(11-14-2017 09:47 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. Wisconsin
6. Auburn
7. UGa

Miami should be rooting for UM and OSU to knock off Wisconsin. Then the three SEC teams will knock each other out.

If Bama loses close to Auburn or UGa and Miami loses close to Clemson and Wisconsin is upset, then it comes down to Bama 12-1 vs Miami 12-1. Tough call... I don't see Bama getting in if they lose to Auburn.

Miami doesn't need to root for anyone but themselves - if they keep winning, they are in.

(11-14-2017 09:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-12-2017 05:53 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(11-12-2017 02:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

I know the history of how the "13th point" term came in to usage. If you follow college football, you can't help but know. And FWIW, the Big 12 did get in to the playoffs in the second year of the CFP, so clearly the lack of a 13th data point didn't keep them out that year.

And yes, the Austin Peay analogy does work, because the last game of the season isn't any more the "13th game" in the sense of having played 13 games than any other game is. Obviously, the last game is critical because it's the last game that factors in to the final rankings. But it isn't "13" any more than the week two games is.

Yes quo, I realize you know everything ahead of time.

But despite the Big 12 making the CFP early, that "13th data point" comment is what spurred them to make changes.

And the difference is not that each game is one of 13, it's that one candidate has played an extra game (CCG) against a better opponent at the critical time of year, than the candidate who only played 12 games and sat out CCG week, or simply played a regular season game.

So yes, your analogy about Austin Peay is mathematically correct, but completely misses the point the CFP SC made about why that gave teams an advantage.

Recency bias in full effect, put in motion during the first CFP season when they said rankings are issued based on schedules to date. The last data point becomes important when it is considered a "good" win (which includes most CCG champ games vs. some random one off).

In full effect today. They completely forgot about Ohio St. being destroyed by an unranked Iowa and moved them back to 8. Also forgot about Auburn losing to LSU, focusing on their solid win at home vs. UGA. UGA has beaten ND on the road and MSU at home and lost to Auburn on the road. Auburn has beaten UGA and MSU at home and lost to Clemson and LSU on the road.

Ohio St is 9 not 8....

But really- who behind them should be ahead of them? Penn St? Nope. USC? Got murdered by Notre Dame. TCU? 1 CFP top 25 win. Oklahoma St? 0 CFP top 25 wins. Washington St? 3 CFP top 25 wins, but 2 ugly losses.

Also, Auburn's win over LSU was no solid win. It was a great win- one of the top ones of the year. And it's easy to see why the committee would rank Auburn ahead of Georgia- they did kind of just play, you know.

(11-12-2017 02:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

I know the history of how the "13th point" term came in to usage. If you follow college football, you can't help but know. And FWIW, the Big 12 did get in to the playoffs in the second year of the CFP, so clearly the lack of a 13th data point didn't keep them out that year.

And yes, the Austin Peay analogy does work, because the last game of the season isn't any more the "13th game" in the sense of having played 13 games than any other game is. Obviously, the last game is critical because it's the last game that factors in to the final rankings. But it isn't "13" any more than the week two games is.

Yes quo, I realize you know everything ahead of time.

But despite the Big 12 making the CFP early, that "13th data point" comment is what spurred them to make changes.

And the difference is not that each game is one of 13, it's that one candidate has played an extra game (CCG) against a better opponent at the critical time of year, than the candidate who only played 12 games and sat out CCG week, or simply played a regular season game.

So yes, your analogy about Austin Peay is mathematically correct, but completely misses the point the CFP SC made about why that gave teams an advantage.

But ... the mathematical correctness of my analogy shows that the CFP is wrong to regard the CCG as a "13th game". We know that they, or at least some of them, so regard it, the point was, they are mistaken to do so.

(11-14-2017 10:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2017 09:47 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. Wisconsin
6. Auburn
7. UGa

Miami should be rooting for UM and OSU to knock off Wisconsin. Then the three SEC teams will knock each other out.

