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+----- Thread: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run (/thread-631548.html)
Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - waltgreenberg - 04-30-2013 04:16 PM
With classes and Finals behind them (and now free of the burdens of academics), it is now or never for the Rice baseball team. Currently ranked just inside the Top 20 in most of the national polls, our RPI ranking sits at just #39 (though it has steadily dropped from well over #100 the past 5 weeks) and we find ourselves 2 1/2 games behind Southern Mississippi in the conference standings (though only one game back in the loss column)...and half a game behind UCF (who own the tie-breaker against us). Clearly, we have considerable work to do (and will needs some help from others) if we hope to win the regular season conference title. However, with 12 games remaining, plus the conference tournament (played at home at Reckling Park this year), we can still achieve season-long goals of an 18th consecutive conference championship and yet another 40-win season (to go along with our he retaining the Silver Glove trophy) with a strong stretch run. Unfortunately, we have no time to shake the rust off from the 10-day break from competitive action, as the Lamar game on Wednesday presents our final opportunity to improve our post-season resume and RPI, given they are the last team remaining team on our schedule with a sub-100 ranked RPI. .
Lamar is having it's best season in a decade, and is legitimately in the hunt for it's first post-season appearance since 2003. Though Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State are getting most of the national attention, Lamar is currently leading the Southland Conference with a 12-6 record (tied with SHS, but they own the tie-breaker), and they boast an overall 33-11 record (8-5 on the road, 6-6 vs. Top 100), with quality wins against #77 UH (when the Coogs were in the midst of their hot streak), #33 Central Arkansas, #74 SHS x 2 and #84 SE Lousiana x 2. The Cardinals currently have national rankings of #46 in ISR, #49 in RPI and #211 in Strength of Schedule. They enter Reckling on an 8-game win streak, during which span their pitching staff has given up on average just under 2 runs per game (and no game with over 4 runs). Consequently, as important a game as it is for us, it will be just as important for Lamar, who will also be seeking revenge for our 9-8 victory in Beaumont on April 9th (a game in which we very nearly blew an 8-1 lead following a rain delay). Here is their schedule/results YTD...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/schedule/Lamar
Lamar is a very good offensive team and an exceptional defensive squad (despite the 4 errors they committed against us in that first game). As a team, they're hitting .300/.384/.410, with 19 HRs, and averaging 3 extrabase hits and 6.7 runs per game. No doubt their stats are somewhat inflated due to their very weak (#211 ranked) schedule, but those offensive numbers are still impressive. And with Lamar you do not have the luxury of simply pitching carefully to one or two leading batters, as they have shown consistency in production up and down their everyday lineup. Eight of their nine regulars are hitting over .290, with five batting over .300, and eight of their nine regulars have 20+ RBIs (with 5 guys at 30+ RBIs). (Note-- Ratterree is leading the Owls with 27 RBIs, and we only have two other guys with 20+ RBIs.) Six batters have accumulated double-digit extrabase hit totals. Having said that, they're led by Darian Johnson (.374/.447/.486, 1 HR, 14 doubles/triples, 33 RBIs, 25 BBs, just 8 Ks), Sam Bumpers (.347/.414/.494, 3 HRs, 14 doubles/triples, 30 RBIs) and VJ Bunner (.317/.416/.532, 5 HRs, 12 doubles, 26 RBIs). Johnson is a switch hitter, while their next 4 top hitters are all right-handed.
Defensively, they continue to post one of the highest fielding percentages in the country (.985), with only one regular having committed more than 3 errors (SS Sam Bumpers with just 6 errors). They've turned 44 double plays, and have allowed just 7 passed balls. However, opponents have run against their pitchers/catchers, succeeding on 31 of 43 stolen base attempts (72%).
