:51 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote: As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
Some of that drop might be because Chicago has lost well over 200,000 residents over the last 10 years. less targets, less perps. Sometimes they find their way to first older suburban rings.
Well, the murders dropped, but the murder rate also dropped, which would already take into account the number of people in the city. This assumes the numbers are accurate of course.
Say that again...
I see what you are saying NIU. Mandatory sentencing keeping people locked up maybe?
Really don't know.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - NIU007 - 07-09-2014 01:58 PM
(07-09-2014 01:55 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:53 PM)NIU007 Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:51 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote: As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
Some of that drop might be because Chicago has lost well over 200,000 residents over the last 10 years. less targets, less perps. Sometimes they find their way to first older suburban rings.
Well, the murders dropped, but the murder rate also dropped, which would already take into account the number of people in the city. This assumes the numbers are accurate of course.
Say that again...
The murder rate takes into account number of citizens (therefore the drop in Chicago population doesn't explain it), the number of murders does not. Is that what you're asking?
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - HeartOfDixie - 07-09-2014 01:59 PM
(07-09-2014 01:58 PM)NIU007 Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:55 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:53 PM)NIU007 Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:51 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote: As an example, Chicago's murder rate has been in a downward trend for a long time - decades, really. Meanwhile, the state just recently (late last year) allowed concealed carry. Obviously there's something else going on that made it drop. For Chicago the rate is still high compared to other big cities, I believe, due mostly to the gang violence.
I've seen the conclusion drawn before - variable X is increasing over time, and halfway through the trend, event Y occurs. Then people claim that "X went up after Y occurred" and conclude that Y caused X.
Some of that drop might be because Chicago has lost well over 200,000 residents over the last 10 years. less targets, less perps. Sometimes they find their way to first older suburban rings.
Well, the murders dropped, but the murder rate also dropped, which would already take into account the number of people in the city. This assumes the numbers are accurate of course.
Say that again...
The murder rate takes into account number of citizens (therefore the drop in Chicago population doesn't explain it), the number of murders does not. Is that what you're asking?
Yea, I wasn't sure what you meant.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Fitbud - 07-09-2014 02:01 PM
So if carry concealed lowers the murder rate, why are murderes among gang members so high? Shouldn't it be lower since everyone pretty much carries concealed?
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SuperFlyBCat - 07-09-2014 02:02 PM
(07-09-2014 01:57 PM)Fitbud Wrote: I don't get how concealed carry would lower the murder rate. Don't gang members all carry concealed? They seem to be shooting other up all the time.
a law abiding citizen is less likely to get jacked, robbed, beaten if perps think they are carrying. Same deal for someone breaking in a home or a home invasion. Perps want easy safe targets. They don't want to get shot.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SuperFlyBCat - 07-09-2014 02:03 PM
(07-09-2014 02:01 PM)Fitbud Wrote: So if carry concealed lowers the murder rate, why are murderes among gang members so high? Shouldn't it be lower since everyone pretty much carries concealed?
because they are lawless.
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - Fitbud - 07-09-2014 02:03 PM
(07-09-2014 02:02 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:57 PM)Fitbud Wrote: I don't get how concealed carry would lower the murder rate. Don't gang members all carry concealed? They seem to be shooting other up all the time.
a law abiding citizen is less likely to get jacked, robbed, beaten if perps think they are carrying. Same deal for someone breaking in a home or a home invasion. Perps want easy safe targets. They don't want to get shot.
How are they going to know if the weapon is concealed?
RE: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise - SuperFlyBCat - 07-09-2014 02:04 PM
(07-09-2014 02:03 PM)Fitbud Wrote:(07-09-2014 02:02 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:(07-09-2014 01:57 PM)Fitbud Wrote: I don't get how concealed carry would lower the murder rate. Don't gang members all carry concealed? They seem to be shooting other up all the time.
a law abiding citizen is less likely to get jacked, robbed, beaten if perps think they are carrying. Same deal for someone breaking in a home or a home invasion. Perps want easy safe targets. They don't want to get shot.
How are they going to know if the weapon is concealed?
I said think, not know.