If Bama loses close to Auburn or UGa and Miami loses close to Clemson and Wisconsin is upset, then it comes down to Bama 12-1 vs Miami 12-1. Tough call... I don't see Bama getting in if they lose to Auburn.

Miami doesn't need to root for anyone but themselves - if they keep winning, they are in.

The only way the SEC doesn't have a rep is if the top 3 SEC teams drops games not against each other...

If Georgia is 11-1 in the SEC Title game and they win they are in.

If Alabama is 12-0 in the SEC Title game and win they are in.

If Auburn beats Bama and is 10-2 heading into the SEC Champ game and we win, we're in.

Yes someone is going to lose but as long as Georgia doesn't lose to Kentucky or Georgia Tech, Auburn doesn't lose to ULM, and Bama doesn't lose to Mercer the SEC will have a rep.

Auburn even with 2 losses finishing the season by beating 2 #1 teams and then beating a Top 5 or 6 Georgia again in the SEC will solidify the spot.

It's still very daunting but if we beat Bama it gets real and the committee putting as at 6 shows that. No one else has the chance to finish the season the way we do.

What will be very interesting is if Auburn beats Bama and keeps them out of SEC championship game. How do you leave out a 1 loss Bama, especially if it's close to include a 2 loss Ohio st?

(11-15-2017 12:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  What will be very interesting is if Auburn beats Bama and keeps them out of SEC championship game. How do you leave out a 1 loss Bama, especially if it's close to include a 2 loss Ohio st?

Ohio State wouldn't be in.

The top 4 in that situation would probably be back to including 2 SEC teams. Not being biased, just trying to think about what the committee would do.

In that situation I see the top 4 like this.

Clemson or Miami
Auburn or Georgia
Oklahoma
Alabama

A 1 loss Wisconsin non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 2 loss Ohio State Champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 1 loss Miami non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 2 loss Clemson non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.

If Auburn wins out we're in simply because of the way it all lined up. Normally we would have been out of it but because we beat #1 Georgia, have a chance to beat #1 Alabama, and then play top #5 or #6 Georgia again it puts us in if we win out. A 1 loss Georgia team who wins the SEC Championship against what would be a top 3 Auburn team in that situation would put them in.

Now if Oklahoma loses to WVU or loses the Big 12 that's what will give the B1G life again. Unless of course we have a bunch of chaos and it changes everything we think we know now lol.

(11-14-2017 09:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-12-2017 05:53 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Recency bias in full effect, put in motion during the first CFP season when they said rankings are issued based on schedules to date. The last data point becomes important when it is considered a "good" win (which includes most CCG champ games vs. some random one off).

In full effect today. They completely forgot about Ohio St. being destroyed by an unranked Iowa and moved them back to 8. Also forgot about Auburn losing to LSU, focusing on their solid win at home vs. UGA. UGA has beaten ND on the road and MSU at home and lost to Auburn on the road. Auburn has beaten UGA and MSU at home and lost to Clemson and LSU on the road.

Another "trend" I see in this poll...road losses are more forgivable than home losses.

--#2 Clemson lost on the road at Syracuse (plus the Bryant-injury excuse). #4 OU lost at home vs. ISU.

--#10 PSU lost on the road closely twice. #11 USC also lost twice on the road but got blown out once on the road.

--#8 ND lost on the road badly and lost at home once...behind #6 Auburn who lost on the road twice and #7 Georgia who lost on the road once.

--#12 TCU lost twice on the road. #13 OkSt lost twice at home.

And I think they SHOULD take that into account. CFB is not like NFL. College athletes are not professionals...they are more immature...opposing stadiums are many times more rowdy. And there are fewer games overall. College scheduling is one of the least equitable things in all of sports...so I'm glad the committee is noticing.

(11-15-2017 12:27 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 12:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  What will be very interesting is if Auburn beats Bama and keeps them out of SEC championship game. How do you leave out a 1 loss Bama, especially if it's close to include a 2 loss Ohio st?

Ohio State wouldn't be in.

The top 4 in that situation would probably be back to including 2 SEC teams. Not being biased, just trying to think about what the committee would do.

In that situation I see the top 4 like this.