On the mound, forgetting their weak strength of schedule for the moment, Lamar's pitching staff has put up respectable across-the-board numbers: 3.54 ERA, 2:1 strikeout:walk ratio, 7 Ks/game. However, much of that is due to the strong performances of their co-aces (Harrington, Dzeidzic), who have each logged 75+ innings with ERAs under 2.85. Given our difficulties against southpaw pitching (which has to been known by opposing coaches by now), we'll like face their 3rd weekend starter, Jr LHP, David Carver (14 app, 9 starts, 5-3, 2 saves, 51.2 IP, 4.01 ERA, 20 BBs, 26 Ks), who worked 4 innings and threw 58 pitches in relief on Sunday-- either as their mid-week starter or in relief. (Note-- Lamar faces Oral Roberts in a non-conference series this coming weekend, so they may very well go all out to beat us on Wednesday.)
Will be interesting to see how Coach Graham decides to work the pitching staff. I'm assuming Kubitza will not be used since he'll be back as our Friday night starter at UAB in a couple days, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we go with "all staff", with Stephens, Simms, Lemond, Fox and McDowell all getting 1 - 3 innings of work to shake the rust off.
Hopefully the team is refresh, rejuvinated and ready to bring heightened focus, energy and aggressiveness to the field of play. Time for a big-time and extended finishing kick. The time is now. Time to go on a roll. Go Owls!
Here's my preview posted prior to our April 9th game against Lamar, as well as the box score from that earlier game...
http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=628683
http://www.lamarcardinals.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2012-2013/lu34.html
...and here are Lamar's individual/team stats over their first 44 games...
http://www.lamarcardinals.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2012-2013/teamcume.html
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - Tiki Owl - 04-30-2013 07:05 PM
One has to wonder if the storms that are due at UAB Friday will make a move to a Saturday DH or if they will push through prior to the night start.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - smackdaddy - 04-30-2013 07:21 PM
(04-30-2013 07:05 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: One has to wonder if the storms that are due at UAB Friday will make a move to a Saturday DH or if they will push through prior to the night start.
Hmm, wonder who that helps. One could certainly make the argument that it helps us and our presumably deeper bullpen, though it is nice to get Lemond or Simms in multiple games. I assume that's less likely with 3 games in 24 hours.
I hate to say that we *need* a sweep, but, boy, uh, winning three against CUSA's last-place team sure would be helpful if we're to catch USM.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - waltgreenberg - 04-30-2013 07:41 PM
Here's the Lamar game notes for Wednesday's game...
http://www.lamarcardinals.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/043013aaa.html
...Jr LHP Lance Warren is the announced starter for Lamar...
13 app, 3 starts, 1-1, 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.195 BAA, 9 BBs, 18 Ks, 13 hits (but just 2 for extra bases)
Unless he gives his best Sandy Koufax impression against us (which, unfortunately, has happened numerous times in the past with seldom used pitchers facing us in mid-week games), I suspect he'll see no more than 3 innings of action....and wouldn't be at all surprised if Jr LHP David Carver (who has started 9 Sunday games, as well as worked in relief) relieves him.
We're going to have to quickly solve the riddle of hitting southpaw pitching, or we're in for a very tough assignment against Memphis in another week (with two of the best left-handers in CUSA).
According to the Rice game notes...
http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/043013aaa.html
...we're once again going to start Blake Fox against the Cardinals. Though Blake pitched okay before the rain delay, he was shelled once he returned to the mound. IMO, odd choice to be starting Blake when Lamar has already seen him once this year (and hit him) and the Cardinal lineup in predominantly right-handed....not to mention he is our only left-handed reliever for this weekend (and our second most consistent reliever overall). This game is too important for us to be experimenting.
Note, despite scoring 9 runs in our first game at Lamar (courtesy of 4 errors by the Cardinals), we were out hit 11 to 5, with Aquino getting 3 of our 5 hits....and we only face one quality pitcher out of the 7 that took the mound for Lamar.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - westsidewolf1989 - 05-01-2013 11:56 AM
Here's the remaining conference schedules for our primary competitors and us.