Clemson or Miami
Auburn or Georgia
Oklahoma
Alabama

A 1 loss Wisconsin non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 2 loss Ohio State Champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 1 loss Miami non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 2 loss Clemson non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.

If Auburn wins out we're in simply because of the way it all lined up. Normally we would have been out of it but because we beat #1 Georgia, have a chance to beat #1 Alabama, and then play top #5 or #6 Georgia again it puts us in if we win out. A 1 loss Georgia team who wins the SEC Championship against what would be a top 3 Auburn team in that situation would put them in.

Now if Oklahoma loses to WVU or loses the Big 12 that's what will give the B1G life again. Unless of course we have a bunch of chaos and it changes everything we think we know now lol.

I agree with you and think you are spot on in your analysis.

However with college football being incredibly political the optics of an Alabama who didn't even win their division getting in over the Big 10 champions, especially if that champion is undefeated Wisconsin, seem to make it unlikely

Not sure an 11-1 Bama that doesn't play in the CCG is guaranteed anything even with another upset ahead of them. I'd take Miami over them because Miami has a better OOC win. Miami can't get blown out against Clemson, but they can sneak in over 11-1 Bama losing to Auburn.

(11-15-2017 10:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Not sure an 11-1 Bama that doesn't play in the CCG is guaranteed anything even with another upset ahead of them. I'd take Miami over them because Miami has a better OOC win. Miami can't get blown out against Clemson, but they can sneak in over 11-1 Bama losing to Auburn.

wouldn't take that much. All it would take quite frankly would be one of Ohio St beating Wisconsin(not an upset) or TCU beating Oklahoma(upset, but not a huge one). Or for that matter anyone else beating Wisconsin.

(11-07-2017 10:20 PM)otown Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 10:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 07:43 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 07:26 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
5. Oklahoma
6. TCU
7. Miami, FL
8. Wisconsin
9. Washington
10. Auburn
11. USC
12. Michigan State
13. Ohio State
14. Penn State
15. Oklahoma State
16. Mississippi State
17. Virginia Tech
18. UCF
19. Washington State
20. Iowa
21. Iowa State
22. Memphis
23. NC State
24. LSU
25. Northwestern

I am actually pretty surprised Miami didn't pass us with their win over Va Tech, giving them a quality win. They did pass Wiscy.

The Big 10 and PAC are the ones in a precarious position. It seems to me the committee wanted a Big 12 representative as next in and so they positioned OU and TCU together until this weeks game is over.

The question in my mind is how high does Miami jump if they beat Notre Dame this weekend?

You have to have them get into the top 4 if they win. It would be a travesty otherwise.......... but I feel they are actually gonna get exposed and get their butts handed to them.

And yet last night's poll shows you already what will happen. Clemson is being slightly protected by making them #2 but Miami is being provided for by putting them in proximity. If Clemson beats Miami then Miami will be reduced to 6th or 7th. If Miami wins they'll jump to #2 and ESPN will be assured an ACC entrant. Georgia sit one below Auburn. If Auburn beats Alabama then Bama will likely drop to 4th provided it is a close game. That leaves Alabama hanging around in case Wisconsin can't get her done. Alabama does have national cachet. If Auburn loses to Georgia the committee might prefer to sneak Alabama back into the SEC's slot the way they did Ohio State over Penn State a year ago. Auburn would have beaten Alabama in a close one and would have blown Georgia out. If Auburn loses a close CCG we're out anyway and it leaves Alabama a chance to slide in over Georgia. I don't think the committee will give the SEC two slots unless some really weird stuff happens, but they will leave the door open for Alabama which is why they are #1 now.

If Oklahoma loses they are out. If Wisconsin loses to Michigan and then in the CCG I don't see any Big 10 schools getting in unless OU loses again. I think a one loss Georgia or Miami team could squeeze into that 4th slot should Clemson win out, and Oklahoma and Wisconsin lose.

Just curious, if SEC only has one in the CFP, obviously Sugar bowl is not in play this year for the runner up. Where would the next two go assuming they are NY6 bound? How is it determined who goes where? Obviously the committee decides who actually goes to a NY6 bowl.