Southern Miss
@ECU
Non-conference series
@UH
UCF
Non-conference series
Tulane
@ ECU
Rice
@UAB
Memphis
Marshall
At the very least, we need to go 7-2 in our remaining conference record, which would put us at 16-8 on the season, and force Southern Miss to take 4 out of 6 in order to win the conference outright, since we own the tiebreaker with them. Not an easy task for them, especially playing two decent teams on the road, but not impossible either. In that scenario, UCF would have to go 5-1 to win the tiebreaker against us, which I don't see happening.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - grol - 05-01-2013 01:40 PM
I heard Ping Sun was throwing out the first pitch tonight. She's been practicing since she had never thrown a baseball before being asked.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - Ranger - 05-01-2013 01:49 PM
(04-30-2013 07:21 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:05 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: One has to wonder if the storms that are due at UAB Friday will make a move to a Saturday DH or if they will push through prior to the night start.
Hmm, wonder who that helps. One could certainly make the argument that it helps us and our presumably deeper bullpen, though it is nice to get Lemond or Simms in multiple games. I assume that's less likely with 3 games in 24 hours.
I hate to say that we *need* a sweep, but, boy, uh, winning three against CUSA's last-place team sure would be helpful if we're to catch USM.
I'll say it. We need a sweep. And we need to sweep Marshall as well.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - smackdaddy - 05-01-2013 01:59 PM
(05-01-2013 01:49 PM)Ranger Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:21 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:05 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: One has to wonder if the storms that are due at UAB Friday will make a move to a Saturday DH or if they will push through prior to the night start.
Hmm, wonder who that helps. One could certainly make the argument that it helps us and our presumably deeper bullpen, though it is nice to get Lemond or Simms in multiple games. I assume that's less likely with 3 games in 24 hours.
I hate to say that we *need* a sweep, but, boy, uh, winning three against CUSA's last-place team sure would be helpful if we're to catch USM.
I'll say it. We need a sweep. And we need to sweep Marshall as well.
Haha. Love me some Ranger. Break out the brooms, brother!
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - TJS_NYC - 05-01-2013 02:21 PM
(05-01-2013 01:49 PM)Ranger Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:21 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:05 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: One has to wonder if the storms that are due at UAB Friday will make a move to a Saturday DH or if they will push through prior to the night start.
Hmm, wonder who that helps. One could certainly make the argument that it helps us and our presumably deeper bullpen, though it is nice to get Lemond or Simms in multiple games. I assume that's less likely with 3 games in 24 hours.
I hate to say that we *need* a sweep, but, boy, uh, winning three against CUSA's last-place team sure would be helpful if we're to catch USM.
I'll say it. We need a sweep. And we need to sweep Marshall as well.
I hope that they play with the intensity and mindset that they need to sweep all 3 remaining series!
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - waltgreenberg - 05-01-2013 04:06 PM
(05-01-2013 01:49 PM)Ranger Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:21 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:(04-30-2013 07:05 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: One has to wonder if the storms that are due at UAB Friday will make a move to a Saturday DH or if they will push through prior to the night start.
Hmm, wonder who that helps. One could certainly make the argument that it helps us and our presumably deeper bullpen, though it is nice to get Lemond or Simms in multiple games. I assume that's less likely with 3 games in 24 hours.
I hate to say that we *need* a sweep, but, boy, uh, winning three against CUSA's last-place team sure would be helpful if we're to catch USM.
I'll say it. We need a sweep. And we need to sweep Marshall as well.
+1. It's due time started playing like a Top 25 caliber club, and put away our weakest competitors early in games.
RE: Lamar Baseball Preview-- Kicking Off The Stretch Run - texd - 05-01-2013 07:26 PM
(05-01-2013 11:56 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote: Here's the remaining conference schedules for our primary competitors and us.
Southern Miss
@ECU
Non-conference series
@UH
Last weekend of the season would be a good time for UH to turn around their slide.