Say Auburn beats Alabama and then beats Georgia in the SECCG. Auburn is in the CFP. Alabama just outside and doesn't get in. Georgia doesn't get in. CFP ends up being Auburn, Miami, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma (no particular order)

So you now have Georgia and Alabama set for a NY6. Who goes where. I think SEC can send someone to Orange this year. Who gets placed to the Orange out of the two. Is it the highest ranked? Who goes to the Peach?

(11-15-2017 06:35 PM)otown Wrote:  Just curious, if SEC only has one in the CFP, obviously Sugar bowl is not in play this year for the runner up. Where would the next two go assuming they are NY6 bound? How is it determined who goes where? Obviously the committee decides who actually goes to a NY6 bowl.

Say Auburn beats Alabama and then beats Georgia in the SECCG. Auburn is in the CFP. Alabama just outside and doesn't get in. Georgia doesn't get in. CFP ends up being Auburn, Miami, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma (no particular order)

So you now have Georgia and Alabama set for a NY6. Who goes where. I think SEC can send someone to Orange this year. Who gets placed to the Orange out of the two. Is it the highest ranked? Who goes to the Peach?

Orange goes to the highest from SEC/B10/ND. In your scenario- Alabama would go Orange and Georgia would go access.

If Auburn winning the SEC is the scenario, then:

1. Clemson/Miami vs 4. Wisconsin (Sugar)
2. Auburn vs 3. OU (Rose)

Peach: UCF vs UGa
Orange: Bama vs Clemson/Miami
Cotton: ND vs OSU
Fiesta: USC vs TCU

Would be weird not seeing Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Would they give the Rose Bowl to Clemson as a number 1 seed?

(11-15-2017 08:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 12:27 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 12:07 AM)solohawks Wrote:  What will be very interesting is if Auburn beats Bama and keeps them out of SEC championship game. How do you leave out a 1 loss Bama, especially if it's close to include a 2 loss Ohio st?

Ohio State wouldn't be in.

The top 4 in that situation would probably be back to including 2 SEC teams. Not being biased, just trying to think about what the committee would do.

In that situation I see the top 4 like this.

Clemson or Miami
Auburn or Georgia
Oklahoma
Alabama

A 1 loss Wisconsin non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 2 loss Ohio State Champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 1 loss Miami non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.
A 2 loss Clemson non champ isn't getting in over a 1 loss Bama.

If Auburn wins out we're in simply because of the way it all lined up. Normally we would have been out of it but because we beat #1 Georgia, have a chance to beat #1 Alabama, and then play top #5 or #6 Georgia again it puts us in if we win out. A 1 loss Georgia team who wins the SEC Championship against what would be a top 3 Auburn team in that situation would put them in.

Now if Oklahoma loses to WVU or loses the Big 12 that's what will give the B1G life again. Unless of course we have a bunch of chaos and it changes everything we think we know now lol.

I agree with you and think you are spot on in your analysis.

However with college football being incredibly political the optics of an Alabama who didn't even win their division getting in over the Big 10 champions, especially if that champion is undefeated Wisconsin, seem to make it unlikely

Yeah I think if its an undefeated Wisconsin they'd get the nod, but not a 1 loss non champ. My analysis is based off what I saw directly last season.

Penn State beat Ohio State head to head, and won the B1G Championship game. (They didn't have the opportunity Auburn has schedule wise) so their 2 losses kept them out and Ohio State got in over them. Alabama has the biggest name in College Football right now. Based on a lot of numbers that have even been posted here about TV ratings, they are also the #1 draw. Their fans travel as good or better than any other fan base in the country.

I mean personally I wish they would make it a stipulation that you have to win your conference to get into the playoff. Even if they don't want to include the G5 they could have the 5 P5 champs in a playoff with #4 and #5 having to play an extra game to make the 4 team deal.

So let's say Auburn wins the SEC. Miami wins the ACC, Wisconsin wins the B1G, Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and USC wins the PAC. The 5 team setup would be like this.

#1 Miami
#2 Auburn
#3 Oklahoma
#4 Wisconsin
#5 USC

#4 vs #5. Winner players #1.

The only other way to include the champs is to have an 8 team playoff with 5 auto and 3 at large.

Something does need to be done though.

Another crazy scenario,

Auburn wins SEC
Wisconsin loses to 11-2 OSU in CCG
OU loses to 11-2 TCU in CCG
Miami 13-0 beats Clemson

You'd have:

1. Miami 13-0
2. Auburn 11-2
3. Bama 11-1
4. Clemson/TCU/OSU/OU 11-2
5. Wisconsin 12-1 non champ
6. ND 10-2

I think you'd have to take OSU as a P5 champ, or possibly Wisconsin if they lose a tight game to OSU. Clemson would have a case as well if they lose close to Miami.

These things seem obvious to me, and not just right for right now, but these are immutable, NO changes in the coming weeks can alter them:

1) the PAC is out. No PAC team can make the playoffs.

2) Notre Dame is out as well, no chance to make the top four.

3) The Big 12 and B1G cannot get two teams in the playoffs.

4) For the SEC or ACC to get two teams in, Alabama and Miami cannot finish undefeated. If either is undefeated after their CCG, then their conference gets only one team in (them).

5) Auburn, Oklahoma, and Clemson have no margin for error, every game they play is a "playoff" game in the sense that if they lose another game, they cannot make the playoffs.

6) Unlike last year, there can be no team that is in the playoffs that is not a conference champ and is the sole representative from their conference. If a team gets in that is not conference champ, it can only be because their conference gets two teams in (their conference champ as well), and by (4), those teams can only come from the ACC or SEC; and from (5) we know that those teams cannot be Auburn or Clemson, as they can only get in as conference champs.

So that means that the playoffs will consist of either (a) the champs of the B1G, SEC, ACC, and Big 12, or (b) the champs of three of those with two from the SEC, or © the champs of three of those with two from the ACC, or (d) two SEC and two ACC teams (very unlikely, but possible).

So if you are the B1G or the Big 12, the threat to your conference not making the playoffs comes from a second team from the ACC or SEC.


Finally, these teams 100% control their own destiny:

Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Auburn

(11-16-2017 08:48 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Finally, these teams 100% control their own destiny:

Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Auburn

I think Ohio State and Georgia likely do as well. Ohio State will have beaten Michigan and Wisconsin, and will benefit from the two losses handed out among Alabama, Auburn and Georgia.

If Georgia wins the SEC CCG, Auburn and Alabama will have picked up an additional loss each, clearing room for Georgia into the top four. Even if Alabama has only one loss, Georgia would have only one lossand the conference championship. This is different from the Ohio State/Penn State situation last year, where OSU had one loss compared to PSU's two losses.

(11-16-2017 09:07 AM)orangefan Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 08:48 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Finally, these teams 100% control their own destiny:

Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Auburn

I think Ohio State and Georgia likely do as well. Ohio State will have beaten Michigan and Wisconsin, and will benefit from the two losses handed out among Alabama, Auburn and Georgia. If Georgia wins the SEC CCG, Auburn and Alabama will have picked up an additional loss each, clearing room for Georgia into the top four.

I agree that if Ohio State and Georgia win out, they are likely to make the playoffs, but it's not certain. And "controlling your destiny" has no room for iffiness. If it's not 100%, then you don't control your destiny, so that's why i left them out.

I wouldn't necessarily count out Notre Dame yet in any fashion. can come up with a pretty easy scenario
Michigan beats Ohio St
Ohio St beats Wisconsin(Big Ten 100% out) Would say Michigan beating Wisconsin and Wisconsin beating Ohio St does the same thing.
TCU beats Oklahoma(Big 12 100% out)
Alabama beats Auburn, Georgia
Miami beats Clemson

Alabama, Miami are in easily. Notre Dame is pretty darn close to being the next team in. And even if Clemson beats Miami- I think the final 4 there then is Alabama, Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame.